2. Information for Forecasting
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/eb054886 |
| Pages | 4-8 |
| Date | 01 May 1986 |
| Published date | 01 May 1986 |
| Author | Ian McCafferty |
| Subject Matter | Library & information science |
2.
Information for Forecasting
by Ian McCafferty
Any manager or entrepreneur who aims to survive for a considerable period needs
information not only
on
what
is
going on now,
and
what happened several months
ago,
but
also what is likely to happen in the future. As none of us has perfect vision in this area, we
are going to rely on a certain amount of intuition — playing hunches — and on the
information that can be gained from forecasting.
It is often said that all forecasts are wrong, and those that are right are flukes. There is a
certain amount of
truth
in
this,
as
forecasts
are
better at giving
a
range of possible outcomes
than exactly the right answer. Their accuracy also depends crucially on what information
you put
in —
Rubbish In, Rubbish Out, RIRO. But some forecasts
are
obviously better than
others, and what
I
would
like
to do
is
to introduce some of the information the CBI produces
to help managers and planners get their forecasts as close to the truth as possible.
Our information is mostly derived from the regular surveys of British industry that we carry
out. They now cover a wide range of subjects, but the most venerable is the Industrial
Trends Survey (ITS) which will celebrate its 28th birthday late this month, and its 100th
issue in April. Therefore, in recognition of the occasion,
I
would like to concentrate on the
ITS,
and perhaps add a few words about the other surveys we run.
How the Survey is Carried Out
The Industrial Trends Survey is carried out by means of postal questionnaires despatched
to senior executives (very often the Chairman or Managing Director) of UK companies.
Participation
is
voluntary but the survey
is
confined to manufacturing industry; participants
do not have to be members of CBI. Absolute confidentiality in individual replies is
guaranteed but firms may reply anonymously if they so wish.
Nearly 2,000 completed questionnaires are returned to CBI in each survey within two-three
weeks of despatch. After the results have been computed the staff assessment of them is
discussed at the CBI Economic Situation Committee and the full analysis of the results is
made available to participants and the media at the end of the survey month.
The survey questions
are
qualitative and only ask for directions of trends rather
than
precise
indications of magnitudes. Replies take the form of ticking alternative boxes marked, for
example, "Up", "Same" and "Down". CBI has found that this type of question has, by
reducing the burden of form-filling on businessmen and yet providing valuable information,
proved popular over the years.
As can be seen from the questionnaire the questions only ask about recent and imminent
movements in firms' orders, output, stocks, exports, employment, prices, costs and so
forth.
Other questions ask about business confidence and investment intentions while
there are several questions probing firms' constraints.
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