Characterising and predicting cyber attacks using the Cyber Attacker Model Profile (CAMP)
| Date | 05 October 2012 |
| Pages | 430-441 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/13685201211266015 |
| Published date | 05 October 2012 |
| Author | Paul A. Watters,Stephen McCombie,Robert Layton,Josef Pieprzyk |
| Subject Matter | Accounting & finance |
Characterising and predicting
cyber attacks using the Cyber
Attacker Model Profile (CAMP)
Paul A. Watters
Internet Commerce Security Laboratory (ICSL), University of Ballarat,
Ballarat, Australia
Stephen McCombie
Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism (PICT),
Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia
Robert Layton
Internet Commerce Security Laboratory (ICSL), University of Ballarat,
Ballarat, Australia, and
Josef Pieprzyk
Centre for Advanced Computing and Cryptography (ACAC),
Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia
Abstract
Purpose – Ethnographic studies of cyber attacks typically aim to explain a particular profile of
attackers in qualitative terms. The purpose of this paper is to formalise some of the approaches to build a
Cyber Attacker Model Profile (CAMP) that can be used to characterise and predict cyber attacks.
Design/methodology/approach – The paper builds a model using social and economic independent
or predictive variables from several eastern European countries and benchmarks indicators of
cybercrime within the Australian financial services system.
Findings – The paper found a very strong link between perceived corruption and GDP in two distinct
groups of countries – corruption in Russia was closely linked to the GDP of Belarus, Moldova and
Russia, while corruption in Lithuania was linked to GDP in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine. At
the same time corruption in Russia and Ukraine were also closely linked. These results support previous
research that indicates a strong link between been legitimate economy and the black economy in many
countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic states. The results of the regression analysis suggest that a
highly skilled workforce which is mobile and working in an environment of high perceived corruption in
the target countries is related to increases in cybercrime even within Australia. It is important to note
that the data used for the dependent and independent variables were gathered over a seven year time
period, which included large economic shocks such as the global financial crisis.
Originality/value – This is the first paper to use a modelling approach to directly show the
relationship between various social, economic and demographic factors in the Baltic states and Eastern
Europe, and the level of card skimming and card not present fraud in Australia.
Keywords Modelling, Profiling, Ethnography,Criminology, Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Lithuania,
Estonia, Latvia,Ukraine, Australia
Paper type Research paper
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at
www.emeraldinsight.com/1368-5201.htm
Paul A. Watters and Robert Layton are funded by IBM, Westpac, the State Government
of Victoria and the Australian Federal Police.
JMLC
15,4
430
Journal of Money Laundering Control
Vol. 15 No. 4, 2012
pp. 430-441
qEmerald Group Publishing Limited
1368-5201
DOI 10.1108/13685201211266015
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