Why the UK Might Re-join the EU
| Author | Andrew Glencross |
| DOI | 10.1177/2041905820911748 |
| Published date | 01 March 2020 |
| Date | 01 March 2020 |
36POLITICAL INSIGHT•MARCH 2020
Brexit, as the campaign slogan
promised, is done. The United
Kingdom has left the European
Union. On the back of his
electoral triumph in the 2019 General
Election, Boris Johnson was nally able
to steer his Withdrawal Agreement Act
through Parliament. The rear-guard Remain
campaign, which convulsed British politics
– and especially the Labour Party under the
ambivalent leadership of Jeremy Corbyn – is
no more.
So, what now for pro-EU voices in British
politics? So-called ‘remainers’ spent the three
years following the 2016 EU membership
referendum imagining how the Brexit
referendum could have been conducted
dierently or trying to persuade Parliament
to legislate for a second ‘People’s Vote’ on
the matter. Instead of ghting old battles,
remainers would be wise to take more
seriously the option of re-joining the EU
if they want to ride the pro-European
grassroots movement birthed by Brexit.
The re-join scenario may sound far-
fetched at present, but so was the idea of
leaving the EU prior to 2016. Trade unions,
industry, banking, and key allies all backed
continued membership, while the coalition
government’s Review of the Balance of
Competences (2012-14) found little reason
to query the UK’s treaty commitments.
But although the referendum result was a
surprise, the decision to hold the vote at all
Why the UK Might
Re-join the EU
Despite massive pro-EU marches and parliamentary pressure, the post-
2016 Remain campaign failed completely. But for those who want to see
Britain in the EU all hope might not be lost, writes Andrew Glencross.
came on the back of an identiable process
of policy evolution.
Paradoxically, therefore, it is the process by
which David Cameron’s government came
to hold that fateful referendum that may
provide a template for why and how the UK
might re-join. By retracing the steps that led
to the referendum gamble, it is possible to
understand the process that leads to policy
change of this magnitude.
Before 2016
The prelude to the referendum, from 2004
onwards, was a cycle of what political
scientists would call ‘policy anomalies’
followed by ‘policy experiments’. As Helen
Thompson (2017) has pointed out, the
contingent nature of the 2016 referendum
campaign was preceded by longer structural
trends. The UK’s approach to the EU stumbled
because of unexpected consequences
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