The Multiverse of Taiwan’s Future: Reconsidering the Independence–Unification (Tondu) Attitudes
| Published date | 01 November 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/14789299231193572 |
| Author | Fang-Yu Chen,Austin Horng-En Wang,Charles KS Wu,Yao-Yuan Yeh |
| Date | 01 November 2024 |
https://doi.org/10.1177/14789299231193572
Political Studies Review
2024, Vol. 22(4) 784 –802
© The Author(s) 2023
Article reuse guidelines:
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DOI: 10.1177/14789299231193572
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The Multiverse of Taiwan’s
Future: Reconsidering the
Independence–Unification
(Tondu) Attitudes
Fang-Yu Chen1, Austin Horng-En Wang2,
Charles KS Wu3 and Yao-Yuan Yeh4
Abstract
For decades, scholars have constructed various ways to measure Taiwanese public opinion on
the nation’s future, the independence–unification (Tondu) question. While existing surveys find
that Taiwanese people become more likely to support independence, the majority still favors
the “status quo” option. Existing measurements have a number of weaknesses. For instance,
most do not inform citizens what the “status quo” means, nor do they specify when and how
independence and unification will manifest in reality. We propose a new approach to measuring
citizens’ preferences of the nation’s future by specifying five mutually exclusive options on the
independence–unification spectrum and field a nationwide survey to illustrate the validity of
the new typology. Compared with traditional measurements, our method has more substantial
explanatory power for several key political issues in Taiwan.
Keywords
Taiwan independence, cross-strait relations, status quo, independence–unification attitudes
Accepted: 17 July 2023
Introduction
Cross-strait relations have drawn much attention from the international society, and it is
especially salient considering the escalating great power competition between the United
States and China. As China keeps claiming Taiwan as part of its territory and insisting on
the use of force to achieve unification,1 the United States is rallying its allies to deter China’s
1Department of Political Science, Soochow University, Taipei, Taiwan
2Department of Political Science, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV, USA
3Department of Political Science and Criminal Justice, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL, USA
4Department of International Studies & Modern Languages and Department of Political Science, University of
St. Thomas, Houston, TX, USA
Corresponding author:
Fang-Yu Chen, Department of Political Science, Soochow University, No.70, Lin-hsi Road, Shih-lin District,
Taipei 111002, Taiwan.
Email: chenfy@scu.edu.tw
1193572PSW0010.1177/14789299231193572Political Studies ReviewChen et al.
research-article2023
Article
Chen et al. 785
ambitions in the region.2 Under this backdrop, we argue that it is essential to accurately
measure the dynamics of public opinion in Taiwan as the political choices of citizens would
directly influence the strategic balance between the great powers and the region.
For Taiwanese citizens, the choices of their nation’s political future—either independence
or unification (the Tondu issue)3 with People’s Republic of China (PRC)—has long been one
of the most salient issues in Taiwanese politics.4 In general elections, the cross-strait relations
and identity politics are always at the center of the debates (Ogasawara, 2019). Generally
speaking, the Tondu question asks people whether they want to unify with the Mainland
China or be an independent state. On one hand, the Kuomintang (KMT, Chinese Nationalist
Party)-led, pan-blue camp, holds pro-China identities and supports a closer relationship with
China and eventually unification. On the other hand, the Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP)-led, pan-green camp, maintains that Taiwan is a sovereign independent country, while
trying to seek the status of a fully recognized (de jure) independence.
From the 1990s, scholars have constructed various ways to measure Taiwanese public
opinion on the independence and unification issue. First of all, the Election Center at
National Chengchi University developed a six-option measurement of the political rela-
tionship between Taiwan and China. With unification and independence “as soon as pos-
sible” at the two ends, it has “maintaining the status quo” in the middle, flanked by two
additional options—“move toward unification or independence.”5
The second common approach, first proposed by Wu (1993) and adapted by Niou,
(2004, 2005), added explicit conditions of unification and independence. For unification,
the survey asks if citizens would support unification if a small (large) political, economic,
and social disparity exists across the strait. For independence, the question asks if declar-
ing independence will (not) cause Mainland China to attack Taiwan, whether a citizen
would support the declaration or not.6 Finally, there are other scholars utilizing other
kinds of scales for studying public’s preferences of unification and independence, such as
a 1–10 scale (Sheng and Liao, 2017) or a combination of the first two approaches (Hsieh
and Niou, 2005). Taken together, these measurements illustrate a long-term effort to study
Taiwanese public opinion.
The major omission in existing surveys is that they often do not provide more scenar-
ios by which independence and unification will occur. The lack of clarity on the details of
the options raises questions. For instance, there are several mutually exclusive manifesta-
tions behind each option of independence and unification. One scenario of unification can
be “the Republic of China (ROC) re-unifying the Mainland”; another is “ROC becoming
part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).” Independence has even more varieties.
Some argue that Taiwan is already independent under the name of the ROC, so that, there
is no need to “declare independence.”7 Others propose establishing a whole new “Republic
of Taiwan,” which is not related to the current ROC. Suffice to say, existing surveys could
not account for these nuances.
Similarly, “status quo” could mean different things to different people. Existing sur-
veys seldom ask respondents what the status quo means. Status quo has been the most
popular option in Taiwan because, as prospect theory illustrates, people often choose the
status quo during uncertain times, no matter what the “status quo” is (Crandall et al.,
2009). This status quo option allows people to dodge taking political side (Klar and
Krupnikov, 2016) and avoid social desirability pressure. Thus, the option of status quo
runs the risk of conflating people who prefer the status quo with people who use it as a
scapegoat. Specifying the status quo allows us to have a clearer picture of public opinion
on Taiwan’s sovereignty and its future with China.
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