Catastrophic Climate Change and Forest Tipping Points: Blind Spots in International Politics and Policy
| Author | Eduardo Viola,Joana Castro Pereira |
| Published date | 01 November 2018 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12578 |
| Date | 01 November 2018 |
Catastrophic Climate Change and Forest
Tipping Points: Blind Spots in International
Politics and Policy
Joana Castro Pereira
Lus
ıada University
Eduardo Viola
University of Bras
ılia
Abstract
Scientists believe that humanity has already crossed the core planetary boundary for climate change, and is closer to crossing
thresholds that trigger abrupt and irreversible environmental changes. Consequently, academia and the international political
community should not disregard the prospect of a catastrophic environmental event. However, discussions about climate
change usually assume the resilience of potentially deteriorating terrestrial-biosphere carbon sinks and rarely acknowledge
catastrophic climate risk. Reviewing the latest scientific evidence on anthropogenic climate change, as well as the current and
projected threats to the resilience of key large forest biomes, and combining them with the profound political frailties of the
Paris Climate Agreement, this article argues that catastrophic climate risk is much more serious and likely than most of
humanity is able to perceive and should thus be seriously considered. It emphasizes the massive gap between science and
political action and how cognitive, cultural, institutional, and political limitations hinder our capacity to envisage, prevent, and
ultimately manage catastrophic climate change. The article concludes by briefly raising awareness regarding the role that aca-
demia should play in catastrophic climate risk reduction.
Policy Insights
•Consistent social science research on catastrophic climate change (CCC) and forest tipping points could promote more
advanced modelling and assessment by the IPCC, which would be very relevant for developing a more enlightened and
robust global climate policy.
•Given the extreme complexity of the problem and the strong difficulties in drawing attention to long-term risks, communi-
cating CCC to the global elites and mass public is a very challenging task. Consequently, the UNFCCC should promote
innovative social science research on the challenges with and opportunities in dealing with the problem.
•The most important climate science communities –the USA, Canada, the European Union, Japan, China, India, Russia, Bra-
zil, and Mexico –should create a forum for promoting advanced cooperative research on CCC.
•A greater focus on boreal forests’carbon stocks in international political fora is essential for averting CCC.
•Raising awareness among the social science community about the urgent need for research on the relationship between
CCC and the dieback of the Amazon rainforest will have a beneficial impact on the national climate policies of the Amazo-
nian countries, as well as on the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO).
Scientists have classified anthropogenic climate change
according to its level of danger and destructiveness: incre-
mental, dangerous, or catastrophic. We have been aware
that humanity is living under incremental climate change
since the 1990s, despite it starting in approximately 1900
and having accelerated since the 1950s. Incremental climate
change occurs when there is a cumulative increase in global
average temperatures at a pace of approximately 0.1°C per
decade. This change has been the case since 1950. In the
beginning of the twenty-first century, the scientific commu-
nity has associated dangerous climate change with an
increase in the global average temperature beyond 1.5°C/
2°C (relative to 1900). Dangerous climate change was politi-
cally accepted in the Copenhagen Agreement with the 2°C
limit and expanded in the Paris Climate Agreement to 1.5°C.
Since the beginning of 2015, the rise in global temperatures
has accelerated in a manner that contradicts previous cli-
mate models; consequently, there is growing consensus
among scientists that humanity might be coming very close
to dangerous climate change in the next one to two dec-
ades. Catastrophic climate change (CCC) has been associ-
ated with the moment at which one or more tipping points
in the Earth’s climate system are reached. These points
include the melting of Greenland’s ice shelf, Arctic Sea ice
Global Policy (2018) 9:4 doi: 10.1111/1758-5899.12578 ©2018 University of Durham and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Global Policy Volume 9 . Issue 4 . November 2018 513
Research Article
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