The homicide drop in England and Wales 2004–2014
| DOI | 10.1177/1748895820930761 |
| Date | 01 January 2022 |
| Published date | 01 January 2022 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/1748895820930761
Criminology & Criminal Justice
2022, Vol. 22(1) 3 –23
© The Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/1748895820930761
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The homicide drop in England
and Wales 2004–2014
Caroline Miles
The University of Manchester, UK
Emily Buehler
University of Oxford, UK
Abstract
After decades of rising homicide rates in the late 20th century, much of the Western world
witnessed a decline in homicide from the early-mid-1990s. In England and Wales, homicide rates
defied this trend and continued to rise for a further decade, peaking in 2004 before declining
year on year until 2014. The late onset of the decline in England and Wales presents a quandary
for dominant explanations of the broader decline, and has yet to be theorised. This article
presents a disaggregated analysis of the homicide drop in England and Wales, identifying subtypes
of homicide that appear to have driven the decline. The findings indicate changes in lifestyle,
routine activities and social/criminal justice policy as the main drivers of the homicide drop, and
contribute to international theory on homicide trends.
Keywords
Homicide decline, homicide drop, homicide trends
Introduction
Homicide rates in England and Wales witnessed consecutive increases between 2014 and
2018,1 reportedly driven by an upturn in fatal knife-attacks involving teenagers (Ellis,
2019; Younge, 2018). This incline interrupted the longer-term decline in homicide
observed from the mid-2000s, that forms the basis of this article. The steady decrease in
homicide in England and Wales between 2004 and 2014 followed a similar pattern to
Corresponding author:
Caroline Miles, Department of Criminology, School of Social Sciences, The University of Manchester,
Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, UK.
Email: caroline.miles@manchester.ac.uk
930761CRJ0010.1177/1748895820930761Criminology & Criminal JusticeMiles and Buehler
research-article2020
Article
4 Criminology & Criminal Justice 22(1)
other parts of the Western world, including the United States, Australia and much of
Europe, where the sudden downturn in homicide from the early-mid-1990s has been
well-documented and theorised. The decline in England and Wales began around a dec-
ade later and has yet to be the subject of rigorous examination. Using data from the
national Homicide Index (HI) database, this article presents the first detailed analysis of
the homicide drop in England and Wales and contributes to theory on homicide trends on
both a national and international level.
The over-arching finding is that in England and Wales, the decline in homicide was
observable across many types of homicide, but particularly evident in particular sub-
types: homicides involving younger suspects and victims, occurring in public spaces,
and involving intoxicated suspects and victims. Geographically, the analysis revealed
that the greatest decline occurred in Greater London and Greater Manchester. Although
proportionately, numbers of homicides decreased for both men and women, when
calculated as rates within the population of England and Wales, the analysis revealed
that rates of female suspects and victims remained stable throughout the period of
decline, and that the overall decrease was predominantly driven by declines in male
homicide suspects and victims. Similarly, although the percentage of homicides by
sharp instrument, compared to other methods of killing, have been steadily increasing
since the mid-2000s, the rate of homicides involving sharp instruments declined
between 2007 and 2014. In other words, despite decreasing of numbers of knife-
related homicides (calculated as rates within the ever-growing population for England
and Wales), stabbings have accounted for a growing proportion of illegal deaths for
some time.
The article begins by considering dominant approaches to understanding homicide
trends that have been used to explain the most recent decline in other countries. These
broadly incorporate cultural theories such as Elias’ (1994 [1939]) Civilising Process and
Eisner’s (2001, 2008) ‘conduct of life’ theory, and a variety of alternative explanations
routed in Felson’s (1987) Routine Activity theory, recognising the potential impact of
various factors affecting lifestyle and opportunities for fatal violence to occur.
Explanations contextualising the homicide drop with concurrent trends in non-lethal vio-
lence are also highlighted as essential to understanding changes in homicide rates, as
divergent trends in fatal and non-fatal violence demand an alternative narrative to similar
patterns in homicide and other forms of violence (Lehti, 2014).
Cross-cultural research is paramount in developing theoretical frameworks around
homicide that are country-specific and capable of informing homicide reduction strate-
gies (Lehti, 2014; Soothill and Francis, 2012), and doing so requires disaggregating
national-level homicide data. The article achieves this through presenting an analysis of
homicide data for England and Wales (covering the period 2003–2015), using data from
the national HI database. By observing whether the decline occurred across all types of
homicides or in particular subtypes, a more nuanced understanding is developed. The
key findings are discussed in context with concurrent trends in non-lethal violence, the
recent increase in homicide and dominant theoretical explanations. Rather than pointing
towards a general decline in fatal violence associated with traditional Eliasian (cultural
pacification) theory, the findings point to alternative explanations, namely, changes in
the lifestyle and routine activities of particular groups, policies aimed at reducing
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