Can the Alliance Replace Labour as the Main Party of Opposition?
| Author | Paul Whiteley |
| Published date | 01 April 1984 |
| Date | 01 April 1984 |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1467-9256.1984.tb00083.x |
| Subject Matter | Article |
CAN THE ALLIANCE REPLACE LABOUR AS THE
Paul Whi
tel
ey
MAIN
PARTY
OF
OPPOSITION?
It would
be
an understatement
to
say that the 1983 General Election was a
bad defeat for Labour.
the worst since 1918.
would need to capture
116
seats, requiring a two-party swing of
11
per cent.
The
only time a swing
of
that magnitude has occurred since the war was in 1945
when the two-party swing was
just
under
11
per cent.
more difficult by the SDP/Liberal Alliance's achievement in pushing Labour into
third place in many constituencies. Of the 397 Conservative seats in the new
House of
Commons,
the Alliance came second in 265 and Labour
in
125. This raises
the prospect that Labour could be eclipsed as the main party of opposition by the
Alliance or
some
new party formed from a merger of
the
Liberals and
the
SDP.
This brief paper examines the prospects for such a development in the light of
survey evidence available during and after the June 1983 election campaign.
shall assess the comparative performance of Labour and the Alliance at the election
in terms of general party images, political
support
for party leaders and levels
of
support
on policies.
The Party's share of the popular vote in the election
was
To
win an overall majority at
the
next election Labour
Labour's task has been made
We
The
comparative
support
for
the
AZZiance
and
Labour
in
1983
I
have argued elsewhere that electoral behaviour is a product of objective
social status, measured by the individual's relationships
to
the means of produc-
tion and consumption, and subjective factors principally voters' evaluations
of
the instrumental and affective characteristics of parties (Whiteley, 1983,
pp.81-
107). Subjective or attitudinal factors appear
to
be much more important than
objective social status
in
determining voting behaviour, and
within
that category
of subjective factors ,affective and retrospective assessments of performance are
much more important than prospective assessments of pol icy proposal
s.
words,
voters assess political parties primarily
on
their performance and
on
their
general image,
not
on
the promises they make.
comparative standing
of
the Alliance and Labour in 1983 by concentrating
on
general
party images and voters' evaluations
of
policy performance.
Table
1
uses
Gallup data to examine two aspects of general party images during
the election campaign itself, and immediately after the party conference season in
November 1983.
Labour in the election
on
their respective overall party images and appearance of
internal unity.
showing that the party paid a heavy price for the internal conflicts which erupted
in
1981.
divided and unfit
to
govern.
than Labour, although they were some way behind
the
Conservatives.
shows that the Alliance did not have such a marked advantage over Labour
on
party
policies and images of leadership.
On
policies, the differences between the Alli-
ance and Labour were not negligible, and the Alliance had only a marginal advantage
on
leadership preferences.
Thus
the
Alliance's decisive advantage over Labour
in
the election related principally to Labour's apparent internal civil war rather
than
to
positive features of the Alliance's appeal.
In other
Accordingly,
we
can assess the
It is clear that
the
Alliance had a significant advantage over
Very few respondents thought that Labour was a united party,
Throughout the campaign, Labour seemed
to
most voters to be bitterly
The Alliance by contrast had a much better image
Table
1
also
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