AUKUS: When naval procurement sets grand strategy
| Published date | 01 September 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231195269 |
| Author | Jonathan D. Caverley |
| Date | 01 September 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Scholarly Essays |
AUKUS: When naval
procurement sets grand
strategy
Jonathan D. Caverley
*
United States Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island, USA
Abstract
Traditionally, a grand strategy lays out the trade-offs a state must make in pursuit of
security, thereby setting all aspects of foreign policy, from trade deals to defence bud-
gets. This essay argues that the trade-offs embodied in a deal as complex, expensive,
and long-lasting as AUKUS will manifest themselves in Australia’s grand strategy for
decades to come. Going forward, Australia’s naval procurement decisions will
shape its grand strategy, rather than vice versa. The essay makes three related points.
First, Australia’s costly reneging on France in favour of the US is the most important
aspect of the deal to date. Even if these nuclear submarines are never built (a not
entirely remote possibility), this shift in investment will determine Australia’s
approach to the world for a generation. Second, understanding this approach requires
acknowledging that arms deals, even between allies, are tough, zero-sum negotiations
requiring all parties to give up something of value. Given this, the essay makes the final
point that Australia, and any other country entering AUKUS in the future, will pay in
autonomy as much as in dollars.
Keywords
AUKUS, submarines, naval procurement, grand strategy, arms trade
*The views of this paper are the author’s and do not reflect the policies of the United States Naval War
College, Navy, or government.
Corresponding author:
Jonathan D. Caverley, United States Naval WarCollege, 686 Cushing Road, Newport, Rhode Island, 02841-
1207, USA.
Email: jon.caverley@usnwc.edu
Scholarly Essay
International Journal
2023, Vol. 78(3) 327–334
© The Author(s) 2023
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DOI: 10.1177/00207020231195269
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