After Brexit: Risks and Opportunities to EU–China Relations
| Published date | 01 June 2017 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12440 |
| Date | 01 June 2017 |
| Author | Jie Yu |
After Brexit: Risks and Opportunities to
EU–China Relations
Jie Yu
LSE IDEAS, London School of Economics and Political Science
Abstract
As a result of Brexit, China faces both enormous economic challenges and political uncertainties in future relations with its lar-
gest trading partner, the EU. But while the UK’s vote to leave creates an unexpected dilemma for the Chinese leadership,
whose EU policy focuses largely on gaining vast market access, it also presents a rare opportunity for China to harness its pol-
icy instruments and diversify its initiatives to pursue its economic goals with European partners. As a pre-condition to achiev-
ing the desired outcome, however, Beijing will need to untangle its foreign policy decision-making processes. Against this
backdrop, the author will illuminate post-Brexit Sino–British relations and reflect on the possible impacts of Brexit upon future
relations between Beijing and Brussels. A second section will analyse the very complex foreign policy making mechanism in
Beijing in terms of its economic policy goals with the EU.
Policy Implications
•In the process of developing their bilateral partnership, neither China nor the UK will use major infrastructure investments
to reconcile the existing political and ideological divisions.
•The EU must enhance its understanding of the aspirations of the Chinese government and the governing capacity of the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in order to develop long-term mutually beneficial trade and investment relations.
•It is crucial, albeit unfeasible, that the EU grant China ‘market economy’status in order to signal political recognition of
the CCP.
•China’s current EU policy is expansive in scope and number of partnerships. As a result, some unexpected players have
become involved in formulating foreign policy, which has produced less desirable outcomes in terms of China’s long-term
economic development goals and objectives.
The debate over Brexit has made history in international
affairs. It is rare for China, Japan and the United States to
agree with one another on issues of international politics.
However, all three countries share the view that the UK’s
future is in the European Union. Notably, President Xi Jin-
ping joined other major world leaders and openly voiced
the preference that the UK remains in the EU. On 24 June
2016, the British vote to leave left the Chinese just as
stunned as the rest of the world.
Brexit poses a dilemma for Beijing and strikes a heavy
blow to the tumbled Chinese economy. This move by its
newly acquired ‘best partner in the West’(BBC 2015b) also
imminently challenges Beijing’s foreign policy capability and
calls into question President Xi’s governing capacity as a
steady leader (Yu, 2016b).
In an era when the Europeans seem incapable of resolv-
ing one severe crisis after another, Beijing will undoubtedly
adjust its bilateral relations with the UK and reassess the
value of its partnerships with other EU member states and
Brussels. With respect to the emerging geo-political strug-
gles in Asia, Europe remains disengaged. Nor has it shown
any interest to get involved in the global power struggles
between Beijing and Washington. Instead, China is seen
almost exclusively in economic terms as an opportunity for
European service-oriented economies and a threat to jobs in
European manufacturing sectors. Thus, China’s recent eco-
nomic turbulences have served as a major source of conflict
between Beijing and Brussels.
Despite the multiple ongoing crises in Europe, China’sEU
policy still focuses on gaining access to the vast markets
there in order to pursue its immediate economic activities.
Beijing also continues to flex its economic muscles and
apply the well-practiced ‘divide and rule’strategy in its deal-
ings with EU member states regardless of their sizes. In par-
ticular, Beijing puts strong emphasis on courting Central and
Eastern European countries with its ‘16+1’cooperation
framework, which has shown significant potential for gener-
ating a strong pro-China lobby within the EU.
However, the European political elites must be aware that
Beijing has devised several tactics to attain its economic
diplomacy goals, which have also become more complex as
a result of China’s ongoing and much-needed efforts to
transform the domestic economy. In particular, the ambi-
tious ‘Belt and Road’initiative
1
under the aegis of President
Xi Jinping is confusing and creates ambiguities rather than
incentives for EU member states to engage in further
Global Policy (2017) 8:Suppl.4 doi: 10.1111/1758-5899.12440 ©2017 University of Durham and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Global Policy Volume 8 . Supplement 4 . June 2017 109
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