All Eyes On the US
| Published date | 01 December 2020 |
| Date | 01 December 2020 |
| DOI | 10.1177/2041905820978844 |
DECEMBER 2020 • POLITICAL INSIGHT 3
COVID-19 has changed the world.
It has left states powerless and
economies at-lining, as well as
costing millions of lives.
COVID-19 has also claimed its rst
major political scalp: The President of the
United States.
If there was one single factor behind Donald
Trump’s defeat in November, it seems to have
been the pandemic. The Republican’s own
advisors were quick to realise the threat that
the virus posed to his re-election.
Back in February, Brad Parscale rang Trump
from his apartment in Arlington, Virginia.
The key presidential aide had spoken to his
boss earlier, to tell him how good his internal
poll numbers were looking. Less than a year
out from polling day, Trump was leading
prospective Democratic challengers, even in
blue states such as Colorado, New Mexico, and
New Hampshire.
But there was one black spot on the horizon.
A virus, rst discovered in the Chinese city of
Wuhan, quickly spreading around the world.
Trump didn’t want to hear about it. ‘Sir,
regardless, this is coming. It’s the only thing
that could take down your presidency,’ Parscale
told the President.
Parscale’s warning came to pass. Trump
presided over a spectacular mishandling of the
United States’ COVID-19 response that began
with public denials about the severity of the
virus – despite private acknowledgement of
its deadly potential – and culminated in Trump
succumbing to the virus just weeks before the
vote.
Against this backdrop, Joe Biden won more
than 75 million votes and took key swing states,
particularly in the so-called ‘Rustbelt’. After four
years of sound and fury in the White House,
the Democratic challenger’s steadier approach
appeals to many American voters.
In the latest In Focus, Benjamin D. Hennig
charts how the Democrats won the White
House both in the Midwest and in once solid
Republican states. Trump, however, fared better
than many had predicted. The incumbent
President won more votes than any other
GOP candidate before, attracting supporters
in surprising places. Polls suggest some 35 per
cent of American Muslims voted for a man who
banned travellers from Muslim-majority states.
Trump responded to his defeat in
characteristic fashion: he denied the result,
claiming that he had been the victim of fraud,
without providing any evidence.
The irony is that American democracy is
deeply compromised – just not in the way
Trump suggested. Gerrymandering is endemic
in some states: so much so that the 2016 report
by the Electoral Integrity Project at Harvard,
measuring the health of American democracy,
gave North Carolina a seven on a scale of 100, a
rating in line with Iran and Venezuela.
Trump might be defeated, but Trumpism
– and the online disinformation that swirls
around it – is likely to far outlast the bitter
recriminations of Trump’s defeat. The long-
term impact of the ongoing campaign to
delegitimise the election could be severe.
Just 59 per cent of Americans trust their
votes will be accurately cast and counted,
down 11 points from 2018, according to a
Gallup poll. The drop among Republicans is 34
points, to just 44 per cent.
The end of Trump’s presidency will doubtless
have a signicant bearing on politics around
the world. The immediate aftermath of Biden’s
victory was met with celebrations amid hopes
that unilateralism and division could give
way to a more conciliatory form of political
engagement.
A Biden presidency could have signicant
implications for Britain, too. With Prime Minister
Boris Johnson widely seen as being close to the
Trump White House, the Democratic victory
could increase the standing of Labour leader
Keir Starmer.
Starmer is the subject of this issue’s cover
story. Christopher Massey examines the new
Labour Party leader’s rst months in oce
and nds that while the policy platform has
remained similar, the public perceive Starmer
very dierently to his predecessor Jeremy
Corbyn.
Elsewhere, Tim Bale and Alan Wager report
on a recent study, mapping the values of both
Labour and the Conservatives and their voters,
while Jen Gaskell, Gerry Stoker and Will Jennings
report from focus groups in towns and cities
across England, about how voters feel about
Boris Johnson’s promise to ‘get Brexit done’.
COVID-19, of course, has radically reshaped
the political landscape. The pandemic has seen
a surge in support for Scottish independence.
Michael T. Heaney reports on a recent survey of
political demonstrations across Scotland.
Countries led by women appear to have fared
better during the pandemic. Why has female
leadership mattered so much? Vivien Kwan,
Johnson Chun-Sing Cheung and Jenny Wai-Chi
Kong investigate.
Between protests and the pandemic, 2020
has been another chaotic year in Hong Kong.
Ka Po Ng looks back and asks what the future
might hold for ‘Asia’s world city’. Meanwhile,
Sophie E. Hill examines how innovation will
survive in a world of Zoom calls and home
working.
Not everything in the world has changed,
of course. Tarik Basbugoglu, Umut Korkut, and
Tasawar Ashraf report on almost a decade
of civil war in Syria. Bill Jones looks at social
mobility among Britain’s elite and nds few
reasons to be cheerful.
In the winning entry of this year’s PSA student
essay competition, Samuel Lopes argues
that British public life would be improved if
voters had more realistic expectations of their
politicians.
2021 looks set to be another politically
tumultuous year. As we enter a new year, I want
to take the opportunity to thank you all for your
continuing support. If you would like to join the
debates or contribute to Political Insight get in
touch.
Peter Geoghegan
Editor
All Eyes
On the US
Political Insight December 2020 BU.indd 3Political Insight December 2020 BU.indd 3 10/11/2020 15:4610/11/2020 15:46
To continue reading
Request your trial