What is in a number? Some reflections on disaster displacement modelling
| Published date | 01 August 2023 |
| Author | Halvard Buhaug |
| Date | 01 August 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/imig.13165 |
International Migration. 2023;61:353–357.
|
353
wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/imig
INTRODUCTION
Global displa cement is at an all- time high (UNHCR , 2022a). More than two - thirds of all internal displace ments
are driven by ext reme weather event s, notably f loods and stor ms (IDMC, 2022). Since 201 2, geophysical a nd
weather- related dis asters have been respo nsible for 230 million inte rnal displacements , indicating the sca le of the
phenomenon at hand.
The rise in human d isplacement has m otivated new quant itative analy ses of, inter alia, floo d- induced dis-
placement (e.g. Vest by et al., 2023), conflict- driven mobility (e.g. S chutte et al., 2021) and scenario- based
projections of f uture displacement (e.g. Rigau d et al., 2018). Despite significant methodological progress and
immediate polic y relevance, th is research is not wi thout limitat ions. In this comm entary, I briefl y reflect on
three reasons why macro- level quantitative modelling of displacement remains challenging and why results
from such studi es should be inter preted with ca re. I discuss thes e concerns withi n the scope of disas ter dis-
placement, al though several points raise d below will be relevant for quantit ative research on human mobili ty
more generally.1
Received: 19 May 2023
|
Accepted: 23 May 2023
DOI: 10 .1111/imig .13165
COMMENTARY
What is in a number? Some reflections on disaster
displacement modelling
Halvard Buhaug1,2
1Peace Researc h Institute Oslo (PR IO), Oslo,
Norway
2Norwegian U niversity of Scien ce and
Technology, Trondheim, Norway
Correspondence
Halvard Buha ug, Peace Research I nstitute
Oslo (PRIO), Oslo, Norway.
Email: halvard@prio.org
Funding information
HORIZON EUROPE Eur opean Research
Council, Gr ant/Award Number: 101055133
Abstract
The rise in global disp lacement has inspired a wave of
quantitative compa rative research in rece nt years. While
deeper systematic knowledge on contextual determinants
of disaster- related mo bility and associate d risks is in high
demand, quantitative modelling of human displacement
should be exercised wi th care. In this commentary, I reflec t
on three central cha llenges related to the qua lity of avail-
able displacement statistics. Future scientific progress in
this field would ben efit tremendousl y from harmonizatio n
and validation of displa cement data that separate betwee n
distinct mobility responses.
This is an open ac cess article und er the terms of the Crea tive Commons Attr ibution License, which permits use, distribution and
reproduct ion in any medium, pro vided the origina l work is properly cit ed.
© 2023 The Autho r. International Migration published by John Wiley & Son s Ltd on behalf of Interna tional Organiza tion for
Migration.
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