Uncertainty in times of ecological crisis: a Knightian tale of how to face future states of the world
| Published date | 01 December 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/13540661241226473 |
| Author | Sylvain Maechler,Jean-Christophe Graz |
| Date | 01 December 2024 |
E
JR
I
https://doi.org/10.1177/13540661241226473
European Journal of
International Relations
2024, Vol. 30(4) 818 –841
© The Author(s) 2024
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/13540661241226473
journals.sagepub.com/home/ejt
Uncertainty in times of
ecological crisis: a Knightian
tale of how to face future
states of the world
Sylvain Maechler
University of Lausanne, Switzerland
Jean-Christophe Graz
University of Lausanne, Switzerland
Abstract
How do we face uncertainty in times of crisis? Debates in International Relations
often struggle to disentangle the processes involved in turning the uncertainty of
a crisis into decisions and actions. Drawing on the analysis of Frank H. Knight, we
argue that decisions and actions taken by international actors in times of crisis are
underpinned by the way that information is accessed, interpreted, and evaluated
in order to claim reliable knowledge for shaping future states of the world. We
illustrate our argument with the global politics of the ecological crisis and three
contrasting methods used by international actors to convert the time of the crisis
into decisions and actions: United Nations agencies, financial accounting standard-
setters and central banks.
Keywords
Crisis, environment, International Political Economy, International Relations, risk,
uncertainty
Corresponding author:
Sylvain Maechler, University of Lausanne, Rue de la Mouline, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland.
Email: sylvain.maechler@unil.ch
1226473EJT0010.1177/13540661241226473European Journal of International RelationsMaechler and Graz
research-article2024
Original Article
Maechler and Graz 819
We live in a world full of contradiction and paradox, a fact of which perhaps the most
fundamental illustration is this: that the existence of a problem of knowledge depends on the
future being different from the past, while the possibility of the solution of the problem depends
on the future being like the past.
Knight, 1921: 313
Introduction
The war in Ukraine, the resumption of open conflict in the Middle East, a renewed dan-
ger of nuclear escalation, the COVID-19 pandemic, market meltdowns, climate change
and the destruction of ecosystems on a planetary scale, all share common characteristics
despite being distinct phenomena. They describe a situation of crisis in which political
actors face a threatening situation that demands vital decisions and actions, the full con-
sequences of which remain highly uncertain. This is especially true when individual situ-
ations interact in potentially unexpected ways, giving rise to feedback loops and overlaps
– which is now happening to such an extent that the term ‘polycrisis’ has gained currency
to define the world we live in (Tooze, 2022). Shaping international political action in
such conditions raises the question: How do international actors face uncertainty in times
of crisis?
While uncertainty is often recognized as the key challenge in times of crisis (Blyth,
2002; Nelson and Katzenstein, 2014), debates in International Relations and International
Political Economy struggle to disentangle the processes involved in turning the uncer-
tainty of a crisis into decisions and actions. The concept ‘crisis’ comes from the Greek
word Kairos, which means a moment of decision in which it is important that something
be done (Castoriadis, 1986: 7). As Hay points out, drawing on Koselleck’s conceptual
history, situations of crisis are ‘moment[s] of decisive intervention’ (Hay, 1999: 317)
during which actors ‘have to “choose,” to “judge,” to “decide”; as a means of “oneself,”
to “quarrel” [. . . which involves] a verdict or judgment’ (Koselleck, 2006 [1972]: 358–
359). When political action is taken under such circumstances, those responsible claim
some form of knowledge in support of that course of action. In this article, we propose to
disentangle the processes involved in turning the uncertainty of a crisis into decisions
and actions. We argue that the decisive moments of intervention by international actors
in times of crisis depend first on different ways of accessing information, and second, on
the ability to interpret and evaluate this information to we claim reliable knowledge
about uncertain future states of the world.
To sustain this argument, we draw on the analytical framework devised by the econo-
mist Frank H. Knight (1921) in his book Risk, Uncertainty and Profits to distinguish
between risk and uncertainty – the former likely to be measured, the latter remaining
unmeasurable. While Knight’s well-known distinction was devised to understand why an
imperfect knowledge of future changes can form a core explanation of the origins of
profits in a capitalist economy, his analysis can also be applied to many other dimensions
concerned with an anticipation of future states of the world, including in international
relations. According to Knight, examining the meaning of uncertainty in a changing
world requires nothing less than ‘some inquiry into the nature and function of knowledge
Get this document and AI-powered insights with a free trial of vLex and Vincent AI
Get Started for FreeStart Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting
Start Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting
Start Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting
Start Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting
Start Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting