Waiting for the Fall? Joe Biden and the 2022 US Midterm Elections
| Author | John E. Owens |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20419058221127469 |
| Published date | 01 September 2022 |
| Date | 01 September 2022 |
26POLITICAL INSIGHT•SEPTEMBER 2022
Joe Biden faces a major challenge in
November’s midterm elections. Not
only are the Democrats behind in the
polls, but history is against the sitting
US president: of the 14 post-World War II
midterms held two years after a president
was rst elected, the president’s party has lost
seats in the House of Representatives on all
but one occasion and on all but ve occasions
in the Senate. In six of these midterms, the
president’s party lost at least 43 House seats
(1946, 1958, 1966, 1974, 1994, and 2010) and
on four occasions lost more than six Senate
seats.
Extrapolating to 2022, Biden should nd
himself with a Republican House in November
Waiting for the Fall?
Joe Biden and the 2022
US Midterm Elections
Ahead of November midterm elections in the US, John E. Owens
examines the political context in Washington and beyond – and
finds few reasons to be cheerful for sitting President Joe Biden.
– possibly one with a large majority. Not only
does the current House Democratic majority
have just four seats, since Democrats only won
the national popular vote by 3 per cent (51-48
per cent) two years ago, all other things being
equal, we should expect House Republicans
to receive 4.4 per cent more votes than they
did in 2020, which should give them a strong
chamber majority.
Given this arithmetic logic, the Republicans’
surprisingly strong vote gains in last
November’s odd-year gubernatorial contests in
New Jersey and Virginia, together with current
© ABACAPRESS / Alamy Stock Photo
Political Insight September 2022 BU.indd 26Political Insight September 2022 BU.indd 2609/08/2022 12:5909/08/2022 12:59
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