Site-specific technical and economic analysis of wind power potential and energy generation using Weibull parameters
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/WJSTSD-10-2016-0058 |
| Pages | 35-53 |
| Published date | 02 January 2018 |
| Date | 02 January 2018 |
| Author | Zahid Hussain Hulio,Wei Jiang |
| Subject Matter | Public policy & environmental management,Environmental technology & innovation |
Site-specific technical and
economic analysis of wind power
potential and energy generation
using Weibull parameters
Zahid Hussain Hulio and Wei Jiang
School of Mechanical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China
Abstract
Purpose –The purpose of this paper is to find out a new potential site for energy generation to maximize the
energy generation via installing utility wind turbines.
Design/methodology/approach –In this paper, Weibull two-parameter methodologies are used to
determine the effectiveness of the wind speed at three different heights including 80, 60 and 30 m. Standard
deviation and wind power density (WPD) are also calculated for the site. After analyzing the wind resource,
the wind turbine selection is materialized to maximize the energy production, considering the best
configuration of the wind turbines that is suitable for the site. In the end, economic aspect is also calculated.
Findings –The mean Weibull dimens ionless parameter kis found to be 2.91, 2.845 and 2.617, respectively.
The mean Weibull scale p arameter cis found to be 6.736, 6.524 and 6.087 at the heights of 80, 60 and 30 m,
respectively. The mean standard deviation is found to be 2.297, 2.249 and 2.157 at the heights of 80, 60 and
30 m at the heights of 80, 60 and 30 m, respectively. Wind power densities are calculated to be 265, 204 and
157.9 W/m
2
at the heights of 80, 60 an d 30 m, respectively (highest in the month of July when th e mean wind
speed is 7.707 m/s and WPD is 519 W/m
2
). Finally, site-specifi c economic analysis of wind turbin es is
carried out, which shows $0.0230 per kWh at the height of 80 m.
Originality/value –The results show that the site is beneficial for the installation of small and large
wind turbines.
Keywords Energy production, Economic analysis, Capacity factor, Weibull parameters kand c,
Wind analysis, Wind power density
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
Pakistan is an energy deficit country whose energy needs are solely fulfilled by oil and
gas (Figure 1). The oil imports rose 3.8 percent per year after 1991 up to 2014. Similarly,
the demand rose again in the year 2015 by 4.4 percent. The average price of oil in 2001
was $23 barrel, and within the same year, the price of oil increased rapidly to reach a
value of $50.05 barrel. This was an almost 115 percent rise in the price in a short span
of time. Energy availability of any country has a direct relation with its
socio-economic growth. According to the national economic review, the country
witnessed a decrease of 4.5 percent in the GDP in the last few years due to energy
shortages. It resulted in closing of factories, thus paralyzing the industrial production
and exacerbating unemployment.
The other important reason behind the energy crisis is the worst financial position
of the country. In simple words, the liquidity ratio of the country is very low.
The current demand for electricity is 19,000 MW, whereas the supply is 10,500 MW.
The supply and demand gap is 8,500 MW. This gap can be overcome by the renewable
energy resources, including solar energy and wind energy. According to National
Renewable Energy Laboratories (NREL), Pakistan has a total of 61,650 m
2
land
appropriate for the installation of wind turbines. It accounts for 8 percent of the total land,
i.e. 770,875 m
2
. The coastal belt of Sindh and Baluchistan has been termed as the wind
corridor of the country (Shami et al., 2016).
World Journal of Science,
Technology and Sustainable
Development
Vol. 15 No. 1, 2018
pp. 35-53
© Emerald PublishingLimited
2042-5945
DOI10.1108/WJSTSD-10-2016-0058
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:
www.emeraldinsight.com/2042-5945.htm
35
Site-specific
technical and
economic
analysis
2. Literature review
Kaldellis described the past perspectives of fossil fuels and discussed the importance of
wind energy to overcome the need of electricity (Kaldellis and Zafirakis, 2011).
Mostafaeipour et al. (2011) conducted a feasibility study of the wind energy potential of
Shahrbabak city of Kaman province of Iran. The authors used a two-parameter Weibull
distribution function for wind analysis. Mostafaeipour (2010) in his another feasibility study
of Yazd province of Iran used the extrapolation method for the wind analysis at the height of
10 m. Keyhani et al. (2010) investigated the influence of wind climate on the energy
production of Tehran, the capital city of Iran, and analyzed metrological wind records at the
altitude of 10 m. Kwon (2010) investigated the wind uncertainty of the Kwangyang bay and
calculated it to be 11 percent.
Mohammadi and Mostafaeipour (2013) estimated the wind power potential of
Zarinah and used standard deviation and wind powerdensity (WPD) methods to find the
accurate WPD of the site. Mostafaeipour et al. (2013) investigated the wind potential of
Binalood of Iran and concluded that the site has a potential for installation of wind
turbines at the heights of 10, 30 and 40 m. Mirhosseini et al. (2011) conducted a feasibility
study of five towns of Saman province of Iran.Thestudywasbasedonthecollectionof
wind data at the heights of 10, 30 and 40 m. Baseer et al. (2017) analyzed the wind
resources of seven locations in Jubail, Saudi Arabia. The authors estimated Weibull
parameters by using the maximum likelihood, least-squares regression method and
WAsP algorithm.
Dahmouni et al. (2011) investigated wind variation at the heights of 10, 20 and 30 m for
energy production, considering 1.5 MW wind turbine for Borj-Cedria of Tunisia.
Li and Li (2005) assessed the wind energy potential for Waterloo, Canada. Lashin and
Shata (2012) analyzed the wind resources for energy generation at Port Said of Egypt.
Himri et al. (2012) conducted the feasibility study based on eight years record of the wind
speed at Tindouf of Algeria. Đurišićand Mikulović(2012) conducted the study of wind
energy potential for the South Banat region of Serbia and developed a mathematical
model based on the least-squares method andconcludedthatthesiteissuitablefor
setting up the wind farm. Rehman et al. (2012) studied the wind power potential of seven
sites in Saudi Arabia and used Weibull parameters to study the wind speed
characteristics at three heights.
Ouarda et al. (2015) evaluated the wind speed with reference to probability density
function and used suitable PDF to minimize the wind power estimation error.
Al-Abbadi (2005) assessed the wind power potential of Yanbu, Saudi Arabia. The wind
data analyzed on annual, seasonal and diurnal basis suggested that the site has a potential
for installation of small wind turbines. Bassyouni et al. (2015) analyzed the wind
(a)
45.14%
0.4%
47.14% 4.31%
3.01%
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
Hydro
(b)
33.53%
0.8%
47.65%
15.62%
2.4%
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
Hydro
Notes: (a) 1978; (b) 2010
Figure 1.
Comparative
statement of usage
of energy resources
in Pakistan
36
WJSTSD
15,1
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