An Analytical Study of the Balance of Power Theories
| Author | Dina A. Zinnes |
| Published date | 01 September 1967 |
| Date | 01 September 1967 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/002234336700400304 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
AN
ANALYTICAL
STUDY
OF
THE
BALANCE
OF
POWER
THEORIES
By
DINA A.
ZINNES*
Department
of
Government,
Indiana
University
1.
Introduction
Two
very
different
studies
of
recent
origin
suggest
and
make
possible
a
reappraisal
of
one
of
the
oldest
concepts
in
the
literature
of
international
relations:
the
balance
of
power.
On
the
one
hand,
Claude’s
(1962)
excellent
analysis
of
the
various dimensions
along
which
the
balance
of
power
concept
has
been
used
allows
us
to
disregard
those
discussions
that
have
been
principally
polemical,
and
to
concentrate
instead
on
those
which
might
explain
certain
international
phe-
nomena.
On
the
other
hand,
Singer
and
Small
(1967)
have
recently
proposed
what
appears
to
be
a
new
interpretation
of
the
balance
of
power
concept
and,
further,
have
collected
data
and
per-
formed
a
series
of
analyses
that
point
in
the
direction
of
testing
hypotheses
con-
cerning
the functions
of
a
balance
of
power.
These
two
studies
suggest
that
the
time
is
appropriate
to
begin
enuxner-
ating
the
various
balance
of
power
hy-
potheses
and
devote
some
concentrated
attention,
along
the
lines
initiated
by
Singer
and
Small,
to
techniques
and
de-
signs
that
will
test
these
propositions.
These
are
the
joint
purposes
of
the
present
paper.
2.
The
variety
of
uses
of
the
balance
of powder
concept
Claude
indicates
that
there
are
at
least
four
quite
different
ways
one
might
employ
the
concept
’balance
of
power’.
It
has
been
used
in
a
prescriptive
sense
to
indicate
the
type
of
policy
a
state
is
pursuing
or
ought
to
pursue;
as
a
symbol
of
what
is
either
considered
good
or
bad
in
international
relations;
and
as
a
label
describing
a
specific
historical
period,
most
notably
the
18th
and
19th
centuries.
More
recently,
Kaplan’s
(1957)
analysis
has
generalized
the
label
usage
by
pro-
viding
abstract
characteristics
of
what
can
now
be
called
balance
of
power
systems.
These
are
the
three
dimensions
along
which
we
will
not
venture.
If
I
under-
stand
Claude
correctly
it
is
the
fourth
sense
in
which
I
wish
to
explore
the
balance
of
power
concept,
what
Claude
calls
the
usage
of
the
balance
of
power
to
denote
a
situation:
’to
indicate
the
character
of
a
situation
in
which
the
power
relationship
between
states
or
groups
of
states
is
one
of
rough
or
precise
equality ...
Balance
of
power
refers
to
a
situation
in
which
power
is
literally
&dquo;balanced&dquo;
by
equivalent
power’.
(Claude
1960,
pg.
13).
Since
it
refers
to
a
specific
distribution
of
power
Claude
feels
that
this
usage
of
the
term
is
’purely
de-
scriptive’.
For
our
purposes,
however,
the
use
of
the
balance
of
power
to
denote
a
situation
becomes
more
than
just
a
description,
it
is
a
definition
of
the
inde-
pendent
variable
in
hypotheses
about
the
relations
among
nations.
3.
The
dependent
variable :
peace
or
status
quo a
What
then
are
the
balance
ol
power
hypotheses?
Following
the
direction
initi-
ated
by
Haas
(1953)
some
years
ago
and
updating
his
extensive
bibliography
on
the
balance
of
power,
I
have
isolated
what
appear
to
be
seven
reasonably
distinct
hypotheses
which
predict
cer-
tain
international
consequences
(the
de-
271
pendent
variable)
as
a
function
of
the
independent
variable,
a
balance
of
power.
Since
there
is
considerably
greater
agree-
ment
on
the
definition
of
the
dependent
variable
it
provides
an
obvious
point
of
departure.
The
consequences
of
a
balance
of
power
world
appear
to
be
principally
two.
Some
writers,
though
probably
a
minority,
claim
that
a
true
balance
of
power
leads
to
international
peace.
While
it
is
not
the
only
avenue
to
peace,
they
feel
that
it
is
one
workable
solution
to
violent
international
conflict.
The
majority
of
writers,
however,
contend
that
the
maintenance
of
peace
is
a
possible
but
not
necessary
by-product
of
a
balance
of
power.
These
writers
argue
that
the
critical
consequence
of
a
balance
of
power
is
that
it
holds
all
states
in
check;
it
does
not
allow
any
state to
become
overwhelmingly
strong
and
therefore
in
a
position
to
take
over
the
territory
of
an-
other
state.
Consequently,
a
balance
of
power
preserves
the
status
quo
of
the
system
and
guarantees
the
independence
of
every
state,
no
matter
how
small.
This
may or
may
not
involve
war.
Thus
we
have
two
possible
definitions
of
the
dependent
variable:
( 1 )
the
balance
of
power
preserves
peace
and/or
(2)
the
status
quo
of
the
system.
This
discrepancy
between
the
definitions
of
the
dependent
variable
is
troublesome
but
can
be
by-
passed.
We
will
assume
that
there
are
two
sets
of
theories,
one
for
each
defini-
tion
of
the
dependent
variable.
4.
The
independent
variable :
six
definitions
of
a
’balance
o, f power’
The
major
difference
in
the
balance
of
power
theories,
however,
lies
not
in
the
definition
of
the
dependent
variable
but
in
the
definition
of
the
independent
variable,
the
concept
’balance
of
power’.
This
is
the
source
of
the
seven
different
theories -
one
for
each
definition
of
the
balance
of
power.
Six
of
the
seven
defini-
tions
have
been
abstracted
from
the
numerous
balance
of
power
discussions
and
as
such
share
certain
characteristics.
We
will
therefore
present
them
first
and
as
a
unit.
The
seventh
definition,
derived
from
the
recent
Singer-Small
article,
can
then
be
compared
with
the
six
per-
haps
more
traditional
definitions.
Most
discussions
of
the
balance
of
power
do
not
explicitly
enumerate
the
necessary
and
sufficient
conditions
for
the
existence
of
a
balance
of
power
world.
They
provide
instead
a
description
of
the
key
characteristic
of
a
balance
of
power
world,
i.e.
that
characteristic
without
which
a
system
would
not
qualify
as
a
’balance
of
power’.
It
is
therefore
possible
to
construct
all
those
worlds
(i.e.
systems)
which
contain
this
central
or
key
characteristic.
In
this
sense,
then,
the
first
six
definitions
do
not
come
directly
from
the
literature.
Rather,
they
represent
plausible
interpretations
of
balance
of
power
worlds
based
on
the
discussions
concerning
the
essential
ingredient
of
a
balance
of
power
system.
What
is
this
defining
characteristic
of
a
balance
of
power
world
and
to
what
extent
do
writers
agree
on
a
single
charac-
teristic ?
Listed
below,
in
as
nearly
a
parallel
fashion
as
possible,
are
a
series
of
quotes
in
which
this
key
characteristic
is
described.
This
survey
covers
several
hundred
years
of
writings
on
the
balance
of
power
and
should
highlight
any
simi-
larity
of
thought
among
the
writers.
To
provide
parallelism,
each
quote
is
struc-
tured
using
the
following
forxnat :
A
balance
of
power
is
1.
...
an
equal
distribution
of
Power
among
the
Princes
of
Europe
as
makes
it
impractical
for
the
one
to
disturb
the
Repose
of
the
other ...’
(Anony-
mous,
1741 )
2.
’The
doctrine
of
counterpoise
among
nations,
in
order
to
make
the
declara-
tion
of
war,
by
any one,
less
alluring
...’
(Leckie,
1817)
3.
’...
action
by
a
state
to
keep
its
neighbor
from
becoming
too
strong ...
because
the
aggrandizement
of
one
nation
beyond
a
certain
limit
changes
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