Book Review: Michael Brecher, International Political Earthquakes (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 2008, 352 pp., £61.00 hbk)
| Date | 01 September 2011 |
| Published date | 01 September 2011 |
| Author | Etel Solingen |
| DOI | 10.1177/03058298110400011203 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
190 Millennium: Journal of International Studies 40(1)
throughout the period, like the intentional leak that revealed America’s decision to base
atomic bombers in Korea. Such moves were undoubtedly the cause of Mao’s confidence
in sending troops across the Yalu, as the Chinese leader genuinely believed that the
American ‘paper tiger’ (threat of atomic war) was weak when faced with a massive,
dispersed enemy position. This fits with the author’s proposed theory of doctrinal dif-
ferentiation. The belief in very different ‘theories of victory’ saw the deployment of dif-
ferent strategic force methods and, subsequently, deterrence failure, leading to the
outbreak of Sino-American engagement on the Korean Peninsula.
In the following sections, Twomey explores different historical instances where doctri-
nal difference theory applies. Doctrinal differentiation, he argues, catalysed the outbreak
of conflict in the Middle East between Israel, Egypt and Syria in the 1950–73 period, with
Israeli reliance on armoured and air divisions countering the early infantry-oriented,
defence-in-depth focus of Egyptian and Syrian forces, but resulting in overconfidence and
underestimation of enemy forces during the 1973 Yom-Kippur War (pp. 207–12). The
validity of this thought-provoking model would benefit from its future application not
only in areas where realism has failed to predict conflict, but also in the numerous situa-
tions where realism has only partially explained patterns of international behaviour.
The doctrinal differentiation model of The Military Lens is a useful methodological
tool for the examination of inter-state behaviour in conflict spirals. Twomey rounds out
his well-planned book by pointing to rising doctrinal inconsistencies in current Sino-
American relations. Policymakers and scholars in the field alike would do well to take
note of this study, as it is clear that such findings could be used as a blueprint for develop-
ing further in-depth analyses of the effects of dissimilar doctrines on political and mili-
tary deterrence deployments.
Christopher Whyte
Christopher Whyte is a graduate student and a researcher at George Mason University,
Virginia, USA.
Michael Brecher, International Political Earthquakes (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press,
2008, 352 pp., £61.00 hbk).
Michael Brecher’s International Political Earthquakes (IPE) distils the core lessons
from a lifetime of engagement with the study of international crises. The body of work
that resulted from decades of meticulous research presciently avoided methodological
warfare by combining large-n and careful qualitative analysis. Revealing a most impres-
sive wealth of knowledge on international conflicts since the end of the First World War,
IPE provides careful definitions and cautious suggestions for measuring them.
Space constraints preclude a comprehensive listing of this massive volume’s findings,
which include the fact that there have been slightly more crises within than outside pro-
tracted conflicts (persistent violence among the same actors), and both types had roughly
the same duration, although protracted conflicts had more violent crisis triggers, higher
perceived value threats and more ambiguous crisis outcomes. The proneness of crises to
To continue reading
Request your trial