An aging work force that will not retire
| Pages | 103-106 |
| Date | 30 March 2020 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/SHR-02-2020-0014 |
| Published date | 30 March 2020 |
| Author | Larry Rubin,Gregory M. Sparzo |
| Subject Matter | HR & organizational behaviour,Employee behaviour |
Viewpoint
An aging work force that will not retire
Larry Rubin and Gregory M. Sparzo
If conventional wisdom is to be believed, the baby boomer generation would be retiring
in an orderly fashion at a rate of 4þmillion per year. However, that generation, born
between 1946 and 1964, has rarely, ifever, done anything in an orderly fashion. In fact,
the majority of baby boomers are still in the labor force at the highest annual rate for people
their age in more than half a century.
And general demographic trends and a series of historic economic events have been
combined to redefine retirement for this generation, just as they redefined schooling, work,
marriage and family earlier in their lives. The boomers, nearly 80 million of them, disrupted
the conventional wisdom, in part, because they were so much larger than their parents’
generation –by a lot, nearly double. This forced our society to adapt to them all along the
way and will require us to continue to do so.
From 1920 to 1945, there were about 2.75 million babies born each year, with a bit of a dip
during the deepest part of the Great Depression. A “boom” was quite apparent starting
right after the Second World War when 1946 had 3.6 million babies being born and
continued upward from there, never again dipping below 3 million and peaking in 1957 at
nearly 4.3 million for the generation. Along the way, this huge cohortnot only redefined each
life phase but also were not shy about it. Unlike their parents, whogrew up during the Great
Depression and the uncertainty of the Second World War, boomers mostly grew up in an
era of prosperity, safety and a sense of entitlement to a successful and secure future.
In a recent interview, noted demographer and speaker Ken Gronbach, author of books
such as Age Curve How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm,andUpside:
Profiting from the Profound Demographic Shifts Ahead, told me that “[...] the Boomers will
not retire like the GI Generation or the Silent Generation [...] they will be the youngest ‘old’
people we’ve ever seen. They will continue to throw their weight around and will next
redefine, retirement, healthcare, and finally ‘deathcare’.” He recently told an association of
funeral directors “to prepareto handle 4 million funerals a year into the foreseeable future.”
So, culturally, this large group is disinclined to silently shuffle off the stage. However, there are
other reasons for that as well. As of 2018, nearly 30 per cent of boomers between 65 and 72
years of age are still working or looking for work, nearly 50 per cent more than their parents’
generation at that age. The two key reasons are far better health for a longer period, on the
one hand, and poor planning and what I would call a penchant for hedonism and
consumption, on the other hand. Those born in 1930, for example, had an average li fe
expectancy of 58.1 for male individuals and 61.6 for female individuals. Thirty years later, in
1960, it was 66.6 for male individuals and 73.1 for female individuals, a nd today, men are living
to 76 and 78 years and women into their early 80s. The US Census Bureau s ays that the
population of people over 90 was over 2 million in 2010 and will rise to 7.6 million by 2050.
Gourani (2019),inherForbes article, Leading Multiple Generations in Today’s Workforce,
says that the average US employee is getting older and continues to do so. The average
annual growth rate of the 55þgroup is projected to be three times the rate of the overall
Larry Rubin and
Gregory M. Sparzo are both
based at the Talent
Partners Inc., Simsbury,
Connecticut, USA.
DOI 10.1108/SHR-02-2020-0014 VOL. 19 NO. 3 2020, pp. 103-106, ©Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 1475-4398 jSTRATEGIC HR REVIEW jPAGE 103
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