The State of the Union
| Author | Peter Geoghegan |
| DOI | 10.1177/2041905820958813 |
| Published date | 01 September 2020 |
| Date | 01 September 2020 |
SEPTEMBER 2020•POLITICAL INSIGHT3
The State of
the Union
In late July, Donald Trump did what he
often does. He took to Twitter to issue
a warning. This time, the President’s
threats were not aimed at China, or
the Democrats, but at American democracy
itself.
Trump suggested that November’s
election might have to be delayed because
of fraudulent postal voting. Allowing the
vote to go ahead would, he wrote, ‘be a
great embarrassment to the USA.’
Trump’s tweet was not completely
unexpected. Some commentators have
long warned that a president who refused
to say whether he would honour the result
on the eve of the 2016 poll is unlikely to
leave the White House unwillingly.
Others read Trump’s missive as a sign
of his weakness amid poor poll numbers
and a chaotic response to the COVID-19
pandemic. Almost all took comfort in the
law, which effectively requires bi-partisan
support to postpone a presidential
election.
But time and again, Donald Trump
has shown that the brakes on American
presidential action are more norms than
rules. From conflicts of interest to involving
himself in live investigations, Trump has
shown little care for the institutions of
American democracy.
Four years ago, even Trump’s fiercest
critics believed that the US’s institutions
would protect the republic from his
excesses. That this has not happened is less
about Trump’s power, and more about the
reality of the institutions themselves.
As Richard Johnson argues in this issue’s
cover story, the institutions of American
government were never designed to
constrain the White House. From the rise
of executive orders to the workings of
the Supreme Court, the story for more
than a century has been one of growing
presidential power.
Trump’s victory in 2016 was remarkable
in many ways. Despite losing the popular
vote heavily, less than 80,000 votes in three
swing states delivered him victory. What
are the chances of repeating that success
again? John E. Owens examines the polling
data and finds the odds stacked against a
Republican victory in November.
Black women represent an increasingly
important cohort in electoral politics. Emilia
Belknap and Skyler Hawkins chart the
growing power of Black women in America,
from the Black Lives Matter movement to
the 2020 presidential election.
Elsewhere, Bogdan Ianosev and Osman
Sahin investigate why electorates are
turning to populists and ask whether
cognitive and evolutionary anthropology
can explain the success of authoritarian
politicians.
The rise of parties outside the political
mainstream has been a defining story of
European politics over the past decade, too.
But why have challenger parties such as
Ukip and Alternative for Germany proved
so successful? And will their appeal survive
the pandemic? Catherine De Vries and Sara
Hobolt examine the evidence.
The UK is often depicted as being in the
midst of a US-style ‘culture war’ between
liberals and conservatives. But is this
really the case? Bobby Duffy reviews the
evidence and finds plenty of consensus in
Britain – but also sees signs that deeper
polarisation could be coming to these
shores soon.
At times, COVID-19 has played into
culture war debates, even sparking
conspiracy theories about the pandemic.
But how has COVID-19 changed British
domestic and foreign policy? Ben Williams
argues that the crisis could shift the entire
international political order.
Arianna Giovannini argues that
COVID-19 has exposed the discrepancies
in English local government and revealed
Westminster’s top-down approach to
devolution in England. As the UK heads
for the door marked ‘Brexit’, Richard Rose
examines the likelihood of Britain re-joining
the European Union in the future.
In the regular In Focus slot, Benjamin
D. Hennig and Dimitris Ballas map global
migration flows – and find that geography
is often the strongest determinant of where
people move to.
Reflecting on her recent experience
working as a Special Advisor to the
House of Lords Select Committee on
Democracy and Digital Technology, Kate
Dommett reports on the challenges facing
researchers who study the internet and
social media.
Already, it is clear that 2020 will reshape
politics for years to come.
Political Insight
will be here analysing and understanding
these shifts and changes. If you would like
to join the debates or contribute get in
touch or visit www.psa.ac.uk/insight-plus.
Peter Geoghegan
Editor
Political Insight September 2020 BU.indd 3Political Insight September 2020 BU.indd 304/08/2020 13:2804/08/2020 13:28
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