Assessing the determinants of public confidence in the police: A case study of a post-conflict community in Northern Ireland
| Author | Graham Ellison,Peter Shirlow,Nathan W Pino |
| DOI | 10.1177/1748895812462597 |
| Date | 01 November 2013 |
| Published date | 01 November 2013 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Criminology & Criminal Justice
13(5) 552 –576
© The Author(s) 2012
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DOI: 10.1177/1748895812462597
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Assessing the determinants
of public confidence in the
police: A case study of a
post-conflict community in
Northern Ireland
Graham Ellison
Queen’s University Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK
Nathan W Pino
Texas State University, USA
Peter Shirlow
Queen’s University Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK
Abstract
Drawing upon original survey research this article seeks to identify the generative processes that
influence perceptions of the police in the context of an inner-city neighbourhood in Northern
Ireland that has been affected by increases in crime and disorder in the aftermath of the peace
process. Conceptually we draw upon recent research from England and Wales that outlines
confidence in the police in terms of instrumental and expressive dimensions. We apply this
framework and consider whether it provides a useful template for understanding the post-
conflict dynamics of police–community relations in our study area. Contrary to much received
wisdom our analysis suggests that instrumental concerns about crime and illegal activity are a
more influential predictor of attitudes to the police than expressive concerns with disorder and
anti-social behaviour. Consequently our discussion points to the variance in local and national
survey data and questions the degree to which the latter can usefully inform our understanding of
trends and developments in discrete micro-spaces. Our conclusion outlines the potential policy
implications for state policing practice in deprived urban spaces.
Corresponding author:
Graham Ellison, Institute of Criminology and Criminal Justice, School of Law, Queen’s University Belfast,
Northern Ireland, BT7 1NN, UK.
Email: g.ellison@qub.ac.uk
462597CRJ13510.1177/1748895812462597Criminology & Criminal JusticePino et al.
2012
Article
Ellison et al. 553
Keywords
Crime, disorder, Northern Ireland, peace process, policing
Introduction
Throughout the conflict in Northern Ireland the deeply contested nature of state policing
meant that assessing levels of public satisfaction and confidence in the then Royal Ulster
Constabulary (henceforth RUC) was a complicated and messy affair (Ellison, 2000;
Mulcahy, 2006). The reforms enacted via the report of the Independent Commission on
Policing (henceforth ICP) have gone some considerable way to redressing many of the
problems associated with the RUC. Arguably, however, and in spite of the reform pro-
gramme being lauded on the international stage, the changes have been most visible at
the structural and institutional levels such as establishing the mechanisms for police
oversight, increasing Catholic recruitment and the adoption of a fully independent police
complaints machinery. What continues to be unclear is whether there has been any fun-
damental shift in levels of public confidence in the Police Service of Northern Ireland
(henceforth PSNI); particularly among those groups most alienated from public policing
structures in the past. Official survey data paint a somewhat ambiguous picture: an over-
whelming majority of respondents appear to have confidence in the PSNI’s ability to
treat both communities fairly with one survey putting this at 79 per cent for Catholics and
80 per cent for Protestants (Northern Ireland Policing Board, 2011). However, according
to the same survey when asked to assess the PSNI’s performance at local level consider-
ably fewer respondents (49 per cent of Catholics and 54 per cent of Protestants) have
confidence in the force to tackle issues around neighbourhood crime and disorder
(Northern Ireland Policing Board, 2011).
Even this dual reading of the Policing Board survey data is too simplistic and funda-
mentally, given the rationale for the ICP reforms in the first place, tells us nothing about
the attitudes of historically marginalized and alienated communities in Northern Ireland
to the new policing structures and arrangements. In what follows therefore, we report on
a subset of the data from the second (quantitative) phase of a study conducted within a
post-conflict community in Northern Ireland to assess perceptions of the PSNI. Our
study area is New Lodge: a predominantly Catholic (97.3 per cent) and strongly republi-
can,1 working-class, inner-city enclave of North Belfast that has been deeply affected by
conflict related violence and traditionally experienced a highly militarized form of coun-
ter-terrorist policing by the RUC.
New Lodge has a population of approximately 5000 inhabitants and comprises an
area of around one square kilometre on the northern edge of Belfast’s inner-city bound-
ary. It is one of the poorest and most economically depressed areas in Northern Ireland
ranking third highest out of 582 electoral wards across the full range of indicators of
multiple deprivation with persistent intergenerational unemployment, high levels of
alcohol and drug abuse (prescription and illicit), chronic mental and physical health
issues and low levels of educational attainment among young people (Northern Ireland
Information Service (NINIS), 2010).2 It also ranks 19th highest (again out of 582 elec-
toral wards) for the prevalence of officially recorded crime with the total offences rate
per 10,000 of population (2010/2011), four times the Northern Ireland average (NINIS,
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