The End of Global Poverty: Is the UN Sustainable Development Goal 1 (Still) Achievable?
| Published date | 01 September 2021 |
| Author | Christopher Hoy,Andy Sumner |
| Date | 01 September 2021 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12992 |
The End of Global Poverty: Is the UN
Sustainable Development Goal 1 (Still)
Achievable?
Christopher Hoy
Australian National University
Andy Sumner
King’s College London
Abstract
This paper asks whether the UN Sustainable Development Goal to end poverty is achievable in the aftermath of the COVID-19
pandemic. We discuss various estimates of the poverty impact of the pandemic. We then differentiate growth-poverty-
inequality pathways based on empirical observations from developing countries over the last 25 years. We take the most equi-
table growth pathways (characterised by mean household income/consumption expenditure growth per capita with the lar-
gest falls in inequality) and least equitable growth pathways (mean household income/consumption expenditure growth per
capita with the largest rises in inequality) as a basis to extrapolate potential scenarios for poverty levels in 2030. Our main
finding is that the SDG to end poverty is achievable (or something close) if the impact of the pandemic on income poverty is
addressed and countries are able to follow the most equitable growth pathway after the pandemic has abated. In short, the
greatest poverty reduction, and greatest likelihood of attaining the SDG poverty reduction goals, will occur if economic
growth is combined with inequality reduction. In other words redistribution with growth.
Policy Implications
•Our main finding is that the SDG-1 to end extreme poverty at the $1.90 line is achievable if the impact of the pandemic
on income poverty is addressed and countries are able to follow the most equitable growth pathway after the pandemic
has abated; though this would still leave much poverty at more reasonable lines of $3.20 and $5.50-per-day.
•Our conclusion is that given that growth itself will be challenging post-pandemic due to foreign debt servicing and on-
going COVID-19 costs, both national and global redistribution via public policy will be needed to meet the SDG to end
extreme poverty.
•We note the achievement of falling inequality will only be politically feasible with the resumption of reasonable growth in
developing countries because inequality reducing measures are politically difficult and unlikely in the absence of economic
growth.
1.Ending poverty (kind of)
In this paper we ask whether the UN Sustainable Develop-
ment Goal (SDG) to eradicate poverty is achievable in the
aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. SDG 1 aims to end
poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030 (see UNDESA,
2020). Target 1.1 outlines the poverty indicator as the inter-
national poverty line developed by the World Bank, referred
to as the ‘extreme poverty’line and revised from $1.25 in
2005 purchasing power parity (PPP) to $1.90 per day in
2011 PPP (see Ferreira et al., 2016 for history, methodology,
and revisions; and critique of Reddy and Lahoti, 2015). The
$1.90 international poverty line is the median average of
the national poverty lines of low-income countries in 2011
PPP and sits alongside higher poverty lines of $3.20 and
$5.50 per day, which are respectively the median averages
of the national poverty lines of lower- and upper-middle
income countries (LMICs and UMICs, respectively) (see Jol-
liffe and Prydz, 2016).
1.
Projections of poverty levels at the extremepoverty line in
2030 were, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, generally posi-
tive about the plausibility of reducing extreme poverty to
low levels (see in 2005 PPP, Chandy et al., 2013; Dercon and
Lea, 2012; Ncube et al., 2014; Ravallion, 2012, 2013 and in
2011 PPP, Lakner, Mahler et al., 2020). Previous studies have
though tended to project future levels of poverty based on a
set of assumptions about inequality that have limited
reference to developing countries’empirical experience.
2.
Furthermore, studies have often focused on the lowest –
extreme –poverty line whereas debates about the value of
international poverty lines have indicated that the reduction
Global Policy (2021) 12:4 doi: 10.1111/1758-5899.12992©2021 Durham University and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Global Policy Volume 12 . Issue 4 . September 2021419
Research Article
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