Armed conflicts, 1946–2013
| Author | Peter Wallensteen,Lotta Themnér |
| Published date | 01 July 2014 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343314542076 |
| Date | 01 July 2014 |
| Subject Matter | Special Data Feature |
Special Data Features
Armed conflicts, 1946–2013
Lotta Themne
´r & Peter Wallensteen
Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala University
Abstract
In 2013, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 33 armed conflicts with a minimum of 25 battle-
related deaths, up by one from 2012. Seven of these were recorded as wars, that is conflicts leading to 1,000 or more
battle-related deaths in a calendar year. There have been 144 armed conflicts (47 wars) since 1989 and 254 armed
conflicts (114 wars) since 1946. For the past ten years the amount of active armed conflict has fluctuated between 31
and 37. Six peace agreements were signed during the year 2013, two more than in the previous year. For the first
time, this article also provides data on trends in battle-related deaths since 1989. These data do not show a clear
time-trend. However, there is a particular difficulty in mapping the conflict in Syria, for which no credible
battle-related deaths in 2013 can yet be reported.
Keywords
battle-related deaths, conflict, data, peace agreements, war
The year 2013: Number and type of conflicts
In 2013, 33 armed conflicts were active in 25 locations
worldwide.
1
While this is a slight increase from 2012,
when 32 conflicts were recorded, the number remains
at a relatively low level, especially compared to the imme-
diate post-Cold War period. In fact, relative to the peak
year of 1991, which saw 52 active conflicts, the number
is down by as much as almost 37%. Of the reported
33 armed conflicts, seven reached the intensity level of
war – conflicts with at least 1,000 battle-related deaths
in a calendar year –one more than in 2012. The lowest
number of wars since 1989 (four) was recorded in 2007,
suggesting a gradual increase over the past six years.
Compared to the peak year of 1990, however, the num-
bers are down by more than half.
The number of conflictdyads
2
– a measure of fragmen-
tation in an armed conflict – alsoincreased in 2013, going
from 40 to 46. There were two active dyads in six con-
flicts, three active dyads in two conflicts and one conflict
– the one in Mali – saw four rebel groups fighting the
1
An armed conflict is defined as a contested incompatibility that
concerns government or territory or both, where the use of armed
force between two parties results in at least 25 battle-related deaths
in a calendar year. Of these two parties, at least one has to be the
government of a state. For an intrastate conflict, the location is a
country. For an interstate conflict, it is two or more countries.
Several countries (notably India and Myanmar) have several
separate conflicts going on at the same time, fought over different
incompatibilities, which is why the number of conflicts exceeds the
number of locations. For in-depth definitions of key concepts, see
http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/.
2
A dyad is defined as a pair of warring parties. In interstate conflicts,
these warring parties are governments of states, whereas in intrastate
conflicts, one is the government and the other is a rebel group. If
more than one rebel group is active in a conflict, several dyads are
recorded. For more information about the dyadic dimension of
armed conflict, see Harbom, Melander & Wallensteen (2008). The
UCDP Dyadic Datset can be downloaded from http://www.pcr.uu.
se/research/ucdp/datasets/ucdp_dyadic_dataset/.
Corresponding author:
lotta.themner@pcr.uu.se
Journal of Peace Research
2014, Vol. 51(4) 541–554
ªThe Author(s) 2014
Reprints and permission:
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343314542076
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