Assessing the Evolving Threat of Terrorism
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1758-5899.2011.00142.x |
| Published date | 01 May 2012 |
| Date | 01 May 2012 |
Assessing the Evolving Threat of
Terrorism
Khusrav Gaibulloev
Kazakhstan Institute of Management, Economics and Strategic Research
Todd Sandler and Charlinda Santifort
University of Texas at Dallas
Abstract
The ‘war on terror’ has focused exclusively on transnational terrorism since the hijackings of 9 ⁄11. Based on almost
40 years of data, this article argues that domestic terrorism poses a much greater threat to the world community.
Thus, this focus needs to be reconsidered, especially because recent research shows that domestic terrorism spills over
into transnational terrorism. This article also argues that homeland security and the dominance of religious
fundamentalist terrorists are making the hardest-to-defend targets – private parties – the target of choice since 1999.
Moreover, terrorists are increasingly favoring attacking people over property. Even though terrorism murders relatively
few people, it poses a supreme collective action problem for the world community.
Policy Implications
•The war on terror needs to focus on more than just transnational terrorism, because domestic terrorism poses a
greater threat in terms of lives and property loss than transnational terrorism. This is also true because domestic
terrorism tends to spill over into transnational terrorism as local terrorists seek greater world recognition.
•For transnational terrorism, enhanced defensive counterterrorism precautions and the increasing dominance of
religious fundamentalist terrorists have made the hardest-to-defend targets – private parties – the terrorists’ target
of choice since 1999.
•The changing targeting of transnational and domestic terrorists has made public places – shopping malls, depart-
ment stores, public squares and public transport – likely attack venues. For domestic terrorism, private parties have
been the prime target since 1981. Targeting differences between domestic and transnational terrorism can inform
the allocation of homeland security resources.
•For all target types, there is an increased targeting of people over property, which makes defensive homeland
security measures more challenging. As defensive action becomes more difficult and costly, more resources must
be put into proactive measures that dismantle terrorist groups and their infrastructure.
•For transnational terrorism, the need for proactive measures raises a collective action problem because prime-
target nations are more likely to act, with other nations taking a free ride against a common terrorist threat. With
the spillover of domestic terrorism into transnational terrorism, there is also a collective action problem arising with
respect to the fight against domestic terrorism.
•Policy makers must keep the risks and consequences in mind and not overspend on defensive efforts that attempt
to shift potential terrorist attacks abroad.
Since the four hijackings on 11 September 2001 (hence-
forth 9 ⁄11), the world has spent hundreds of billions of
dollars on counterterrorism measures (Sandler et al.,
2009). For the fiscal year 2011, the US Department of
Homeland Security (DHS) budget is $56 billion, with
about two-thirds earmarked for homeland security
against terrorism (US DHS, 2011). US proactive military
operations in Afghanistan have been more costly than
defensive safeguards at home. There are many other ter-
rorism-related expenditures on military action, defensive
measures, intelligence and police investigations through-
out the world. Does the threat of terrorism warrant ever-
increasing outlays at a time when many industrialized
countries are facing debt crises?
The daring assassination raid by Navy Seals on Osama
bin Laden’s Abbottabad compound in Pakistan on 1 May
Global Policy Volume 3 . Issue 2 . May 2012
Global Policy (2012) 3:2 doi: 10.1111/j.1758-5899.2011.00142.x ª2011 London School of Economics and Political Science and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Research Article
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