Ambivalent allies: How inconsistent foreign support dooms new democracies
| Author | Killian Clarke |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221137612 |
| Published date | 01 January 2023 |
| Date | 01 January 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
Ambivalent allies: How inconsistent foreign
support dooms new democracies
Killian Clarke
Edmund A Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract
Since the Cold War ended, foreign support has been identified as an important factor in facilitating democratization.
However, in certain parts of the world Western enthusiasm for democratization has been highly uneven, particularly
when regime change has been achieved through nonviolent revolutionary mobilization. This article introduces the
concept of ‘ambivalent allies’ and argues that ambivalence may be highly detrimental to new democracies emerging
from nonviolent resistance. Ambivalent allies signal public support for a democratic transition while remaining
quietly skeptical about the desirability or viability of the new regime. These misleading signals cause democratic
leaders to deprioritize the maintenance of their diverse coalitions, choosing instead an exclusivist approach that
alienates their domestic partners. They therefore end up doubly exposed to counterrevolutionary threats, lacking
both a broad domestic support base and strong foreign backers. The article illustrates this argument through an
examination of Egypt’s 2011 revolution and 2013 coup, drawing on approximately 100 interviews with Egyptian
political leaders and foreign diplomats. It shows that the USA’s ambivalence toward the transition contributed to the
coup by giving the elected government headed by Mohamed Morsi a false impression that it had strong foreign
backing, and that it could afford to marginalize the secularist wing of the original revolutionary coalition. Egypt’s
experience is then compared to two cases in which new governments survived counterrevolutionary threats: Burkina
Faso in 2014 and Madagascar in 2009. The study contributes to our understanding of how international support
may facilitate or undermine democratic consolidation following nonviolent revolutions.
Keywords
counterrevolution, democratization, Egypt, foreign policy, nonviolent resistance, revolution
Introduction
Though for much of the 20th century the United States
and its Western allies proactively supported dictatorships
globally, after the collapse of the Soviet Union there was
a marked shift in the West’s attitude toward democrati-
zation. With the Soviet threat gone, Western govern-
ments were suddenly free to follow their ideals,
promoting democracy in countries around the world.
Many scholars have argued that this geopolitical shift
contributed to a surge in democratic transitions, which
became known as the ‘Third Wave’ (Huntington, 1991;
Whitehead, 1996; Carothers, 1999; Diamond, 1999;
Levitsky & Way, 2006). Yet, while it is undoubtedly
true that Western support was influential in a number
of Third Wave democratization episodes, this scholar-
ship may have somewhat overstated the extent of this
shift. Subsequent research has pointed out that, in fact,
Western governments’ pro-democratic positions have
been more uneven, and that in certain parts of the world
little has changed since the end of the Cold War.
Building on these critiques, this article develops the
concept of ‘ambivalent allies’, and argues that this foreign
policy stance is highly detrimental to the fates of new
democratic governments – particularly those that emerge
from revolutionary processes. Ambivalence describes a
particularly form of non-support for democracy: an
ambivalent ally is one that, in its official public positions
and statements, expresses support for a new democratic
regime, but that privately harbors misgivings about the
Corresponding author:
Killian.Clarke@georgetown.edu
Journal of Peace Research
2023, Vol. 60(1) 157–171
ªThe Author(s) 2022
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DOI: 10.1177/00223433221137612
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