The Short-Run Effects of Economic Adversity on Property Crime: An Australian Case Study
| Author | Simon Ku,Don Weatherburn,Bronwyn Lind |
| Published date | 01 August 2001 |
| Date | 01 August 2001 |
| DOI | 10.1177/000486580103400203 |
| Subject Matter | Article |
The
Short-Run Effects
of
Economic
Adversity
on
Property Crime:
An Australian Case Study
Don Weatherburn. Bronwyn Lind and Simon Ku
Bureau
of
Crime
Statistics
and
Research,
NSW,
Australia
Criminological theory
has
historically
assumed
that economic adver-
sity increases crime rates because
it
increases the motivation
to offend.This assumption
appears
supported in cross-sectional
studies
of
the relationship between economic adversity and crime but time
series studies have generally produced much less consistent results.
Attempts to resolve this anomaly without abandoning the motivational
hypothesis
have
met with mixed
success.
The purpose
of
this paper is to
test
the motivational assumption using
monthly
data drawn
from
a period dUring which a severe recession occurred. The results of the
study do
not
support the motivational assumption. Alternative
explana-
tions of the aggregate.level relationship between economic adversity
and property crime are
canvassed.
Con vent ional wisdom and criminological theory unite in the assumption that
economic
stress increases
crime
by increasing
the
motivation
to offend.
The
balance of empirical evidence certainly supports the proposition that crime
and economic stress are in some way linked (Braithwaite, 1979; Chiricos, 1987;
Belknap, 1989; Box, 1987; Allen, 1996). But there is enough non-confirming
evidence
to
raise significant doubts about the mechanism which links them. In his
review of the aggregate-level research on unemployment and crime, for example,
Chiricos
(1987)
found
that
cross-sectional
tests for an association
between
unemployment and crime have produced evidence which overwhelmingly favours
the
existence of a strong positive unemployment-property crime relationship.
However most times series tests involving property crime did not yield evidence
of a significant positive relationship at all. Among those which did, 14% were
significantly negative.
There have been several attempts to resolve
the
inconsistent results of time
series studies without abandoning
the
notion
that
economic stress increases aggre-
gate crime rates by increasing the motivation to offend.
Cantor
and Land (1985)
argued
that
the
rise in unemployment associated with an economic downturn
Address for correspondence: Dr Don Weatherbum, Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research,
GPO
Box
6,
Sydney
2001
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134
THEAUSTRALlAN
AND NEW
ZEALAND
JOURNAL
OFCRIMINOlOGY
VOUJl'1E
J4
NUHIEA
2
2001
...
134-148
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