The Push and Pull Factors Contributing Towards Asylum Migration from Developing Countries to Developed Countries Since 2000
| Published date | 01 December 2020 |
| Author | Nozomi Matsui,James Raymer |
| Date | 01 December 2020 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12708 |
The Push and Pull Factors Contributing
Towards Asylum Migration from Developing
Countries to Developed Countries Since 2000
Nozomi Matsui* and James Raymer**
ABSTRACT
In the early 2000s, asylum seekers went primarily to destinations their countries had historical
relationships, including former colonial ties, common languages and ethnic networks. Since
the mid-2000s, there has been a shift towards asylum seekers arriving in destinations without
such relationships. In this study, we apply spatial interaction models to understand the factors
contributing to recent asylum migration from developing countries to developed countries from
2001 to 2015. We find that the push factors of political terror, civil rights violation and pov-
erty do not result in increased asylum migration to developed countries. Instead, they act to
reduce the number of asylum seekers. We also find that interactions between a range of push
factors are important for understanding the movements and that immigration policies can have
considerable effects on the destination choices of asylum seekers.
INTRODUCTION
Asylum migration patterns have exhibited more variety across origins and destinations in recent
years compared to the 1990s (Hall, 2011) when Western Europe was the main economically devel-
oped area of destination. Other industrialized countries, such as Japan and Korea (Republic of
Korea), are now admitting considerable numbers of asylum claims. Moreover, the distribution of
asylum seekers within Europe used to be observed primarily between particular countries with
shared historical ties; now they are now being observed in countries without such ties (Middleton,
2005). These trends are associated with both technological and political shifts. Developments in
transportation, information and communication technologies have enhanced mobility of asylum
seekers, providing them with more choices in destinations. Further, asylum-policy restrictions in
traditional destination countries have forced asylum seekers to consider alternative destinations
(Brekke et al., 2017).
This study aims to understand the factors contributing to recent asylum migration from develop-
ing countries to developed countries. We first explore the mechanisms that are associated with par-
ticular groups of asylum seekers going to particular destinations. In general, (non-asylum)
international migration is driven by population size, geographical distance, economic incentives,
immigration policies and network factors. For asylum migration, political terror and civil rights
* Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting Co Ltd, Tokyo,
** Australian National University, Canberra,
The peer review history for this article is available at https://publons.com/publon/10.1111/imig.12708
doi: 10.1111/imig.12708
©2020 The Authors
International Migration ©2020 IOM
International Migration Vol. 58 (6) 2020
ISSN 0020-7985Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
violations are also important. Second, we study the interrelationships between factors, such as how
civil rights violations may exacerbate the effects of political terror.
Asylum seekers are assumed to be “proactive”in the migration process (Richmond, 1993). They
are also assumed to be influenced by factors both affecting migrants in general and those specific
to asylum seekers. To identify the contributing factors of asylum migration, spatial interaction mod-
els (Wilson, 1971; Haynes and Fotheringham, 1984) are used to analyse flows of asylum seekers
from 94 low- and middle-income countries to 25 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) countries in the years 2001–2015. Spatial interaction models are a class of
models defined by Robinson (1998, p. 222) “...to predict spatial choices reflected in flows of peo-
ple or goods between origins and destinations, expressing trade-offs between the accessibility of
alternative opportunities and perceived intrinsic ‘attractiveness’of these opportunities”.
BACKGROUND
It is only very recent that scholars have examined the factors contributing to asylum migration
(Brekke et al., 2017). Until the 1990s, there was less need for studying this topic, as asylum flows
were observed primarily between particular origins and particular destinations. For example, B€
ocker
and Havinga (1998) concluded that colonial ties were the most important factor determining where
asylum seekers sought refuge (outside their neighbouring countries) between 1985 and 1994. Kunz
(1973), on the other hand, argued that migration is highly constrained especially for “acute”refu-
gees who flee from immediate threats. That is, people escaping from great political change and
armed conflicts are overwhelmed with push factors. For these people, pull factors associated with
destination countries are unlikely to be influential in decision-making. Further, due to lack of access
to information, asylum seekers often arrive in destination countries without any prior knowledge
about the places they arrive (Havinga and B€
ocker, 1999; Day and White, 2002; Koser and Pinker-
ton, 2002; Koser and Gilbert, 2006). Finally, smuggling agencies may greatly influence the loca-
tions where asylum seekers end up (Koser and Gilbert, 2006).
In recent decades, labour migrants and asylum seekers have exhibited some similar patterns. Both
have been susceptible to the common factors including “economic, livelihood, betterment, or life-
chance considerations”(Van Hear et al., 2009, p. 4) and failures in the social system (Richmond,
1993). However, the degree to which nation-states are ensured to protect people with autonomy is
diverse. The strictness of asylum policies, which are supposed to be fair across destination coun-
tries, show disparities even after controlling for the characteristics of asylum seekers in different
countries (Holzer et al., 2000; Neumayer, 2005a; Schuster, 2011; Toshkov, 2014; Brekke et al.,
2017).
Betts (2013) contends that asylum migration should be analysed in relation to the fundamental
question: which groups of asylum seekers are entitled protection? Human-rights violations have
been found to have substantial influence on asylum migration to developed countries (Neumayer,
2005b; Hatton and Moloney, 2015; Hatton, 2016). The role of civil liberty, however, is less clear.
Some studies have concluded that the level of democracy has no impact (Schmeidl, 1997; Volger
and Ralph, 2000; Hatton, 2009) and that deteriorations in civil rights are overshadowed by the
effects of political terror. Similarly, scholars disagree on the role of economic instability. Some
studies have found that lower origin gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is associated with
higher asylum applications (Neumayer, 2005b; Hatton and Moloney, 2015; Hatton, 2016). Sch-
meidl (1997), on the other hand, contends that poverty on its own does not produce asylum seek-
ers.
When it comes to pull factors, migrant stock and economic variables, such as GDP and employ-
ment rate, were found to influence destination choice (Neumayer, 2004; Thielemann, 2004; Keogh,
Asylum migration211
©2020 The Authors. International Migration ©2020 IOM
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