The willingness to emigrate in six MENA countries: The role of post‐revolutionary stress
| Published date | 01 August 2023 |
| Author | Ali Fakih,Malak El Baba |
| Date | 01 August 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/imig.13093 |
Department of Economics, Lebanese
American University, Beirut, Lebanon
Correspondence
Ali Fakih, Department of Economics, Lebanese
American University, P.O. Box: 13-5053,
Beirut, Lebanon.
Email: afakih@lau.edu.lb
Abstract
This paper studies the determinants of emigration from six
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in light of the
Arab Spring of 2011. The aim is to determine if the econom-
ically unfortunate events which occurred as a result of the
Arab Spring, resulted in a brain drain for many countries. The
paper's analysis is conducted using the Arab Transformation
Project dataset of the year 2014 by employing an ordered
probit model. The paper's main conclusion is that sentiments
of unhappiness appear to be the primary determinant of the
willingness to emigrate. Other post-revolutionary feelings
include lack of trust and political and democratic discontent,
which highly encourage the willingness to emigrate. In addi-
tion, socio-economic factors, such as being young, male, and
highly educated, contribute to the willingness to emigrate.
However, married individuals are less likely to consider
emigration.
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
The willingness to emigrate in six MENA
countries: The role of post-revolutionary stress
Ali Fakih | Malak El Baba
DOI: 10.1111/imig.13093
Received: 8 September 2021 Revised: 21 October 2022 Accepted: 7 November 2022
INTRODUCTION
Emigration is an international phenomenon; in 2019, emigrants stood at around 271 million individuals, constitut-
ing 3.5% of the global population. However, seen from a regional perspective, trends and numbers vary from one
region to another. More migration flows than others characterize particular regions. For example, India, Mexico, and
China top the list for the number of emigrant outflows. However, one interesting observation arises when examining
the top 20 countries of origin for immigrants worldwide. Three of them are countries from the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA) region. 1 Formally, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) defines emigration as “the act of
moving from one's country of nationality or usual residence to another country”. Emigration is, therefore, the reloca-
tion of individuals to a destination country.
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© 2022 International Organization for Migration.
Int Migr. 2023;61:201–220. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/imig
Emigration from the MENA region is classified into three main patterns: the first is forced migration and internal
displacement, resulting mainly from the wars which erupted in light of the revolutions in Syria and Libya, for instance.
The second pattern is irregular, mixed migration, which is motivated by economic and political factors, and labor
migration, caused by the willingness of emigrants to have better work opportunities. Labor migration takes the form
of both regular and irregular emigration. 2
Several Arab states are known to be above-average sender countries; the ratio of first-generation emigrants
to the total population of these countries exceeds the world average (Fargues & Fandrich, 2012). In 2015, interna-
tional migrants in the MENA region stood at 34.5 million, which is a 150% increase compared to 1990. In addition,
emigrants from the MENA region constitute 10% of the global migrant stock. 3
In 2011, a phenomenal episode of protests and demonstrations in several Arab countries marked the start of
the Arab Spring uprisings. These revolutions, which resulted in the overthrow of several governments, presidents,
and regimes, revealed citizens' will to change how their countries were governed. The protests carried out were an
impetus for determining the corresponding countries' political, social, and economic future (Ismael & Ismael, 2013;
Jones, 2012). Times characterized by risks and uncertainties accompanied the Arab Spring; while the masses took to
the streets to voice their demands and impose the change they sought, there was no assurance that their demands
would be fulfilled. Greenberg (2014) asserts that democracy is never a guaranteed outcome of revolutions and social
movements. These uncertainty levels experienced by citizens directly impact the decision-making process; expecta-
tions about the future affect the decisions taken by citizens, especially among youth (Liu et al., 2019).
Of the various decisions that may be affected by the political upheavals and the nationwide demonstrations is
the decision to emigrate. In this paper, we explore the determinants of emigration from the MENA region following
the Arab Spring, using the Arab Transformation Project dataset of 2014. While examining the factors affecting the
willingness to emigrate among the MENA region citizens, we pay close attention to the factors constituting the
mental health aftermath and attitudes individuals exhibit after collective actions and social movements end.
While most studies focus on the causes and main drivers of revolutions, one of which is the Arab Spring, this
paper adds to the existing studies by examining the effects of revolutions on populations. In particular, the contribu-
tion of this paper is that it examines how the willingness to emigrate is affected by the aftermath of the Arab Spring
uprisings that individuals either took part in or were subject to its consequences. Thus, we attempt to capture the
impact of both behavioural and psychological effects of the Arab Spring on the willingness to emigrate.
The paper is structured as follows. Section 2 briefly summarizes the existing literature both theoretically and
empirically. Section 3 presents the research methodology by introducing the data and the empirical model. Empirical
results are displayed and discussed in Section 4. Finally, Section 5 provides concluding remarks.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Conceptual background
The Arab spring and its aftermath
The Arab Spring of 2011 is a significant example of social movements and collective actions. Protests, riots, and
national uprisings erupted in several Arab countries, all carrying similar demands: changing the regime. Citizens from
all backgrounds, beliefs, ideologies, and schools of thought participated in and mobilized these nationwide move-
ments. Each had its own vision and expectation of how the political system should look after the end of the move-
ment. As such, many citizens were satisfied by the outcomes of the Arab Spring, whereas many believed that the
situation was worse than it was before. In certain countries, the Arab Spring succeeded in toppling and replacing
many existing regimes, while in others, it escalated into civil wars.
These major transformations have left their toll on various social, economic, and political aspects in the countries
in which they occurred and have also left population-level impacts. Liu et al. (2019) empirically analyse the effects
FAKIH And EL BABA
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