Book Notes
| DOI | 10.1177/002234330604300216 |
| Date | 01 March 2006 |
| Author | Gunhild Hoogensen |
| Published date | 01 March 2006 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
journal of PEACE RESEARCH volume 43 / number 2 / march 2006
232
Heinberg, Richard, 2004. Power Down:
Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World.
Gabriola Island: New Society. xiii + 209 pp. ISBN
0865715106.
Heinberg, Richard, 2003. The Party’s Over:
Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies. Sussex:
Clairview. xiii + 208 pp. ISBN 1902636457.
The subject of these books is the peak oil and gas
thesis – that we shall imminently witness the
world’s maximum production of oil and natural
gas. Heinberg is best in The Party’s Over, where he
provides a historical account of the role of energy
in the development of ever more sophisticated
societies. He presents a wide-ranging survey of
the role of oil in a striking variety of industries.
For example, oil is a component of fertilizers,
plastics and pesticides. Lack of oil would, there-
fore, affect food production and distribution on
a much wider level than just the transport of
products from farms to consumers. In both
books, he presents evidence that the world is
approaching a peak in the production of oil
(expected before 2010) and gas. He states that
discoveries of new reserves have declined
markedly since the 1970s, and OPEC countries
have overestimated the size of their reserves. This,
coupled with ever-increasing demand, leaves us
approaching a global crisis. He concludes by dis-
missing the possibility of the world adopting
alternative energy sources and speculates on the
consequence for this crisis on war and peace.
Power Down presents two options for the world:
‘power down’, an orderly return to pre-industrial
modes of transport and food production; or ‘last
man standing’, a fight to the death by the world’s
military powers for the control of dwindling oil
reserves. The author sees the 2003 invasion of
Iraq as the first move in this endgame. However,
while The Party’s Over, especially, offers a very
interesting read, both books are polemics with
serious flaws. Heinberg fails to convince this
reviewer that the peak in oil production is
imminent, and more importantly, he overstates
the potential for such a decline to result in a cata-
clysmic crisis. On the first point, he compares the
arguments of geologist Colin Campbell, who
argues for the peak oil thesis, with individuals,
such as Bjørn Lomborg (The Skeptical Environ-
mentalist), who argue against it. He then con-
cludes that the peak oil thesis is more correct
because Campbell has better expertise, and the
counter-arguments are weak and vague. This is a
cheap trick. Heinberg’s book would have been
much more valid if he had assessed counter-
arguments by people with considerable experi-
ence of writing on oil exploration – such as
Daniel Yurgin or Peter Odell. Second, like the
Marxists who blithely predicted the inevitable
collapse of capitalism, Heinberg fails to assess the
potential for human dynamism to find solutions.
Certainly, he is right to disparage current
attempts to find alternative sources of energy and
voluntarily reduce oil consumption. However, we
can assume that, if the oil price were to double or
treble from its current price, people would be
much more adept at dramatically reducing their
currently profligate oil consumption. Similarly,
investment in alternative energy sources would
become much more attractive. The world after
peak oil (whenever it occurs) might be much
different and less profligate than it is now, but
Heinberg fails to persuade that it would be suc-
ceeded by a global crisis. This reviewer would very
much like to read a disinterested assessment of the
state of the world’s oil reserves, and a similarly fair
evaluation of the political and economic conse-
quences of the peak in production (which will
surely happen at some point). Unfortunately,
Heinberg hasn’t written it.
Nicholas Marsh
Kanet, Roger E., ed., 2005. The New Security
Environment: The Impact on Russia, Central and
Eastern Europe. Aldershot: Ashgate. 247 pp. ISBN
0754643301.
There has been a great deal written on how
security priorities have altered since the end of the
Cold War, and then again after the attacks on the
United States on 11 September 2001. Such
analyses depend very much on the position from
which one writes. In this case, despite the new
security environment, traditional approaches to
security are retained in the analyses offered here.
The works within this book are divided into three
parts, focusing on the impacts of Russia and the
United States on European security, develop-
ments in Central and Eastern Europe and their
attendant impacts, and Russian regional security,
using a state and institutions-based analysis.
Balance of power, nuclear disarmament, tran-
sitional states and the roles of institutions (par-
ticularly NATO and the EU) are the central
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