AI’s path to the present and the painful transitions along the way
| Date | 13 May 2019 |
| Pages | 305-321 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/DPRG-09-2018-0051 |
| Published date | 13 May 2019 |
| Author | Martha Garcia-Murillo,Ian MacInnes |
| Subject Matter | Information & knowledge management |
AI’s path to the present and the painful
transitions along the way
Martha Garcia-Murillo and Ian MacInnes
Abstract
Purpose –Artificial intelligence(AI) is likely to have a significant impact on work.It will enhance, but also
displace, some professions. This paper aims to look retrospectively at the impact that previous
revolutionary computing technologies have had and the institutional values that have shaped the way
workerswere affected.
Design/methodology/approach –This historical investigation relies on academic, government and
trade publications of earlier periodsin the development of computer technology. The analysis relies on
the literature on institutional economics to understand societal outcomes. Within this framework, this
paper explores both the ceremonial values associated with tradition and the instrumental values
associatedwith the pursuit of knowledge.
Findings –The AI revolution, like previous technological evolutions, will go through stages. Initial
implementations will suffer from failures that will, however, generate employment; but, as the technology
improves, the AI revolution is likely to enhance productivity but displace workers. Up to this point, the US
Government has not been able to respond adequately to the challenge. This paper attributes this to the
ceremonial values that public officials and society entertain about personal responsibility and small government.
Practical implications –Given the differences in values, this study recommends fending off negative
effectsthough education but also experimentingwith other solutions at the locallevel.
Originality/value –Throughthe lens of history, this study provides a glimpseof what may happen. It also
providesa framework that helps understand the outcomesof earlier technological revolutions.
Keywords Inequality, Artificial intelligence, Computers, Unemployment, Ceremonial values,
Instrumental values
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
In the 1940s and early 1950s, newspapers wrote about humans becoming “moronic button-
pushers, lever-pullers, and dial-watchers,” at the service of an “aristocracy of super-minds”
(Proudfoot and Copeland, 2019); at the other extreme, we have statements that claim that
“AI will give humans a ‘blissful’ and ‘truly meaningful’ future.” Ray Kurzweil, for example,
goes so far as to claim that (around 2,045) humans will become “immortal.” (Proudfoot,
2018). The truth, however, may be somewhere in between.
Our enthusiasm for the benefits that technology brings affects our ability to react to its
potential negative effects. In this paper, we focus on the impact that artificial intelligence
(AI) can have on labor markets during transition periods by looking back at other points in
time, when earlier generations of computers were revolutionizing the economy and
transforming work. The subtle manner in which technological transformations affect work
challenge our ability to react in time to amelioratethe negative effects of change. During the
Industrial Revolution, machines overcame the limitations of the human muscle; today, AI is
overcoming the limitations of human cognition (Berry and Elliott, 2016). The greater
capabilities of AI will continue to penetrate our digital economies and will make it difficult to
stop progress in our path toward greater relianceon technology.
Martha Garcia-Murillo and
Ian MacInnes are both
based at the School of
Information Studies,
Syracuse University,
Syracuse, New York, USA.
Received 1 September 2018
Revised 1 September 2018
Accepted 14 December 2018
DOI 10.1108/DPRG-09-2018-0051 VOL. 21 NO. 3 2019, pp. 305-321, ©Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 2398-5038 jDIGITAL POLICY, REGULATION AND GOVERNANCE jPAGE 305
AI is showing promising results for education in terms of: personalized learning; (Aleven
et al.,2016
;Baker, 2016;Barros and Verdejo, 2016;Tuomi, 2018) infrastructure to optimize
the location of electric car stations;law to determine ownership at a time when work is more
collaborative and sometimes content is computer-generated (Davies, 2011); and even in
areas where we did not think that computers could do well, such as the creative industries
(Birtchnell and Elliott, 2018). The greater capabilities of these systems will continue to
reduce the need for human toil by either enhancing performance or altogether eliminating
the human component. It istherefore not surprising that most people consider technological
advances beneficial. We are optimistic about this progress, as it has resulted in better
working conditions and has eliminated many dangerous and menial jobs. It has shortened
working hours (Greis, 1984), while also expanding the variety and amount of new products
and services. However, AI also poses challenges for labor because the intention of such
efforts is to develop programs that exhibit intelligence “using processes like those used by
humans in the same task” (Simon, 1995 p. 96), and thus we need to determine how to
successfully transition workerswhen they are displaced from their jobs.
Illustrating the negative effects of technological transformation, in a 2015 story in The
Atlantic magazine, Thompson (2015) described how the closing of the Campbell Works mill
in 1977 resulted in the loss of 50,000 jobs and $1.3bn in manufacturing wages. This,
however, was not the worst calamity; the town also experienced increases in depression,
spousal abuse and suicide. According to Thompson (2015), the caseload of the area’s
mental health tripled within a decade.
Both agricultural technology and new opportunities in industry moved people into the
manufacturing sector, and then globalization and automation moved others into the service
sector. Today, 80 percent of the US population works in services (BLS, 2017), and AI has
advanced to a point where it has started to replace jobs in those areas as well (Frey and
Osborne, 2017).
This paper is a historical recollection of the experiences that the US society has had with
technological innovation. In this effort, we take advantage of the literature on institutional
economics to help us understand the way society has transitioned and the forces that have
shaped the outcomes. We also look at the computing literature to track the early history of
technological development. AI today is the result of a long evolutionary path that has
brought with it greater and more powerful capabilities. We are optimistic about the benefits
that AI can bring to the economy and the well-being of labor, but we are also cautiousabout
how society is to make the transition, as we have often not done well with transitions in the
past. Many specific people and regions have suffered, even when in the long term the
society at large benefited.
2. An institutional change framework
The narrative presented here to explain the transition toward an economy that relies more
on AI uses the lens of institutional economics, particularly its contributions that explain
change. The focus of this paper is historical, describing moments in history when
computers and automation changed society toward a more technology-driven economy, as
AI is doing now.
Institutional economics has two main branches that explain change: the ceremonialand the
instrumental. The ceremonial, which is associated with the work of Thorstein Veblen,
Clarence Ayres and J. Fagg Foster (Bush, 1983),is also known as the VAF branch (or VAFB
branch after Bush’s contribution)(Elsner, 2012). The ceremonial values perspective focuses
on the customs and conventions that prevail in a community. It values hierarchies and
makes comparisons regarding people and their worth within the community (Bush, 1983).
Ceremonial values refer to tradition, authority and myths that are beyond the scrutiny of
scientific inquiry (Elsner, 2012).
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