An Ever More Violent World?
| Author | Kristian Skrede Gleditsch |
| Published date | 01 May 2019 |
| DOI | 10.1177/1478929919830051 |
| Date | 01 May 2019 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/1478929919830051
Political Studies Review
2019, Vol. 17(2) 99 –114
© The Author(s) 2019
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DOI: 10.1177/1478929919830051
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An Ever More Violent World?
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch1,2
Abstract
A recent report by the United Nations and the World Bank argues that the world has seen “a surge
in violent conflicts in recent years,” with a sharp increase in reported battle-related and terrorist
attacks, and calls for preventive action to ensure that increasing conflict does not undermine the
UN Sustainable Development Goals. I will argue that this is a far too pessimistic assessment of
conflict trends and not borne out of the available evidence, which indicates a decline in violent
conflict since the end of the Cold War. Alarmist warnings may seem helpful to call for action, but
they detract attention from what we can learn about the causes for why conflict has declined.
For example, resort to violence has become less frequent where factors that can motivate resort
to violence such as political and ethnic exclusion have decreased. Moreover, conflict of interest
does not imply violence, and the space for nonviolent alternatives has increased. The future of
conflict and peace depends on our confidence in whether positive changes will continue and our
understanding of the possible challenges.
Keywords
conflict, war, peace, trends, prediction
Accepted: 21 January 2019
Introduction
Since this is my inaugural lecture as the Regius Professor of Political Science, I would
like to start by thanking the University of Essex, for awarding me the title, and Her
Majesty the Queen, for agreeing to set up the position itself, and the recognition that this
entails of my own field. I am of course flattered that I have been found to be suitable to
hold this unique professorship in Political Science. But if I have accomplished anything
as a political scientist, then this is also to a large extent because I have been fortunate to
have excellent collaborators. Isaac Newton is often quoted on his statement that if he had
seen further than others in his work then it was by “standing on the shoulders of giants.”1
I very much agree that research is a cumulative process (see, for example, Holt et al.,
2016; Zinnes, 1976). However, I do not think everything we achieve needs to rest on the
works of giants as such. In my view, an anthill is a much more helpful picture of how we
1Department of Government, University of Essex, Colchester, UK
2Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Oslo, Norway
Corresponding author:
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, University of Essex, Colchester CO4 3SQ, UK.
Email: ksg@essex.ac.uk
830051PSW0010.1177/1478929919830051Political Studies ReviewGleditsch
research-article2019
Article
100 Political Studies Review 17(2)
typically build progress in science. We can achieve much more progress if we like ants
focus on involving larger numbers of people and we all try to work together.
The specific topic that I would like to talk about here is whether we have clear trends
in conflict, and whether we really have a more violent world as many seem to think. In
answering this question, I will draw on a literal anthill of work, with research that I have
conducted myself, often in collaboration with others, as well as many important things
that I have learned from the contributions of other scholars.
An Ever More Violent World?
Many people are definitely convinced that we are living in a very dangerous world with
very serious threats to security. They also argue things are not just very bad at the present,
they are also getting worse over time. The 2015 UK Strategic Defence Review, for exam-
ple, stated that “threats to the UK country are growing” (p. 5).2 To justify this growth in
threats it made references to the rise of the Islamic State, the greater general instability in
the Middle East, and the crisis in Ukraine. At a meeting at the Royal United Services
Institute earlier in 2018, Chief of the General Staff in the UK, General Nick Carter reaf-
firmed the analysis from the Strategic Defence Review.3 But he also warned that “threats
have diversified and become more serious,” and they had done so at a faster pace than
anticipated. On the other side of the Atlantic, former Chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff
General Martin Dempsey has gone one step further, and argued in a statement to the US
congress that we live in a world “more dangerous than it has ever been” (for an extended
discussion, see Preble and Mueller, 2014).
It is worth pausing to digest exactly what this entails. If we take Dempsey’s claim liter-
ally, then it would mean that the world at the present is more dangerous than during the
peak of World War II, the deadliest conflict on record in absolute terms. It would also be
more dangerous than previous periods of even more intense warfare in relative terms, or
share of people affected, such as the Thirty Years War, where some European countries
lost over a quarter of their population (Theibault, 1997).
Some might argue that these statements about how we are currently living in danger-
ous times are based on things that could happen, rather than claims that we necessarily
have a more violent world right now.4 But many similar claims also come up in analyses
that claim to present data and analyses on actual organized violence.
For example, the so-called Global Peace Index by the Institute of Economic and Peace
argues in the 2017 release of their report that violence is increasing, and that by their
measure, only “10 countries … can be considered free from conflict.”5 Moreover, the
United Nations and World Bank (2018) recently published a new report called Pathways
for Peace. The main purpose of the report is to advocate for more efforts to prevent vio-
lent conflict. But in trying to make a case for this they also highlighted how that violence
is becoming more widespread and the world is more dangerous. The executive summary
makes several strong claims, for example, that “In 2016, more countries experienced
violent conflict than at any time in nearly 30 years … battle-related deaths have increased
tenfold … and terrorist attacks and fatalities … rose sharply.” It warns that “If current
trends persist, by 2030 more than half of the world’s poor will be … affected by …
violence.” It also notes that this will make it hard to reach the United Nations sustainable
development targets.
As a conflict researcher, I have spent a great deal of time developing and working with
data on violent conflict. And I simply cannot reconcile these very pessimistic claims
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