The Practice of Scenario Planning: An Analysis of Inter‐ and Intra‐organizational Strategizing
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8551.12098 |
| Published date | 01 January 2016 |
| Date | 01 January 2016 |
British Journal of Management, Vol. 27, 77–96 (2016)
DOI: 10.1111/1467-8551.12098
The Practice of Scenario Planning: An
Analysis of Inter- and Intra-organizational
Strategizing
Gary Bowman
Bond University, Faculty of Business, Gold Coast, Queensland, 4229, Australia
Email: gbowman@bond.edu.au
Strategic activity is often punctuated through the application of strategy tools. Despite
widespread use, a lack of understanding exists regarding the impact such tools and their
practices have on an organization’s strategy process. Of the growing body of research
tackling the phenomenon, none appears to extend beyond an intra-organizational set-
ting. Acknowledging the importance of multi-organizational partnerships, particularly
in the public sector, in this paper an attempt is made to help fill this void through exam-
ining the application and eect of a scenario planning process at an inter-organizational
level. Conceptualizing scenario planning as a practice of simplexity, where complexity of
thought combines with simplicity of action, an in-depth, longitudinal case study is used
to demonstrate the importance and interaction of sensemaking, storytelling and orga-
nizing in creating meaning within strategizing activities at the inter-organizational level.
However, also demonstrated is the relative weakness of the output of the scenario plan-
ning process −the stories −as a boundary object capable of transferring knowledge and
meaning to the intra-organizational level. Through empirical and theoretical integration
a model is developed presenting the flow of practices and artefacts used in sensemaking
within inter- and intra-organizational strategizing.
Introduction
While much is known about strategy tools and
their intended application and eect, knowledge
of how they interact with and shape strategy
processes remains underdeveloped albeit subject
to a growing corpus of research. In recent studies
(Eppler and Platts, 2009; Hodgkinson et al.,
2006; Moisander and Stenfors, 2009; Spee and
Jarzabkowski, 2009, 2011), research on single
organizational settings have dominated empirical
work, complemented with further insight from
multiple case analyses (Jarratt and Stiles, 2010;
Johnson et al., 2010; Regn´
er, 2008). With the
exception of studies on networks and strategic
alliances (e.g. Dyer and Singh, 1998; Gulati and
Singh, 1998; Higgins and Gulati, 2003; Ritala,
2012), intra-organizational studies are unsur-
prisingly dominant in the private sector oriented
strategy research domain. Within the public
sector, however, inter-organizational partnerships
are increasingly prevalent and important systems
of engagement, particularly at the strategic and
governance level (Brinkerho, 2002; Lowndes
and Skelcher, 1998). Despite this, mainstream
strategy research in a public setting (e.g. Jarz-
abkowski, 2005; Jarzabkowski and Wilson, 2002)
still gravitates to the intra-organizational, ignor-
ing processes through which strategy is shaped
in inter-organizational groups and the impact
that process and its outcomes have on ‘partner’
organizations. Accordingly, the paper addresses
specifically the use of scenario planning in an
inter-organizational setting, and an attempt is
made to understand its impact at both the inter-
and intra-organizational level.
© 2015 British Academy of Management. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4
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78 G. Bowman
Although the singular (and particularly techni-
cal) act of scenario planning has been the subject
of many studies (see,for example, Burt et al., 2006;
Godet, 2001; van der Heijden, 2005; Schoemaker,
1991, 1995; Schwartz, 1998; Wack, 1985a, 1985b),
little attention has been paid to the practices
involved and their engagement within a wider
strategy process. Adopting more of a practice
perspective helps deepen understanding beyond
the insights generated from classic process-based
studies (e.g. Godet, 2000; van der Heijden, 1997;
Schoemaker, 1995) and extends the growing ap-
preciation forthe practices that constitute scenario
planning (e.g. Bowman et al., 2013; Hodgkinson
and Healey, 2008; Hodgkinson and Wright, 2006;
Wilkinson, 2009). Theoretical guidance is thus
drawn from the concept of simplexity (Colville,
1994; Colville, Brown and Pye, 2012), the combi-
nation of complexity of thought with simplicity
of action (understood here as the flow of scenario
planning practices), which helps focus attention
on two important aspects of scenario planning:
the process and the scenarios. The former can
be conceptualized as discursive and episodic
practices combining sensemaking, organizing
and storytelling, the latter as a product of the
process – an artefact – specifically a designated
boundary object that transfers knowledge across
strategic boundaries (Bechky, 2003b; Carlile, 2002;
Spee and Jarzabkowski, 2009). Understood as an
episodic practice (e.g. a series of strategy work-
shops), external to regular administrativepractices
like budget planning (Jarzabkowski, 2005), and
with a specific purpose, there is a moment when
the scenario planning process concludes and
the outputs become part of a wider, continuous
flow of organizational sensemaking (Chia and
MacKay, 2007; Gephart, Topal and Zhan, 2010;
Johnson et al., 2010; Tsoukas and Chia, 2002;
Weick, 1993). This can be understood as a knowl-
edge transfer problem, where a series of practices
attempt to create an object (the scenarios) capable
of transferring complex knowledge to an external
body through a simple and engaging medium: a
story (usually as prose but increasingly as info-
graphical animated presentations and dramatic
plays). Framed within the sensemaking literature,
the scenarios become an object of widespread
sensegiving (Gioia and Chittipeddi, 1991) that
should become part of the on-going, external
sensemaking process. Returning to the concept
of simplexity, if scenario planning is an example
of a process of simplexity, then the scenarios, the
object of knowledge transference from internal
to external, can be understood as a product of
simplexity.
Empirical evidence is drawn from an in-depth,
longitudinal case study in which a UK local
government used scenario planning in inter-
organizational planning cycles. Groups and orga-
nizations represented in the Northshi re Partner-
ship (a pseudonym to protect the identity of the
case) comprise local council, health services, polic-
ing, education, voluntary sector etc. Together,they
were collectively responsible for over 35,000 jobs
with a combined annual budget of over £1.6 bil-
lion. Membership of the Northshire Partnership
was restricted to CEOs and elected politicians and
was supported by a local-government-led corpo-
rate policy unit. Case analysis reveals how the ap-
plication of a scenario planning process shapedthe
strategy process at the inter-organizational level
but failed to have a significant impact at the intra-
organizational level.
The contribution of the paper is threefold.First,
it enhances current understanding of strategy tools
and their role in the strategy process through de-
scribing the eectiveness of scenario planning as
a practice of simplexity at an inter-organizational
level. In doing so, limitations of the tangible out-
put of the scenario planning process are also
revealed, as the formal objects – the scenario sto-
ries – struggled against the overcrowded and ‘over-
strategized’ nature of the public sector. It is argued
that the meaning contained within the scenar-
ios was created through the inter-organizational
process, and that the stories failed to transform
meaning to those external to the process. This is
synthesized into a model depicting the flow
of practices and objects in inter- and intra-
organizational strategizing. Second, knowledge of
scenario planning is extended through both its
conceptualization as an example of simplexity (see
Colville, Brown and Pye, 2012) and through the
empirical study,which aords unique insights into
a scenario-to-strategy process. Third, much needed
theoretical and empirical insight into the inter-
organizational strategy process is provided, re-
vealing the benefits and challenges of partnership
working and identifying the public sector strat-
egy space as particularly cluttered and naturally
disparate.
© 2015 British Academy of Management.
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