Cause for Conservative Concern
| Published date | 01 June 2022 |
| Author | Peter Geoghegan |
| Date | 01 June 2022 |
| DOI | 10.1177/20419058221108774 |
JUNE 2022 • POLITICAL INSIGHT 3
Cause for
Conservative
Concern
Boris Johnson has often been described
as a lucky general. His supporters point
to his various election victories, from
seizing London’s City Hall from Labour
to the ‘stonking’ 80-seat majority he won in the
2019 General Election. Even detractors have
long said that Johnson has a habit of surviving
political blows that would prove fatal to others.
Some British political commentators predicted
that Johnson’s luck would nally run out in May’s
local elections. Against a backdrop of ‘partygate’
in Westminster, sleaze allegations and a rising
cost of living, surely the Prime Minister would
suer badly at the ballot box?
The results, however, were less conclusive. The
Conservatives lost seats – and iconic councils such
as Wandsworth and Westminster – but Johnson
seemed to emerge unscathed. However, behind
the headline gures the results showed some
serious cause for Conservative concern.
Writing in this issue’s cover feature, John
Curtice nds that the 485 seats that the party
lost in May, represented as many as one in four
of all the seats that the Tories were trying to
defend. Possibly even more worrying for CCHQ,
it was often the Liberal Democrats who picked
up disillusioned Tory voters.
May’s elections also revealed, once again, the
fragile nature of the United Kingdom itself. In
Scotland, the Scottish National Party – in power
in Edinburgh for 15 years – chalked up its 11th
election win in a row and its best ever local
election. Polls suggest that independence is now
backed by two-thirds of Scotland’s under-55s.
Arguably, the most notable result was in
Northern Ireland, where Sinn Féin won most
Assembly seats and the right to nominate a First
Minister. The largest party in the Assembly is
now one committed to Ireland’s reunication.
The cross-community Alliance Party had its best
result ever with the Democratic Unionist Party
losing ground.
Analysing the Northern Ireland election, Jon
Tonge nds that the vote brought a reordering
of the biggest parties in Northern Ireland but
little indication that the electorate’s verdict
would be followed by political stability within
functioning institutions.
Writing for Political Insight, former SNP MP
and now Professor of International Relations
Stephen Gethins, contends that the UK is drifting
apart with limited serious debate or discussion.
Behind Boris Johnson’s strident unionist rhetoric,
Gethins argues, lies a lack of engagement with
the reality of devolution while many voters
outside England increasingly turn away from
Westminster.
Perhaps one part of the problem is
Westminster itself – and not just its political
culture. In the regular Last Word slot, Hannah
White arguesthat the Palace of Westminster is
both in need of reform and restoration.
For more than 40 years, a series of ocial
reports have documented serious risks of
re, ood, crumbling masonry, asbestos and
outdated mechanical and electrical machinery
which plague the building. But despite all these
warnings, almost no progress has been made on
restoring the Palace.. This year, MPs even voted
to dismantle the ‘sponsor body’ which their
predecessors had established to reduce political
interference in the restoration programme.
One thing that has changed in Westminster
is the amount of data that voters can access
about what goes on there. Since 2005, a
whole armoury of transparency tools has been
developed, from Freedom of Information laws
and Registers of Financial Interests to third-party
websites and automated Twitter bots that scrape
government transparency releases. Is all this data
good for democracy? Ben Worthy, Cat Morgan
and Stefani Langehennig investigate.
Away from the UK, Indrajit Roy reports from
India, where Hindu nationalist Prime Minister
Narendra Modi has overseen a rapid erosion
of democratic norms and human rights,
particularly for Muslims. As Roy writes, the world’s
largest democracy is sliding towards ‘electoral
ethnocracy’.
In many respects, Russia has been an electoral
autocracy for a number of years. Alexander Titov
analyses the impact of the war in Ukraine on
Russia and nds that while Vladimir Putin has
been roundly condemned for the invasion, at
home in Russia the President remains rmly in
control.
Meanwhile, in Turkey,‘strongman’ Recep
Tayyip Erdogan has dominated politics for two
decades. As Erdogan ramps up repression at
home and tensions abroad ahead of next year’s
elections, Alexander Clarkson warns that the EU
and its allies need to do much more if Turkey’s
anti-Western turn is to be reversed.
In the regular In Focus slot this issue, Benjamin
D. Hennig maps the recent French election.
Emmanuel Macron retained power but there are
growing signs of discontent and disillusionment
among France’s electorate. The far right has been
defeated for now but the warning signs about
the future are ashing.
Elsewhere, Paula Keaveney reports on a
growing part of election integrity around the
world: election observation. A veteran of election
observer teams in Uzbekistan, North Macedonia,
Serbia, Moldova and Ukraine, Keaveney explores
how election observation works and how
observers can help oil the wheels of democracy.
I want to take the opportunity to thank you all
for your continuing support. If you would like to
join the debates or contribute to Political Insight
get in touch.
Peter Geoghegan
Editor
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