Cause of death in fatal missing person cases in England and Wales
| Published date | 01 December 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/14613557231182049 |
| Author | Jessica Whibley,Geoff Newiss,Craig JR Collie |
| Date | 01 December 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Original Research Articles |
Cause of death in fatal missing person cases
in England and Wales
Jessica Whibley, Geoff Newiss, and Craig JR Collie
University of Portsmouth, UK
Abstract
Typically, fewer than 0.5% of missing incidents result in an individual being found deceased. Whereas previous research has
examined the features of missing–homicide, missing–suicide and some aspects of missing–accident cases, this study sought
to provide the first reliable estimates of the number and proportion of fatalities by all causes of death, specifically: suicide,
accident, homicide and natural causes. Using data obtained on 615 fatal disappearances via Freedom of Information
returns from 22 English and Welsh police forces covering a two-year period, this article presents data on the relative
probability of fatality by cause of death for adults and children and for males and females. Overall, fatal outcomes are,
thankfully, rare, occurring once in every 358 missing incidents. Some 98% of fatalities involved adults; just over 80%
involved males. The findings affirm suicide as the largest single cause of death accounting for three-quarters of female
fatalities and four in every five male fatalities. Although homicide was the least probable cause of death among male miss-
ing persons, females faced a roughly similar chance of dying as a result of an accident or homicide. The research indicates
that estimates of probability can be used to inform investigative decision-making and scenario development, offering
important context to the overall likelihood of an individual facing a fatal outcome. Further research is needed to replicate
these findings.
Keywords
Missing persons, risk, fatality, policing
Submitted 30 Mar 2023, accepted 19 May 2023
Introduction
In the United Kingdom (UK), someone is recorded missing
every 90 seconds (Missing People, 2021). Although most
missing individuals will be found, a small minority come
to harm, some losing their lives. In England and Wales, in
2019/202020,762 missing person cases resultedin a fatality,
equivalent to 0.5% of the 155,211 individuals who went
missing, and 0.2% of the 325,171 missing person incidents
recorded by police (UK Missing Persons Unit, 2020). This
is broadly consistent with previous estimates of the rate of
fatality in missing persons cases in England and Wales of
between 0.3% and 0.6% (Newiss, 1999, 2006).
Annual statistics published by the UK Missing Persons
Unit do not provide any information on the cause of death
in fatal disappearances. Although previously published
research offers some insights (a review is given in the next
section), to date there exists no reliable account of the
number and proportion of fatalities –and the absolute and
relative probability of fatality –by all causes of death(specif-
ically suicide, accident, homicide and natural causes) drawn
from a reasonably large sample of missing person cases
reported to the police. This research sought to address this
notable knowledge gap.
Understanding the relative probability of cause-specific
fatality provides an important context to police risk assessment
Corresponding author:
Craig JR Collie, University of Portsmouth, St George’s Building, 141 High
Street, Portsmouth PO1 2HY, UK.
Email: craig.collie@port.ac.uk
Original Research Article
International Journal of
Police Science & Management
2023, Vol. 25(4) 422–432
© The Author(s) 2023
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/14613557231182049
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