Blame the victims? Refugees, state capacity, and non-state actor violence
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343318804592 |
| Date | 01 January 2019 |
| Author | Vincenzo Bove,Tobias Böhmelt,Kristian Skrede Gleditsch |
| Published date | 01 January 2019 |
| Subject Matter | Research Articles |
Blame the victims? Refugees, state capacity,
and non-state actor violence
Tobias Bo
¨hmelt
Department of Government, University of Essex
Vincenzo Bove
Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
Department of Government, University of Essex & Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Abstract
Existing research argues that refugee inflows may increase the risk of domestic conflict, particularly civil war that, by
definition, involves the state as an actor. However, many of the postulated mechanisms linking refugees to a higher
risk of such conflict pertain to tensions with locals, which do not necessarily involve any grievances against govern-
ment authorities. We contend that it is more likely to identify an association between refugees and non-state actor
violence, that is, armed violence between organized non-state groups, neither of which pertains to the state. We also
claim that the extent to which refugees are associated with a higher likelihood of non-state conflict depends on the
capacity of governments to manage and mitigate risks. We report evidence that refugee populations can be linked to
an increased risk of non-state conflict, as well as for a mitigating effect of state capacity on the risk of non-state
conflicts in the presence of refugees. We do not find a clear effect of refugee populations on civil war, suggesting that
the link depends on existing conflict cleavages relevant to mobilizing refugees or locals. Our research helps to shed
light on the relevant security consequences of managing refugee populations. Despite the com mon arguments
portraying refugees as security risks in developed countries, the risk of non-state conflict applies primarily to weak
states that have been forced to shoulder a disproportionate burden in hosting refugees.
Keywords
non-state conflict, quantitative analysis, refugees, state capacity
Introduction
A large literature has emerged suggesting that refugees
can be associated with a higher risk of violent civil con-
flict within hosting countries. Most of this research
focuses on conventional civil war or on how refugees are
likely to exacerbate tensions within countries that in turn
are more likely to lead to violent disputes involving the
state. For example, the ‘refugee-warrior thesis’ highlights
how refugees in camps could be mobilized to participate
in violent uprisings against a government, with the 1970
Black September uprising of Palestinian refugees in
Jordan as the canonical example (see Zolberg, Suhrke
& Aguayo, 1989). However, there are also many exam-
ples where refugee flows have not been associated with
violent conflict at all, or where refugees may have been
linked to other forms of violence, distinct from conven-
tional civil war. In particular, numerous events involving
violence are not initiated by refugees, are not directed at
the state, and do not involve the government as an actor
in any meaningful way (see also Gleditsch & Bartusevi-
c
ˇius, forthcoming).
Corresponding author:
tbohmelt@essex.ac.uk
Journal of Peace Research
2019, Vol. 56(1) 73–87
ªThe Author(s) 2018
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343318804592
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