THE PROBLEM OF UNECONOMIC PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN SCOTLAND

Published date01 November 1963
DOIhttp://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.1963.tb00342.x
Date01 November 1963
THE PROBLEM
OF
UNECONOMIC PUBLIC TRANSPORT
IN SCOTLAND
CHRISTOPHER
I.
SAVAGE
I
THE
recent Cameron-Kilbrandon Report on Highland transport' and
the Beeching Report on British Railways' have caused much lively
debate on the whole question of uneconomic transport in Scotland.
Both reports leave little doubt that
a
high proportion of Scotland's
public transport is uneconomic, judged by normal commercial criteria
and that the number of such services is growing. This article looks
at the nature of the problem, at the facts and at the policies that
have been suggested to meet the situation. It is concerned entirely
with rural and inter-urban transport and does not enter into the
complex questions of urban transport, commuter services and the like.
Why is
so
much transport
uneconomic
or
unremunerative?
The
terms themselves are unfortunately not free from ambig~ity,~ though
the proper test to apply is clearly the usual economist's criterion
of opportunity cost: do the resources needed to provide the service
yield a higher return in their present use than in the most profitable
alternative employment? While the financial records of transport
undertakings seldom provide
a
clear indication of opportunity costs
or of profitability, it is fairly clear that many transport services in
Scotland would fail to meet this test. There are two reasons for this:
first, Scottish geography and population distribution and second, social
and economic changes associated with rising incomes and the growth
of motor transport.
Three-quarters of Scotland's population is concentrated in the
central lowlands, an area of heavy industrial and passenger traffic and
profitable transport operation. The rest of the population is scattered.
About one-sixth lives in the north-eastern counties, much of this in
the Dundee and Aberdeen districts. The borders and south-west
of
Scotland contain few sizeable towns and population is thinly spread,
making local transport, such as the rural bus or rail branch line, un-
economic. The largest area of uneconomic transport is however the
Highlands and Islands, which accounts for one half
of
the area but only
Trcinsport Services in
the
Highlands and
Islonds
(H.M.S.O.
1963).
British Railwuys Board, The Reshaping
of
British R~ilwoys
(H.M.S.O.
See
G.
J.
Ponsonby,
'
What is An Unrernunerative Transport Service?
'
1963).
Journul
of
lnstitute
of
Transport,
March,
1963.
336
UNECONOMIC PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN SCOTLAND
337
five per cent. of the population of Scotland. Here physical geography
makes north-south communication difficult and costly, while sparse
population based mainly on
a
crofting economy makes for poor load-
ings and the impossibility
of
serving isolated settlements economically."
Of
recent social and economic changes, none has affected public
transport more than the growth of private motor transport. In the five
years
1956-61,
the number of vehicles licensed in Scotland rose from
511,000
to
729,000,
an increase of
42
per cent. or about the same as for
the whole of Britain. Cars in Scotland increased in the same period
from
280,000
to
446,000,
by about
59
per cent. compared with
54
per
cent. for the whole of Britain5
If
Scotland shares the same rate of
economic growth as the whole
of
Britain and if one accepts the fore-
casts made in the Hall Report, the number of cars may be expected
to double by
1970.8
The declining trend
of
the past decade in passenger carryings by
bus, and to
a
lesser extent by rail, is likely to be continued if not
accelerated in the coming decade.
As
passenger loadings become
poorer, more services will become uneconomic, only
to
be closed,
subsidised in
a
few cases or, perhaps, cross-subsidised from profitable
activities el~ewhere.~
I1
Scotland is served by four forms
of
transport, road, rail, sea
and air. There are no complete statistics to show their relative im-
portance either for Scotland as
a
whole or for the Highlands.
How-
ever, official statistics for the whole of Great Britain show that in
1958, 45
per cent. of freight ton-miles went by road,
35
per cent. by
rail and
20
per cent. coastwise.* This broad breakdown probably
'The whole question of Highland geography and its consequences
for
the
economics
of
transport are most ably discussed by
W.
I.
Skewis in his
Glasgow University thesis,
Trcrnsport
in
the
Highlarids
and
Zslands
(1961).
'See
Digest
of
Scottish
Statistics,
Oct. 1962, Table 22.
For
a
fuller
discussion of this topic see
J.
,F.
Sleeman, 'The Geographical Distribution of
Motor Cars in Great Britain
,
Scottish
Jorrrrial
of
Political
Economy,
Feb.
1961.
The
Transport
Needs
of
Great Britcrin
in
flie
Next
Twerify
Years
(The
Hall, Report), H.M.S.O. 1963, para. 42.
One significant factor in the decline
of
public passenger carryings in the
1950s, namely television, is unlikely to have much effect in the 1960s. Its
introduction in Scotland in the 1950s had
a
once and
for
all
effect which will
not be repeated. Cf.
Report
of
Corninittee
on
Rural
Bus
Services
(Jack
Com-
mittee), H.M.S.O.,
para.
21. and the
Lordon
Travel
Survey,
1954, wherc it was
shown that households with
a
car spent about 4/- less
a
week
on
public
transport, those with
a
motor cycle about 3/- less and those with television
aboyt 5d. less.
Ministry
of
Transport
and
Civil Aviation,
The
Transport
of
Goods
by
Road,
1958.
See
also
the
Hall
Report, 1963, Table
I,
for
more recent estimates
for road and rail only and
a
breakdown according
to
the types
of
traffic
carried.

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