The silliness of magical realism
| Date | 01 April 2019 |
| Author | Kevin M Clermont |
| DOI | 10.1177/1365712718813797 |
| Published date | 01 April 2019 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Article
The silliness of magical realism
Kevin M Clermont
Ziff Professor of Law, Cornell University, Ithaca, USA
Abstract
Relative plausibility, even after countless explanatory articles, remains an underdeveloped
model bereft of underlying theory. Multivalent logic, a fully developed and accepted system of
logic, comes to the same endpoint as relative plausibility. Multivalent logic would thus provide
the missing theory, while it would resolve all the old problems of using traditional probability
theory to explain the standards of proof as well as the new problems raised by the relative
plausibility model. For example, multivalent logic resolves the infamous ‘conjunction paradox’
that traditional probability creates for itself, and which relative plausibility tries to sweep under
the rug.
Yet Professors Allen and Pardo dismiss multivalent logic as magical realism when applied to
legal factfinding. They reject this ring buoy because they misunderstand nonclassical logic, as
this response explains.
Keywords
civil procedure, evidence, logic, standards of proof
The ancient Chinese believed that a celestial animal would try to devour the sun during a solar eclipse.
Accordingly, during an eclipse, they would make all sorts of noise by beatingdrumsandchantingto
scareoffthedevourer.
1
If the ancient Greeks had sailed over to explain that the moon was travelling
between the earth and sun, the Chinese would have angrily accused the foreigners of magical realism
2
and continued in their ways. After all, the Chinese approach worked, as the sun would remarkably
reappear every time.
Professors Allen and Pardo characterise my approach to understanding the standards of proof as
magical realism. But they have misunderstood what my theory maintains and how the underlying
mathematical logic gives it support.
Corresponding author:
Kevin M Clermont, Ziff Professor of Law, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
E-mail: kmc12@cornell.edu
1. See Ancient Civilizations Created Myths to Explain Solar Eclipses (2017), available at: www. gaia.com/lp/content/these-
ancient-civilizations-had-strange-beliefs-about-the-solar-eclipse/ (accessed 5 November 2018). Today’s Mandarin words for
eclipses derive from the root ‘shi’, which means ‘to eat’. See Metcalfe (2017).
2. See Allen and Pardo (2019: 50) (defining this literary movement as centrally contending that ‘the combination of realism with
mystical elements may heighten readers’ appreciation of their own sense of reality’).
The International Journalof
Evidence & Proof
2019, Vol. 23(1-2) 147–153
ªThe Author(s) 2018
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DOI: 10.1177/1365712718813797
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