SOME ASPECTS OF NUCLEAR POWER ECONOMICS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM1
| Published date | 01 June 1969 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.1969.tb00029.x |
| Date | 01 June 1969 |
| Author | M. G. Webb |
SOME ASPECTS
OF
NUCLEAR POWER ECONOMICS
IN THE
UNITED
KINGDOM'
M.
G.
WEBB
COMMERCIAL quantities of electricity have now been generated from
nuclear sources in the U.K. for over ten years.2 During those ten
years the economic outlook for nuclear power stations was constantly
changing. At one time the prospects for cheap electricity from nuclear
sources would appear very bright, while at another time they would
appear very dismal indeed. What has happened to nuclear electricity
economics during this period?
Why
have its prospects been
so
vola-
tile? Why were the early nuclear generating cost estimates inaccurate?
It is with these and other related questions that this paper is
~oncerned.~
The paper is
in
four
sections. Section
I
is concerned with the First
United Kingdom Nuclear Power Programme' and in particular with
the reasons for the inaccurate cost estimates made in that programme.
Section
II
analyses the costs incurred by the late commissioning
or
below estimated availability of the nuclear stations; costs which may
be important but which are generally omitted from published generat-
1
The author wishes to acknowledge the helpful comments on a draft of
this paper received from Dr.
R.
W.
Bates, Mr.
J.
Bonner and individuals in
the C.E.G.B. and U.K.A.E.A.
The Queen opened Calder Hall, the world's first industrial nuclear power
station, on
17th
October,
1956.
Since that date approximately
45,000
million
units of electricity have been generated from nuclear sources in the U.K. At
the present time
12
per cent. of annual total generation and
84
per cent.
of
peak generation is from nuclear
stations.
Other questions relating to nuclear power economics
in
the U.K., such
as
'
was it a mistap for the U;K. to concentrate its resources
on
the gas-cooled
type of reactor? and
also
was the type
of
nuclear industry organisation
chosen by the U.K. that most likely to lead to the development
of
low
generating cost nuclear stations?
'
are treated in an interesting but controversial
study recently published
by
Duncan Bum:
The Political Economy
of
Nuclear
Energy
(The Institute
of
Economic Affairs,
1967).
The study contrasts nuclear
developments in the USA. and U.K.
4Under this programme nine stations with a total installed capacity
of
4805
MW
have either been
or
are being built.
The
stations with their capacities
are as follows:
Net Output Commis- Net Output Comm's-
Capacity sioning Capacity
sioning
Station
in
MW
Year Station
in
MW
Year
Bradwell
300
1%2
Dungeness
A
550 1965
Berkeley
275 1962
Trawsfynydd
500
1965
Hunters ton
320 1964
Sizewell
580 1965
Hinkley Point
A
500 1965
Oldbury
600 1966
Wylfa
1180 1968
22
ASPECTS
OF
NUCLEAR
POWER
ECONOMICS
IN
THE
UNITED
KINGDOM
23
ing cost estimates. Section
I11
considers whether the costing assump-
tions of the First Nuclear Power Programme of a
20
year station life
and a station lifetime load factor of
75
per cent. still appear valid. Sec-
tion
IV
briefly considers some of the achievements of nuclear electricity
economics
in
the last decade.
1
The
First
Nuclear
Power
Programme
This programme was announced5
in
1955, a year before Calder
Hall,
the first nudear power station in the world to produce electricity
on
a commercial scale, was commissioned. The programme, based
on
the Calder Hall type of reactors6 was for a total of between
1500
and
2000
MW'
to be in operation by 1965. The main objective of the
programme was to enable 'The Electricity Authorities and private
industry to obtain as quickly as possible the practical experience in
designing and building nuclear power stations that
will
be the neces-
sary
foundation for a big expansion'8 in later years.
An
industrial
base was to be established which would permit the
large
scale exploita-
tion of the new fuel
as
a substantial contribution towards the country's
growing energy needs. The immediate justification
for
the programme
in
1955 was the shortage of coal-in that year we imported
11.5
million
tons-and the desire to widen the energy base of the economy
with the introduction of a third major fuel. Given
this
objective it is
not surprising that the decision to build nuclear power stations
was
taken by the government and not by the central Electricity Authority
(the predecessor of the C.E.G.B.)? the body which would be respon-
sible for the operation of the stations.
The white paper stated that the first programme
was
to be flexible
in
size according to the
success
or otherwise of the first stations. It
is
a major criticism of
this
programme that it has not
been
flexible
enough, particularly in a downward direction.
This
point
will
be
returned to later."
A
Programme
of
Nuclear
Power,
Cmnd. 9389,
H.M.S.O.,
February, 1955.
These reactors are carbon-dioxide cooled, graphite moderated
and
use a
faturd yanium fuel clad
in
a magnesium
alloy,
and are generally
known
as
magnox
.
'
1
MW=lOOO
KW:
sThat this was the case was stated
in
evidence to the Select Committee
on Nationalised Industries,
The
Elecfricity
Supply
Industry,
House
of Com-
mons Papers 236-1,
May,
1963, para. 365. The white paper
was
drafted and
then
shown
to
the
C.E.A.
for comment. Given the information available the
C.E.A.
accepted the proposals as
a
reasonable approach to the commercial
development
of
nuclear power.
Cmnd. 9389, op. cit, para. 24.
lo
See pages 25 and 26.
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