The Conservatives’ Generational Timebomb
| Date | 01 June 2019 |
| DOI | 10.1177/2041905819854318 |
| Author | Guy Miscampbell,Will Tanner |
| Published date | 01 June 2019 |
| Subject Matter | Last Word |
40 POLITICAL INSIGHT • JUNE 2019
Last Word
The Tories face a fight or die
moment with younger voters,
write Guy Miscampbell and
Will Tanner.
Received wisdom dictates that people
are born on the left and grow up
leaning right. The checkpoints on this
political trajectory have always been
well-understood: when young people get their
rst paycheck, start paying taxes, or think about
getting their rst foot on the property ladder,
the idealism of the left tends to give way to the
hard-headedness of the right.
Onward’s research, published in March,
conrms that the rst part of this story remains
true. Nearly two thirds – 62 per cent – of 18-24
year olds say they would vote Labour if there
was an election today, compared to only 14
per cent who would vote Conservative. Young
people remain left-wing – and have in fact
moved leftwards in recent years. But the second
half of the fable is being rewritten.
People are no longer switching to
conservatism in their thirties and forties with
similar vigour. The age at which a person is more
likely to vote Conservative than Labour has risen
by four years, from 47 to 51 years old, since the
last election result, and by 17 years since before
the campaign started. The Conservative Party is
facing a midlife crisis. Nearly half (49 per cent) of
Conservative voters are over the retirement age.
This is partly because the points of conversion
are growing later. Young people are unable to
buy a home until much later, they tend to have
little disposable income for longer, and around
half struggle with student loan repayments.
Younger voters also tend to be more socially
liberal, more ethnically diverse and have higher
education levels, all of which correlate with left-
wing voting. But this only tells part of the story.
The correlation with education is primarily
a factor of age, not learning. The gap in vote
intention between young graduates and
young non-graduates is only three points,
while older graduates and older non-graduates
The Conservatives’
Generational Timebomb
are similarly politically aligned. Similarly, while
cities may appear to be Labour strongholds,
this is primarily because they play host to more
young people: 59 per cent of under-35s living
in villages say they will vote Labour and 16 per
cent Conservative, whereas the gures are 57
per cent and 18 per cent respectively in cities.
Age, not class, income or background, is the key
dividing line in politics today.
The drivers for the growing age divide are
complex, but possible to model. We found that
ve factors are driving the generational shift
more than any other. First, housing tenure –
the decline in home ownership is hurting the
Conservatives. Second, younger generations
are substantially more socially liberal than
previous generations. Third, national and
economic optimism – or lack of it. Fourth,
younger generations are more economically
left-wing than their parents and grandparents.
And nally, age – as a standalone unexplained
factor once everything else had been
controlled for.
This suggests that young people are
structurally less likely to vote Conservative,
once all other contextual data is controlled
for – a cohort eect. The pitch is skewing
towards Labour. When we plotted the actual
Conservative age curve against the projected
age curve developed from contextual factors,
this was conrmed. The Conservatives
underperform by a considerable margin among
young people, but it is counterbalanced by a
premium among older voters.
As younger generations get older, they
will vote Conservative later than previous
generations, and slower than the population is
ageing. The lifecycle eect we would normally
expect will not take its course and the base will
slowly decline.
Yet Conservatives have reason to hope for a
turnaround. We identied three million under-
35s who would consider voting Conservative
but would not do so if an election were
held tomorrow, a large group within reach if
the right messages are relayed and policies
adopted. Brexit is not a key barrier: they split by
roughly 48:52 in the referendum.
On economic issues, their left-wing views
seem more motivated by capitalism not
functioning properly rather than a desire to
overthrow it. Younger voters are more likely
to support lower-taxes, fewer regulations, and
public service reform than older generations,
and instinctively support reducing immigration
and living within our means as a country.
Thus, for Conservatives at least, the sword
is double edged. The challenge posed by the
growing political age gap is considerable and
will, left untouched, put a majority out of reach
before too long. But if they can satisfy younger
generations’ material and policy desires, there
is a considerable intergenerational coalition to
be built. We will wait and see whether anyone
has the courage to seize the initiative.
Guy Miscampbell and Will Tanner work for
Onward, a centre-right think tank.
50
40
30
20
10
0
19 29 39 49 59 69 79
Conservatives suffer from a
discount amongst younger
voters – even once their
housing situation, economic
and social views, and ethnicity
are taken into account
Conservatives benefit from a large
premium amongst older voters,
over and above their underlying
attitudes/etnicity/home tenure
Age
Prediction of Conservative vote %
– Vote estimated based on views, ethnicity and housing tenure
– Actual vote
Source: Onward/Hanbury Strategy Poll
Political Insight May 2019.indd 40 08/05/2019 10:56
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