Will the poverty‐related UN Sustainable Development Goals be met? New projections
| Published date | 01 November 2024 |
| Author | Arief Anshory Yusuf,Zuzy Anna,Ahmad Komarulzaman,Andy Sumner |
| Date | 01 November 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13415 |
Global Policy. 202 4;15 :82 3– 83 7.
|
823
wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/gpol
1 | NEW PROJECTIONS
In this paper, we discuss the literature and consider
the historical relationship between income per capita
and a set of poverty- related Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs). We then make projections of the pro-
gress of those SDGs in 2030 based on IMF grow th
forecasts. Our finding is that the global povert y- related
SDGs will not be met by a considerable distanc e. The
implication of this, we argue, is that more emphasis
is needed on both policies to raise gr owth rates (i.e.,
build productive capacities) and distributive policy
measures such as the introduction or expans ion of
income transfers, and ensuring investments in public
goods are sufficient.
The novel contribution of our paper is twofold. First,
to present a new parsimonious methodology for pov-
erty projection in the n ear future (not the medium- or
long- term future), that although not incorporating the
sophistication of structural models, is able to produce
estimates that are comparable and credible. Seco nd, to
make a new set of projections of a wide range of pov-
erty SDGs including mo netary poverty, undernutrition,
child and maternal mortality, and access to clean water,
which have a sufficiently close relations hip with income
per capita to make projections for 2030.
In terms of the policy implications, we argue that
while income per capita and eco nomic growth are un-
deniably influential factors in various development in-
dicators, including poverty re duction, it is important to
acknowledge that they are not the sole determinants
of progress. Moreover, recent crises have led to down-
ward revisions in growth forecasts, diminishing further
the potential of economic growth to large ly drive SDG
progress by itself.
The structure of this paper is as follows. Section 2
surveys the contours of the debate on economic grow th
and poverty. Section 3 discusses our methodology to
investigate the historical relationship of poverty an d
growth and how we use this to then make new pro-
jections of the poverty- related SDGs based on growth
forecasts. Section4 concludes with a discussion of the
implications.
2 | THE DEBATE ON ECONOMIC
GROWTH AND POVERTY
Discussions about the relationship between growth
and monetary and non- monetary poverty have a long
history. Initially, interest emerged in the early 1970s
from scholars that were critical of the then di stribution
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Will the poverty- related UN Sustainable Development
Goals be met? New projections
Arief AnshoryYusuf1 | ZuzyAnna1 | AhmadKomarulzaman1 | AndySumner2
Received: 17 Februar y 2024
|
Revised: 8 July 2024
|
Accepted: 16 July 2024
DO I: 10 .1111/17 58- 589 9.13 415
This is an open ac cess article under t he terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is properly cited.
© 2024 The Author(s). Global Policy published by D urham University and Jo hn Wiley & Sons Ltd.
1SDGs Center, Padjadjara n University,
Bandung, Indonesia
2King's College London, London, UK
Correspondence
Andy Sumner, Department of International
Development, S chool of Global Affair s,
Faculty of Soci al Science and Public
Policy, King's College London, Bush
House North east Wing, 40 Aldwych ,
London WC2B 4BG, U K.
Email: andrew.sumner@kcl.ac.uk
Abstract
In this paper, we discuss the literature and consider the historical relationship
between growth and a set of poverty- related Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs), specifically extreme monetary poverty, undernutrition, stunting, chi ld
mortality, maternal mortality and ac cess to clean water. We then make projec-
tions for 2030. We find that it is very likely that global poverty- related SDGs will
not be met and by a considerable distance. The im plication of this, we argue, is
that more emphasis is needed on both poli cies to raise growth rates (i.e., build
productive capacities) and distributive policy m easures such as the introduction
or expansion of income transfers, and ensuring investments in pub lic goods are
sufficient.
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