Threats and forced displacement in Colombia: an analysis based on municipal data
| Date | 14 October 2024 |
| Pages | 427-438 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/JACPR-03-2024-0884 |
| Published date | 14 October 2024 |
| Subject Matter | Health & social care,Criminology & forensic psychology,Aggression,conflict & peace,Sociology,Gender studies,Gender violence,Political sociology,policy & social change,Social conflicts,War/peace |
| Author | Marlyn Vanessa Vargas |
Threats and forced displacement in
Colombia: an analysis based on
municipal data
Marlyn Vanessa Vargas
Abstract
Purpose –This paper aims to examinethe role of threats in the forced displacementof populations from
their municipalities of originin Colombia that is among the nations with the highest number of internally
displacedpeople in the world with 6.7 million victims.
Design/methodology/approach –The data cover the period 2011–2017 and were obtained from the
Unit for Attention and IntegralReparation to Victims. Using general panel data modelsand a difference-
in-differences identification strategy, this paperfinds that threats within the context of the armed conflict
show a positiveand significant contribution to forceddisplacement in municipalities.
Findings –Direct intimidations by illegal armed groups to the population seem to have an influence on the
decision of the threatened person to leave the territory in general, although it is not a proportional reaction due to
the fact that some victims of intimidations decide not to move to keep their assets and maintain territorial ties.
Research limitations/implications –The study highlights that the implementation of the Peace
Agreements signedin 2016 and the negotiation with illegal armed groups is an effort that the Colombian
State muststrengthen to prevent the occurrence of threats.
Originality/value –This paper’s contribution to the literature is twofold: the paper reveals that rising
threats encourage forced displacement in Colombia, by embracing a municipality panel data
perspective and a difference-in-differences design that were not applied in previous studies; and the
results offer suggestiveevidence of the importance of decreasing threatsfor positive peace outcomes,
especiallyin the most affected territories.
Keywords Colombia, Threats, Panel data, Difference-in-differences, Armed conflict,
Forced displacement
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
Forced displacement violates human rights in that it reflects the process by which
individuals or population groups are compelled to move from their homes to avoid a
situation of violence (Counter, 2022;Bernal, 2012). In Colombia, this phenomenon is mostly
the result of the internal armed conflict. Illegal groups use various strategies such as
threats, economic blockades and armed attacks to force citizens, especially in rural areas,
to migrate forcibly.
Rural areas serve as the primary stage for armed confrontations, where vario us mechanisms
are implemented to trigger the mass exodus of entire families. According to Ib
an
˜ez (2008),
among the most widespread victimising events are the restriction of food trade, clashes with
their intimidating effects on the population, and occurrences of ki llings, massacres,
kidnappings and death threats, among others. This leads inhabitants to a bandon their
territories to avoid becoming victims of attacks and relocate to oth er municipalities, turning
migration into a traumatic event. The result is, on one hand, the vi olation of the socio-economic
Marlyn Vanessa Vargas is
based at the Department of
Economics, Universidad
Santiago de Cali, Cali,
Colombia.
Received 15 March 2024
Revised 2 July 2024
Accepted 3 July 2024
DOI 10.1108/JACPR-03-2024-0884 VOL. 16 NO. 4 2024, pp. 427-438, ©Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 1759-6599 jJOURNAL OF AGGRESSION, CONFLICT AND PEACERESEARCH jPAGE 427
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