Understanding and governing global systemic crises in the 21st century: A complexity perspective
| Published date | 01 May 2023 |
| Author | Didier Wernli,Lucas Böttcher,Flore Vanackere,Yuliya Kaspiarovich,Maria Masood,Nicolas Levrat |
| Date | 01 May 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13192 |
Global Policy. 2023;14:207–228.
|
207
wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/gpol
1 | GLOBALIZATION AND THE
ARCHITECTURE OF FRAGILITY
Contemporary globalization has fostered human develop-
ment but growing interconnectivity between societies has
increased systemic risks (Goldin & Mariathasan, 20 14;
Goldin & Vogel,2 010). Systemic risks are risks associ-
ated with large- scale failures or changes of a system
(Helbing,2013). Disruptions originating in one country can
quickly spread beyond national borders and affect large
parts of the human population. Addressi ng such threats is
considered a global public go od, i.e., goods with benefits
that extend to all countries (Kaul et al.,1999). In the study
of risks with large- scale impacts, research has often fo-
cused on wars, natural disasters, and existential risks
(Ord, 2020). However, crises affecting human societies
are also related to economic and social issu es, or the co-
occurrence of social and ecological phenomena (Folke
et al.,2021). In the early 21st century, the world has ex-
perienced several systemic events with global repercus-
sions, including jihadist terrorism and the war on terror
(2001), the global financial and economic crisis (2008),
the COVID- 19 pandemic (2020), and the current broader
impact of the Russian aggression against Ukr aine on en-
ergy, food, and security (2022).
These events have provided an empirical basis to study
systemic crises. This article aims at providing a broader
understanding of the nature, causes, mechanisms, and
impact of global systemic crises and their impli cations for
global policymaking and governance. Such understand-
ing is essential for the provision of global public goods to
prevent, react to, and recover from shocks. The article
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Understanding and governing global systemiccrises in the
21st century: A complexity perspective
DidierWernli1,2 | LucasBöttcher3 | FloreVanackere1 | YuliyaKaspiarovich1,4 |
MariaMasood1,5 | NicolasLevrat1
Received: 29 Jun e 2022
|
Revised: 20 Januar y 2023
|
Accepted: 24 Janua ry 2023
DO I: 10 .1111/17 58- 589 9.13 192
This is an open ac cess article under t he terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is properly cited.
© 2023 The Authors . Global Policy published by Durham Universi ty and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
1Geneva Transformative Gover nance
Lab, Global Stu dies Institute, Universi ty of
Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
2Department o f Computer Science,
Faculty of Scie nce, University of Geneva ,
Geneva, Switzerland
3Departement of Computational Science
and Philosophy, Frank furt School of
Finance and Man agement, Frankfurt a m
Main, Germany
4Faculty of Law, Univer sity of Groningen,
Groningen, The Netherlands
5Cour des compte s, State of Geneva,
Geneva, Switzerland
Correspondence
Didier Wernli, Ge neva Transformative
Governance Lab, G lobal Studies Instit ute,
University of G eneva, 1211 Geneva,
Switzerland.
Email: didier.wernli@unige.ch
Funding information
Swiss National Science Foundation,
Grant/Award Numb er: Grant
31CA30_196396
Abstract
The growing interconnections among societies have facilitated the emergence
of systemic crises, i.e., shocks that rapidly spread around the world and cause
major disruptions. Advances in the interdisciplinary field of complexity can help
understand the mechanisms underpinning systemic crises. This article reviews
the most important concepts and findings from the pertinent literature. It dem-
onstrates that an understanding of the nature of disruptions of globally intercon-
nected systems and their implications is critical to prevent, react to, and recover
from systemic crises. The resulting analytical framework is applied to two promi-
nent examples of global systemic crises: the 2008 global financial crisis and the
COVID- 19 pandemic. The article provides evidence that relying on reactive and
recovery capacities to face systemic crises is not sustainable because of the
extraordinary costs they impose on societies. Efforts are needed to develop a
multipronged strategy to strengthen our capacities to face systemic crises and
address fundamental mismatches between the nature of global challenges and
the necessary collective action to address these challenges.
208
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WERNLI et al.
reviews developments in complexity science and related
fields to understand the nature and dynamic s of systemic
crises. Complexity science is not a unified theory but a
collection of concepts, the ories, and methods that are in-
fluencing a range of scholarly disciplines. Many insights
come from the study of physical, biological, and ecologi-
cal systems but complexity science is increasingly used
to improve our understanding of social and intert wined
social- ecological systems (Arthur,2 021; Biggs, De Vos,
et al.,2021; May et al.,2008; Scholl et al.,2021).
The second section of this article covers the vari-
ous determinants of a systemic crisis. The thirdsection
discusses connection s between the study of non- linear
dynamics and the unfolding of crises. The four thsec-
tion focuses on the capacities that underpin a system's
reaction to acrisis. The fifthand sixth sections cover
the associated implications for global policymaking
and governance. Overall, this article demonstrates the
relevance of complexity science to understand import-
ant features of systemic crises. The resulting analytical
framework is applied to the 2008 global financial crisis
and the COVID- 19 pandemic, two of the most prominent
examples of contemporary global systemic crises. This
paper draws our attention to the lack of capacity of cur-
rent global institutions to address systemic risks, em-
phasizing the need for governance systems that match
the key features of contemporary global challenges.
2 | UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMIC
CRISES UNDER A COMPLEXITY LENS
Complex systems are “systems in which the inter-
actions of large numbers of entities may give rise to
qualitatively new kinds of behavior different from
that displayed by small number of them” (Ladyman
& Wiesner,2020). Examples of complex systems in-
clude living organisms, an organization, an ecosystem,
the economy, society as a whole, and the biosphere
(Mitchell, 2009; Ruhl, 1996). Many complex systems
can be described as co- evolving multi- layered net-
works (Artime et al.,2022; Kivelä et al.,20 14; Thurner
et al.,2018). Their overall behaviour crucially depends
on structural details and usually cannot be described
by reductionist approaches (Parisi, 1999). Complex
systems typically exhibit an emergent behaviour where
stability tends to prevail, but they can be disrupted and
their functions impaired. A ‘crisis’ is an acute event that
threatens the stability and persistence of a complex
system.
2.1 | From systemic risks to
systemic crises
The literature on crises has classically focused on
disaster management caused by natural ‘exogenous’
Policy Implications
• Rely ing exclusively on the reactive and recov-
ery capacities of individual countries to face
systemic crises is not sustainable because of
the extraordinary costs they impo se on socie-
ties. Efforts are needed at the local, national,
regional, and international levels to develop a
multipronged strategy to strengthen our ca-
pacities to face systemic crises and address
fundamental mismatches between the nature
of global challenges and the collective action
that human societies can achieve.
• The most effective long- term strategy to pre-
vent systemic crises is to address their root
causes and thereby reduce global vulner-
abilities while accelerating global change
towards the achievement of the sustain-
able development goals. A high- level United
Nations panel supported by a transdiscipli-
nary scientific commission is needed to (i)
evaluate systemic risks and (ii) develop trans-
formative actions aiming at minimizing such
risks. Trade- offs between goals and actions
in different sectors need to be transparently
assessed, communicated, and addressed.
• The second most effective line of defense
against systemic crises is to prepare for a
timely implementation of interventions before
localized events spiral out of control and de-
velop into systemic crises. A United Nations
global action plan for preventing, reacting to,
and recovering from systemic crises is needed
as a common foundation that informs actions
across different sectors of the econ omy. A fir st
step would be the adoption of a resolution at
the United Nations General Assembly in 2023.
• Governments should work together to improve
systemic risks monitoring, timely information
sharing, and the provision of rapid guidance
in case of a developing systemic crisis. As
multiple binding and non- binding international
institutions already exist in several sectors,
reforming existing institutions to make them
both more effective and agile should be pre-
ferred. Proper human and financial resources
are needed to accomplish these objectives.
• More attention s hould be given to the study of
complex systems in education and research
but also in policy circles. All higher educa-
tion institutions worldwide should introduce
teaching modules on global systems science
to improve literacy in resilienceand sustain-
ability. Policymakers and researchers need to
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