The U‐shape of happiness in Scotland
| Published date | 01 September 2021 |
| Author | David N. F. Bell,David G. Blanchflower |
| Date | 01 September 2021 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12283 |
Scott J Polit Econ . 2021;68:407–433. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/sjpe
|
407
© 2021 Scottish Ec onomic Society
1 | INTRODUCTION
This paper look s at well- being in Scotlan d and builds on our earlier p aper on Scotland (Bell & B lanchflower, 2007).
We use micro data from the Scottish Health Survey and the UK Annual Population Survey. We compare with
equivalent evi dence from England. We fi nd evidence of a midlife na dir or zenith in Scotland i n well- being at aroun d
Accepted: 15 Dec ember 2020
DOI: 10 .1111/sjpe.1 2283
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
The U- shape of happiness in Scotland
David N. F. Bell1| David G. Blanchflower2,3,4
1Division of Economics, Management
School, Uni versity of Stirlin g, IZA and CPC,
Stirling, UK
2Bruce V. Rauner Pro fessor of Economics ,
Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
3Adam Smith Bus iness School, Uni versity of
Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
4NBER, Camb ridge, NH, USA
Correspondence
David Blanchf lower, Bruce V. Rauner
Professor of Econ omics, Depar tment of
Economics, Dartmouth College, Hanover
NH 03755; Adam Smith Bu siness School,
Universit y of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK; and
NBER, Cambridge, MA.
Email: Blanchflower@dartmouth.edu
Abstract
We examine well- being in Scotland using micro data from
the Scottish Health Survey and the UK Annual Population
Surveys. We find evidence of a midlife nadir or zenith in
Scotland in well- being at around age 50 using a variety of
measures of both happiness and unhappiness. We confirm
that higher consumption of fruit and vegetables is associ-
ated with higher levels of happiness in Scotland. We com-
pare this with eviden ce for England from the Health Survey
of England. The decline in well- being between youth and
midlife is comparable in size to the loss of a spouse or of a
job and around half of the f all in well- being in the COVID- 19
lockdown. We also find a midlif e peak in suicides in Scotland.
Despite higher mortality and suicide rates in Scotland than
in England, paradox ically we find that the Scots are happie r
than the English. Northern Ireland is the happiest of the
four home countries. We also find evidence of U- shapes
in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in the mid to late
forties.
KEYWORDS
happiness, U- shape, well- being
This is an open ac cess article und er the terms of the Crea tive Commons Attr ibution License, w hich permits use , distribution an d
reproduct ion in any medium, pro vided the origina l work is properly cit ed.
©2021 The Author s. Scottish Jour nal of Political Econ omy published by John W iley & Sons Ltd on behal f of Scottish Economi c
Society.
408
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BELL and BLanCHFLOWER
age 50 using a variet y of measures of both happine ss and unhappiness. The d ecline in well- being betwee n youth
and midlife is comp arable in size to the loss of a spous e or of a job and around half of the fa ll in well- being during
the COVID- 19 lockdown. We also find a m idlife peak in suicides in Scot land.
We find that those li ving in Scotland are happie r than those living in Engla nd but paradoxically t he Scots have
higher mort ality and suicide rates. Evid ence of U- shapes in happiness and hu mp or hill shapes in unhappine ss in
Scotland is consis tent with evidence from around th e world and inconsistent with, cla ims made by a number of
psychologist s who suggest there is no s uch relationship. It holds fo r the UK whether socio- economic controls are
included or not . There is a happiness cur ve in Scotland.
2 | LITERATURE ON A U- SHAPE IN AGE I N WELL- BEING
Several econom ic studies have recently foun d evidence of a significant and e mpirically large downtur n in human
well- being during the midlife years— so- called “happiness curves” (Rauch, 2018). Early work was based on life
satisfaction and happiness data (Blanchflower & Oswald, 2008); the research now extends to trends in un-
happiness, stress, lack of sleep, depression, and even suicide (Daly et al., 2011) and across multiple data sets
(Blanchflower, 2020a, 2020c). Blanchflower and Oswald (2020) show a dramatic rise in extreme misery among
prime age less educated whites in the United States. There is within- person evidence of a U- shape from longi-
tudinal surveys which focuses on changes in life satisfaction as a linear function of individual age (Cheng et al.,
2017). Controlling fo r cohort effect s has little or no impa ct on the U- shape (C lark, 2019 and Blanchflowe r, 2020b).
There is a hill- shape in anti- depressant use which maximizes in the mid- 40s in European countries (Blanchflower
& Oswald, 2016). There are U- shapes in sleep duration (Blanchflower & Bryson, 2020). The U- shape patter n in
midlife even exte nds beyond humans to apes ( Weiss et al., 2012).
Most recently, the in creases in the U.S. death s of despair due to drugs, alcoh ol, and suicide occur preci sely in
the middle- aged, 35– 64 years (Case & Deaton, 2 015, 2020). The trends in the se deaths have a robust associ ation
with the same ill- being markers— unhappiness and stress— that increase in midlife and are responsible for driving
up the overall mor tality rate (Gr aham & Pinto, 2019). A recent analysis by th e OECD in How's Life? 2020, Measuring
Well- Being, OECD, 2020, p. 106, shows that deaths of despair, by suicide, alcohol abuse, or drug overdoses are
higher in 10 OECD countries— Slovenia; Lithuania; Latvia; Korea; Denmark; Belgium; Hungar y; Austria; Finland;
and Poland— than th ey are in the United States.
Blanchflower an d Oswald (2008), showed that a U- sh ape in age existed in well- being data acr oss a number of
countries. Usin g data on 500,00 0 randomly sampled A mericans and West Europe ans, the paper found tha t holding
other factor s constant, a typical in dividual's happiness reach es its minimum on both sides of the At lantic for both
males and femal es in middle age. The minimum in age was br oadly similar between adva nced, East European and
developing natio ns. The functio n minimized on average in mid life. For example, in Eu rope for both men and wom en it
minimized at aroun d 47 with controls including e ducation, marita l, and labour force sta tus. For developing count ries
from the WVS , sweeps 1– 4, minima were 43 for men a nd 44 for women. A maxim um in age in unhappiness dat a for
Europe was found at a round age 47. Some a pparent exceptions, parti cularly in 20 developing nation s along with a
few Western countr ies, mostly where the re are small numbers of obs ervations, to the U- shape were noted.
Subsequentl y, Glenn (2 009) argued that it was inappro priate to include controls and wha t mattered was the
raw data; Blanchf lower and Oswald (20 09) disagreed. Glenn c laimed that: “the ap pearance of this U- shaped curve
of well- being is the result of the use of inappropr iate and questionable control v ariables” and especially marital
status. It is wor th rehearsing the argu ments we used there again . In many countries around the wo rld, and espe-
cially in Europe, a s I illustrate in detail b elow, the U- shape can be fo und without any control va riables, and a major
problem with G lenn's analysis was that he focu sed too heavily on the United St ates.
Second, Blan chflower and Oswald (200 9) disagreed with Glenn's met hodological position , which seems to be
that social scientists should not hold constant other factors when they study the relationship between well- being
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