A Silent Revolution?
| Published date | 01 September 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20419058241282451 |
| Author | Peter Geoghegan |
| Date | 01 September 2024 |
SEPTEMBER 2024•POLITICAL INSIGHT3
A Silent
Revolution?
July’s General Election was
remarkable in many ways. A
Conservative Party that had been
in power for 14 years was dealt a
record defeat. A Labour Party that had
failed so badly in 2019 was swept into
power with a massive majority.
But Britain’s General Election was
remarkable in other ways, too. Even the
most partisan observer would admit that
the scale of Labour’s victory was hardly
a ringing endorsement for the party: the
vote share secured by Sir Keir Starmer was
only fractionally above the nadir under
Jeremy Corbyn four and a half years earlier.
The Liberal Democrats’ vote increased
by less than a single percentage point,
yet its seat tally increased nine-fold. Nigel
Farage’s Reform UK won five seats, the
Green party four. Turnout was just 60 per
cent.
In this bumper issue we delve into the
General Election result: what happened,
why, and what it means for the future.
Across five pages, John Curtice analyses
how Britain voted in 2024 and finds
an increasingly fragmented electorate.
The coalition of voters that swept Boris
Johnson to power in 2019 deserted the
Tories in droves: some went to Labour and
the Lib Dems, some to Reform and even
the Greens, and some stayed at home.
But while Keir Starmer won a landslide,
his own coalition is far from secure. In the
regular In Focus slot, Benjamin D. Hennig
maps the General Election result and finds
that while Labour made huge gains, its
bedrock of support is surprisingly shallow
in many places.
The Conservatives lost on the key
elements of what is called ‘valence’
politics: the public no longer trusted them
on competence, leadership, and delivery.
But, as Paula Surridge shows, the election
result was also a product of Brexit, and
how it has reshaped British politics around
liberal versus authoritarian values.
In one important respect, 2024 was
a silent revolution. While the House of
Commons remains dominated by Labour
and the Conservatives, who hold 84 per
cent of the British seats, the share of votes
going to the ‘big two’ dropped below
60 per cent for the first time since the
universal franchise was introduced. As Rob
Ford explores, with four in every ten voters
casting a ballot backing fresh options, the
hold of the traditional two-party duopoly
has never been weaker.
At the same time, we should recognise
the scale of Starmer’s achievements. He
has become just the seventh Labour
Prime Minister. What kind of premier will
Starmer be? Karl Pike explores the Labour
leader’s personal and political history, and
finds a man whose cautious, technocratic
instincts place him firmly on the ‘labourist’
wing of his party’s history.
And what of the defeated
Conservatives? Having lost more than
250 seats, the Tories could be forgiven for
thinking that they will never re-emerge.
But how can a party recover from seismic
defeat? Paula Keaveney looks back at
political history in search of answers.
Elsewhere, concerns about threats
to politicians have been growing. But
what is the public’s view of abuse and
intimidation directed at MPs? Sarah Shair-
Rosenfield, Robert Johns, Reed M. Wood,
and Graeme A.M. Davies report on new
research that found some surprisingly
upbeat results.
One issue that is nowhere near as
high on the political agenda as it should
be is disability. Almost a quarter of the
British population are disabled – but
there are only a handful of disabled MPs
in Parliament and disability issues rarely
feature. This needs to change, write
Elizabeth Evans and Stefanie Reher.
Britain, of course, is not the only country
going to the polls this year. All eyes will be
on November’s US presidential election.
In the Last Word slot, Emma Long looks at
how Republican Donald Trump’s support
for strict abortion bans could push critical
moderate voters to his Democratic
opponent Kamala Harris.
Meanwhile, Thomas Gift looks at the
politics, and the future, of an institution
that could play a play a key role in the
outcome of the presidential election: the
Supreme Court. Joe Biden will not be
running but how important is his foreign
policy legacy? Christopher Featherstone
examines the evidence.
Elsewhere in the world, the African
National Congress unexpectedly lost its
majority in May’s South African elections.
That result marks the end of the liberation
government era and a coming of age
for the country’s politics, writes Stephen
Chan. Rekha Diwakar looks at recent
election results in India, which saw
Prime Minister Narendra Modi lose his
parliamentary majority.
It’s been a hectic year so far, with so
much more to come. Whatever happens
in the coming months,
Political Insight
will
be there, bringing you expert research,
analysis and commentary on the issues
that matter.
Peter Geoghegan
Editor
Political Insight September 2024 BU.indd 3Political Insight September 2024 BU.indd 321/08/2024 16:2321/08/2024 16:23
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