Actuarially Based 'On-Line' Risk Assessment In Western Australia
| Date | 01 September 1999 |
| DOI | 10.1177/026455059904600302 |
| Published date | 01 September 1999 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
164
Actuarially
Based
’On-Line’
Risk
Assessment
In
Western
Australia
David
Daley
and
Richard
Lane
trace
the
Western
Australian
journey
towards
what
they
believe
may
represent
the
next
generation
in
risk
assessment
methodology.
They
examine
a
new
actuarial
approach
which,
they
argue,
can
increase
the
predictive
accuracy
of
recidivism
risk
assessment
tools
and
enhance
the
quality
of
offender
supervision.
ost
probation
agencies
face
increasing
work
pressures.
Resources
are
scarce
and
demands
for
performance
accountability
are
rising.
Better
identification
and
selective
targeting
of
high
nsk
offenders
are
therefore
cntical
to
ensure
the
most
cost-effective
allocation
of
resources,
and
the
best
hope
of
a
positive
impact
on
reduced
rates
of
recidivism.
In
the
early
1990s
Western
Australia
faced
rapidly
growing
work
volume
and
public
accountability
demands.
The
available
resources
could
not
sustain
equal
levels
of
attention
to
all
offenders,
but
contemporary
case
assessment
and
classification
systems
were
quite
crude.
In
that
context,
a
review
of
case
management
practices
and
expectations
was
conducted
to
determine
how
supervision
efforts
could
be
directed
to
best
effect.
This
work
was
greatly
influenced
by
the
principle
of
risk
management
(Clear, ~
995).
Clear
distinguished
between
risk
control
those
constraints
placed
on
an
offender
to
ensure
that
s/he
remains
crime
free
while
under
supervision;
and
risk
reduction -
the
effort
to
achieve
a
permanent
reduction
in
the
offender’s
likelihood
of
re-offending.
He
argued
that
correctional
programmes
are
more
effective
when
they
focus
on
high
risk
offenders,
attempting
not
merely
to
control
risk
but
to
reduce
it.
It
is
self-evident
that
the best
possible
outcome
from
the
expenditure
of
time
and
effort
on
an
offender
with
low
probability
of
re-offending,
will
be
a
re-offending
risk
which
remains
low.
On
this
logic,
it
makes
little
sense
to
concentrate
attention
on
low
risk
offenders.
There
is
a
body
of
evidence
indicating
that
the
recidivism
rate
of
low-
risk
offenders
subject
to
intensive
supervision
may
even
be
increased
(see
Lauen,
1997).
This
paper
examines
a
new
actuarial
approach
to
offender
risk
assessment
methodology
being
jointly
developed
by
the
Western
Australian
Ministry
of
Justice
and
the
Crime
Research
Centre
of
the
University
of
Western
Australia.
It
is
acknowledged
that
accurate
risk
assessment
in
itself
does
not
equal
good
case
management.
A
properly
mtegrated
case
management
package
should
balance
the
principles
of
risk
needs
and
responsivity
(Andrews
and
Bonta,
1994).
While
recognising
the
inter-relatedness
of
these
components,
this
paper
concentrates
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