Why, how and to whom is the European Union signalling in the Indo-Pacific? Understanding the European Union’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific in the epicentre of multipolar competition
| Published date | 01 February 2025 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/13691481241230857 |
| Author | Niels van Willigen,Nicolas Blarel |
| Date | 01 February 2025 |
https://doi.org/10.1177/13691481241230857
The British Journal of Politics and
International Relations
2025, Vol. 27(1) 69 –90
© The Author(s) 2024
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DOI: 10.1177/13691481241230857
journals.sagepub.com/home/bpi
Why, how and to whom is the
European Union signalling in
the Indo-Pacific?
Understanding the European
Union’s strategy in the
Indo-Pacific in the epicentre of
multipolar competition
Niels van Willigen and Nicolas Blarel
Abstract
In September 2021, the European Union officially launched its Indo-Pacific strategy. Its announcement
raised a series of questions over the nature, objectives, and audience of the European Union’s
strategic communication. In addition, there were some doubts over whether the European Union
could credibly and effectively signal as an autonomous actor in a distant geopolitical region. This
article aims to address these questions by building on theoretical insights from the foreign policy
signalling literature. This article offers an analysis of the European Union’s Indo-Pacific strategy
and related documents, as well as its follow-up presence and actions in the region since 2021.
We conclude that the European Union deliberately opted for ambiguous signalling in a context of
heightened audience heterogeneity. Furthermore, the European Union has both used its signalling
strategy to position itself as a credible alternative to the United States and China, but also to
mobilise and coordinate member states’ actions in this pivotal region.
Keywords
EU foreign policy, European Union, Indo-Pacific, multipolarity, signalling, strategic autonomy
Introduction
When launching the ‘EU Joint Communication on the EU Strategy for cooperation in the
Indo-Pacific’ in September 2021, the EU High Representative on EU Foreign Policy
(HR) Josep Borrell stated the following:
Institute of Political Science, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands
Corresponding author:
Niels van Willigen, Institute of Political Science, Leiden University, Wassenaarseweg 52, Postbus 9555, 2300
RB Leiden, The Netherlands.
Email: willigen@fsw.leidenuniv.nl
1230857BPI0010.1177/13691481241230857The British Journal of Politics and International RelationsWilligen and Blarel
research-article2024
Special Issue Article
70The British Journal of Politics and International Relations 27(1)
‘The world’s centre of gravity is moving towards the Indo Pacific, both in geo-economic and
geo-political terms. The futures of the EU and the Indo-Pacific are interlinked. Our engagement
aims at maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific for all, while building strong and lasting
partnerships to cooperate on matters from the green transition, ocean governance or the digital
agenda to security and defence’ (European Commission, 2021).
At the same occasion, the President of the European Commission (EC) Ursula von der
Leyen said: ‘With today’s proposals, and guided by our values, we are offering a strength-
ened partnership to advance trade, investment and connectivity, while addressing com-
mon global challenges and reinforcing the rules-based international order’ (European
Commission, 2021).
Both statements are instances of signalling, a mechanism through which an actor, here
the EU, purposefully and strategically reveals information about intent, resolve, and
capabilities, aiming to influence the decisions of other international actors to improve the
chances that an outcome desired by the EU is reached (Gartzke et al., 2017). Signalling is
a type of foreign policy behaviour which is normally undertaken by states (and by great
powers in particular). As a regional organisation, with both intergovernmental and supra-
national characteristics, the EU is a different kind of foreign policy actor and has gener-
ally been neglected as a case by the existing signalling literature. However, in this article,
we argue that the EU can be a signalling actor as well. Considering the Indo-Pacific
Strategy (hereafter Strategy), as well as related and following statements and declara-
tions, and the concrete actions (and non-actions) resulting from the Strategy as illustrative
evidence, we analyse the EU as a signalling actor in the Indo-Pacific since the launch of
the Strategy in 2021. The first aim of the article is to offer a conceptually informed analy-
sis of EU signalling in the Indo-Pacific, which could have broader implications for signal-
ling theory, notably in the specific and overlooked context of regional organisations
performing as signalling actors.
We also aim to evaluate the Strategy as an attempt to signal the EU’s strategic auton-
omy in the Indo-Pacific. The concept of ‘strategic autonomy’ was introduced in 2013 by
the European Council in an attempt to strengthen the European defence industry (European
Council, 2013). The EU Global Strategy (EUGS) of 2016 used the term to express the
EU’s ambition to further strengthen its security and defence policy (Council of the
European Union, 2016b). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 further accelerated the
EU’s ambitions in this field (Haroche and Brugier, 2023). Although strategic autonomy
was initially framed as an ambition in the realm of security and defence, it also took on a
broader meaning. Strategic autonomy, or ‘European sovereignty’ as it is also called, has
also gradually included other issue areas like climate change, the economy, health, migra-
tion, and technology (Damen, 2022; Puglierin and Zerka, 2022; Tocci, 2021). We there-
fore expect to find instances of signalling on several of these policy fields.
Before we elaborate on the concept of signalling and analyse the EU Indo-Pacific
strategy as signalling behaviour, we highlight some preliminary observations. First, the
EU Indo-Pacific Strategy is not exclusively about signalling. It contains policy recom-
mendations and compromises which resulted from negotiations among various political,
bureaucratic, and societal actors, which were not always explicitly meant as signalling to
audiences in the Indo-Pacific. Signalling is also one instrument of foreign policy making
among others at the EU’s disposal, including common positions, joint actions, sanctions,
and trade agreements. We will explain that these instruments can only be considered sig-
nalling if they are specifically intended as a signal. The next section therefore elaborates
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