The Ukraine invasion: Hierarchy, discipline and counterbalance
| Published date | 01 February 2025 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/13691481241287179 |
| Author | Hüsna Taş Yetim |
| Date | 01 February 2025 |
https://doi.org/10.1177/13691481241287179
The British Journal of Politics and
International Relations
2025, Vol. 27(1) 292 –309
© The Author(s) 2024
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DOI: 10.1177/13691481241287179
journals.sagepub.com/home/bpi
The Ukraine invasion:
Hierarchy, discipline and
counterbalance
Hüsna Taş Yetim
Abstract
This article examines Russia’s 2022 military intervention in Ukraine through an eclectic
theoretical framework that synthesises hierarchy theory, foreign-imposed regime change, and
negative balancing strategy. We argue that Russia justified the attack as a means to protect
its hierarchical objectives in the post-Soviet region against three perceived imminent threats:
Ukraine’s independent trajectory, the growing alignment of certain post-Soviet states with the
US-led hierarchy, and the expansion of the US-led Western hierarchy into the post-Soviet space.
In response, Russia employed the hard face of its negative balancing strategy by launching an overt
foreign-imposed regime change operation to replace Zelensky’s government with a pro-Moscow
regime. From the outset, this operation has been tasked with two key aims: discipline and balance.
The disciplinary objective has focused on ensuring Ukraine’s loyalty to Moscow and deterring
other Western-leaning post-Soviet states from emulating Ukraine by sending a clear disciplinary
message. The balance objective has sought to counter the negative and outbidding strategies of
the US-led hierarchy, which Russia perceives as a neo-containment agenda aimed at undermining
its regional influence.
Keywords
discipline, foreign-imposed regime change, hierarchy, invasion of Ukraine, rivalry, Russia
Introduction
Since 24 February 2022, scholars have proposed various explanations for Russia’s large-
scale military operation in Ukraine. These range from Russia’s historical strategic culture
(Götz and Staun, 2022), the legacy of the tsarist or Soviet empire (Mankoff, 2022; Rojek,
2022; Timothy, 2022), concerns about the spread of democracy (Cohen, 2022; McFaul,
2023; Person and McFaul, 2022), shifts in the global balance of power (Walt, 2022), the
expansion of Western influence into the post-Soviet sphere (Mearsheimer, 2022;
Tsygankov, 2022), the security dilemma (D’Anieri, 2023), domestic dynamics within
Russia and President Putin’s worldview (Cohen, 2022; Daalder, 2022; Torbakov, 2022).
While these analyses have provided valuable insights, their focus on specific actors and
Ankara Medipol University, Ankara, Turkey
Corresponding author:
Hüsna Taş Yetim, Ankara Medipol University, Ankara 06000, Turkey.
Email: husna.tas@gmail.com
1287179BPI0010.1177/13691481241287179The British Journal of Politics and International RelationsTaş Yetim
research-article2024
Original Article
Taş Yetim 293
factors has resulted in incomplete explanations. A recent influential study by Götz and
Ekman (2024) seeks to fill this gap using an eclectic perspective that integrates Putin’s
worldview, regime security considerations, and geopolitical factors.
This study uses an integrated theoretical framework that synthesises insights from
international relations (IR) theories of hierarchy (Butt, 2013; Kang, 2010; Lake, 2009,
2013; Renshon, 2016), foreign-imposed regime change (FIRC) (Downes, 2009; Downes
and O’Rourke, 2016; O’Rourke, 2013, 2018; Villa et al., 2022), and negative balancing
strategy (He, 2012) to enhance further the eclectic approach to Russia’s attack in Ukraine.
Due to the extensive censorship within the Russian media and political sphere, accessing
internal policy documents related to the ongoing war is challenging. Therefore, our study
relies on a diverse range of sources including reports, news, discourse analysis of Russian
officials, publicly available documents, studies, analyses, and reports to support the the-
ory. Using this approach, we argue that Russia justified the attack as a means of protecting
its regional influence from three perceived critical threats: Ukraine’s sovereign trajectory,
the increasing alignment of certain post-Soviet states with the US-led hierarchy, and the
expansion of the US-led Western hierarchy into the post-Soviet space. Although these
factors have a long history, Russia’s threat perception has increased significantly in recent
decades. In response, Russia implemented its negative balancing strategy’s hard face by
launching an open FIRC operation to replace Zelensky’s government with pro-Ruusian
one. From the outset, this operation prioritised discipline and balance.
The disciplinary side of the Ukraine war has had two aims. The first has been to keep
Ukraine under Russian regional authority and away from the US-led Western hierarchy.
For decades, Russia has sought to exert authority over Ukraine through diplomatic, intel-
ligence, commercial, and energy financial means. However, unlike other post-Soviet
states such as Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan that accepted
Russian influence through bilateral agreements or membership in the Collective Security
Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), Ukraine has con-
sistently resisted doing so for years (Mankoff, 2014: 67, 2022). Particularly, Zelenskyy’s
government’s staunch Western-oriented foreign policy has increased tensions with Russia.
This policy made Ukraine a challenging potential subordinate target, ultimately leading
to the military attack (Ekman, 2023; Götz and Ekman, 2024: 199).
The second objective has been to deter post-Soviet states, especially those seeking or
on the verge of joining the US-led Western hierarchy, such as Moldova and Georgia.
Russia sees the pro-Western policies of these states as undermining its regional hierarchy
for two reasons. First, Moscow believes that if one state fully integrates with the West, it
could inspire other subordinate states. Second, once these states enter the US-led security
hierarchy, they will host military assets of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO),
leading to Russia’s encirclement by the US-led Western hierarchy. Therefore, as some
scholars argue (Götz, 2022a: 1541; Ohle et al., 2022: 382), Moscow is determined to
prevent its neighbours from aligning with others, even by coercion. Against this back-
drop, the operation in Ukraine has served as a stark reminder of Russia’s readiness to use
force to discipline non-compliant states and instal leaders who rely on Russian support for
regime security (Flockhart and Korosteleva, 2022: 475).
The war in Ukraine should also be understood as a response to the negative balancing
and outbidding strategies of the US-led Western hierarchy. Despite Russia’s long-stand-
ing objections to the eastward expansion, the US and its allies have continued to expand
using these strategies through the promotion of democracy and the expansion of NATO
and the EU. However, Russia views these efforts as part of a neo-containment agenda
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