Better out than in? The effect on recidivism of replacing incarceration with electronic monitoring in Norway
| Published date | 01 January 2022 |
| Date | 01 January 2022 |
| DOI | 10.1177/1477370819887515 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370819887515
European Journal of Criminology
© The Author(s) 2019
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DOI: 10.1177/1477370819887515
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Better out than in? The effect
on recidivism of replacing
incarceration with electronic
monitoring in Norway
Synøve N. Andersen
Statistics Norway and University of Oslo, Norway
Kjetil Telle
National Institute of Public Health and Statistics Norway, Norway
Abstract
Electronic monitoring (EM) has become a common alternative to traditional incarceration over the
past few decades, yet the causal effect of EM on recidivism remains uncertain. This study exploits the
gradual implementation of an EM programme in Norway between 2008 and 2011 in an instrumental
variable design aimed at estimating the effect of EM on the recidivism rate, frequency and severity
measured up to three years after release. Results suggest that EM reduced two-year recidivism rates
by about 15 percent and the one-year recidivism frequency by approximately 0.3 offences on average.
Subsample analyses indicate that the effects on recidivism rates are strongest among offenders
without a prison record or recent unemployment spells and, although between-group differences
are not statistically significant, this suggests that avoiding prison stigma and maintaining workplace
relations can be important mechanisms whereby EM reduces recidivism and promotes desistance.
Keywords
Electronic monitoring, non-custodial sanctions, recidivism, instrumental variables, Norway
Introduction
One of the primary goals of incarceration is to reduce criminal offending by deterring or
rehabilitating offenders. Throughout the Western world, post-release recidivism rates
Corresponding author:
Synøve N. Andersen, Research Department, Statistics Norway, PO Box 2633 St. Hanshaugen, N-0131 Oslo,
Norway.
Email: sna@ssb.no
887515EUC0010.1177/1477370819887515European Journal of CriminologyAndersen and Telle
research-article2019
Article
2022, Vol. 19(1) 55–76
remain high, however, and both in high-incarceration nations (such as the US) and in
low-incarceration nations (such as Norway) about 50–70 percent of those released from
prison are rearrested for a new crime within two to three years of release (see Andersen
and Skardhamar, 2017; Durose et al., 2014; see also Yukhnenko et al., 2019). The effec-
tiveness of prisons has therefore been called into question, whereas the negative conse-
quences of incarceration for individuals are well documented (see, for example, Bayer
et al., 2009; Bhuller et al., 2018; LeBel, 2011).
In light of the high costs and questionable effectiveness of incarceration in reducing
recidivism, many countries have sought out less restrictive forms of punishment and alter-
natives to incarceration. In 2017, the probation population rate was higher than the prison
population rate in 26 out of the 33 countries included in the Council of Europe’s annual
penal statistics (Aebi et al., 2019), and the number of non-custodial sentencing options
across Europe is growing (Aebi and Hashimoto, 2018; Hucklesby et al., 2016). Much of
this growth has been in two primary areas. First, there has been an increase in the use of
early release policies, which enable offenders to serve the final part of the sentence under
a form of community supervision. These so-called ‘back-door’ strategies cut down on the
amount of time spent in prison and may enable a more gradual re-entry that can promote
desistance (see Doleac, 2018, for a review of evidence). Second, there has been a turn
towards sanctions and programmes that divert offenders to community supervision instead
of incarceration. These so-called ‘front-door strategies’ are often targeted at low-risk
offenders who have not yet entered prison. These strategies prevent offenders from enter-
ing prison, enabling correctional agencies to reduce supervision costs and individuals to
avoid some of the potentially negative consequences of spending time in prison.
An important avenue for the downsizing of prison populations through the implemen-
tation of both ‘front-door’ and ‘back-door’ policies has been the use of electronic moni-
toring (EM) technology. EM is a blanket term used to describe a wide range of policies
and programmes that rely on GPS, radio frequency (RF) or other technologies to provide
information on the whereabouts of an offender.1 The practice of electronically monitor-
ing offenders started in the United States in the early 1980s, and, since then, EM has
become an established – although by no means ubiquitous or uncontested – feature of
European crime policy (Nellis, 2014). As of 2010 at least 27 European countries had
legislated the use of EM (Aebi et al., 2012), but the features, target groups and purposes
of EM vary substantially by jurisdiction (see, for example, Aebi and Hashimoto, 2018;
Hucklesby et al., 2016).
The appeal of replacing incarceration with EM is clear: EM is substantially cheaper
than both prison and standard community supervision (see, for example, Bales et al.,
2010; Di Tella and Schargrodsky, 2013; Rasmussen et al., 2016), and serving a sentence
on EM can enable the offender to maintain work commitments, pay taxes and engage in
the community. The potential downsides to EM include an increased potential for inter-
action with victims and a risk of reoffending within the community. Additionally, the
very same factors that make EM appealing – including decreased control – may accord-
ing to deterrence theory reduce specific and/or general deterrence and in turn lead to
more, not less, crime. It should be noted that deterrence theory has received limited
empirical support (Nagin, 2013), but it remains essential to carefully evaluate program-
matic effects as new EM programmes are implemented around the world.
56 European Journal of Criminology 19(1)
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