Brexit and ‘Unknown Unknowns’
| Author | Peter Geoghegan |
| DOI | 10.1177/2041905819871834 |
| Published date | 01 September 2019 |
| Date | 01 September 2019 |
SEPTEMBER 2019 • POLITICAL INSIGHT 3
Brexit and
‘Unknown
Unknowns’
Ahead of the Iraq War in
2003, Donald Rumsfeld
told journalists at a press
conference at NATO
Headquarters in Brussels that there
were ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown
unknowns’. The then US Secretary of
Defence was widely pilloried for what many
commentators saw as yet another gaffe
from an error-prone administration.
But Rumsfeld’s comments were not as
misguided as they might appear on rst
reading. In politics – as in war – there are
things that we know that we don’t know.
Nobody knows what economic growth will
be in two years’ time. But that does not mean
you do not plan for the future.
Far more potentially damaging are those
‘unknown unknowns’. These are the issues
that nobody is even thinking about, but
which could dramatically change the political
landscape.
Before the 2016 referendum, Brexit was
a known unknown. Now, however, the UK’s
departure could open up a whole range of
unknown unknowns – especially if Britain
leaves without a deal.
How will British importers access European
markets? What will life look like along the Irish
border? How will voters react to no-deal?
These are just some of the more obvious
unknown unknowns. There are potentially
many, many more.
In this issue’s cover feature, Andrew S.
Crines looks at one of the biggest unknowns
in British politics right now: who is Boris
Johnson and how will he govern? Crines
analyses where the new Prime Minister sits in
the typology of British conservatism and nds
that, like most Tory party members, Johnson
tends towards a free market Thatcherite view
of the world.
Already, Johnson has presented himself as
very much the opposite of his predecessor
Theresa May, who was often presented as
grimly predictable. As May leaves oce,
Graham Goodlad examines the causes of her
downfall – and why it took so long to reach
the end-game in Downing Street.
Anand Menon takes over the regular
Last Word slot to argue powerfully that
while Brexit has consumed Whitehall and
Westminster, British politics has ignored the
frustration that contributed to the vote to
leave the European Union in the rst place.
Over three years on from a referendum that
saw many people protest about the state of
their lives, virtually nothing has been done
to address this discontent.
On a similar theme, Daniel Harrison,
winner of the Political Studies Association’s
essay prize competition in association with
the
Financial Times
, asks how Britain’s broken
politics can be xed. The crumbling Palace
of Westminster is getting a refurbishment
– but what about our creaking democratic
processes?
We also look back on a scandal that had
a major impact on how British voters view
politics and politicians: MPs’ expenses.
A decade on from the second homes
and duck moats, Matthew Flinders and
Alexandra Anderson nd that the expenses
scandal has contributed to the negative
perception of politics held by many.
One area of public life that has seen
rising public support is the British military.
In a compelling account, Paul Dixon shows
how our military elite successfully blamed
politicians for failure in Iraq and Afghanistan to
extend their inuence over policy and society.
Brexit was supposed to guarantee that
the UK would not participate European
Parliament elections. But after an extension
to the negotiations with the EU, Britain went
to the polls in May along with 27 other
European states. John Curtice looks back
and nds an electorate deeply divided on
Brexit and a two-party system struggling to
maintain its political hold.
The European Parliament elections did
not see the predicted surge for anti-EU
parties, but Sara Hobolt argues that the vote
has ushered in a more fragmented political
landscape in Europe. In the regular In Focus
slot, Benjamin D. Hennig maps an election
that has left big questions for the future of
the European project.
Elsewhere, Rekha Diwakar reports on the
future of India’s democracy, where Prime
Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu
nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party have
become the dominant political force. Mark
Bennister and Simon Obendorf analyse
the recent Australian elections that saw an
unexpected victory for the incumbent right-
wing administration.
Finally, Thomas Loughran, Andrew
Mycock, and Jon Tonge report on new
research that suggests any reform of
our electoral system needs to consider a
number of proposals including demands for
16 and 17-year-olds to be allowed to vote.
The unknown is just about the only
certainty in politics right now. If you would
like to join the debates or contribute to
Political Insight get in touch or visit www.
psa.ac.uk/insight-plus.
Peter Geoghegan
Editor
Political Insight SEPT2019.indd 3 01/08/2019 14:10
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