China's Great Leap Backward
| Author | Grainne Ryder,Patricia Adams |
| DOI | 10.1177/002070209805300407 |
| Published date | 01 December 1998 |
| Date | 01 December 1998 |
| Subject Matter | Article |
PATRICIA
ADAMS
&
GRAINNE
RYDER
China's
great
leap
backward
Uneconomic
and
outdated,
the
Three
Gorges
dam
will
stunt
China's
economic
growth
THE
TRAGEDY
OF
THE
THREE
GORGES
DAM
goes
beyond the
nearly
two
million people who
will
be
resettled
from
their
homes,
villages,
farms,
temples,
and
work
places
to
make
way
for
it,
beyond
the
1,300
sites
of
cultural
antiquities
and
the 100,000
hectares
of
precious
farmland
that
will
be
submerged
forever
under the 600
kilometre
long
reservoir,
and
beyond
the
rare
species
that
it will likely
render
extinct.
Ironically, the
tragedy created
by
the
Three
Gorges
will also
extend
to
the
economy
and
its
electricity sector
-
the
chief
justification
for
building
the
dam.
The
Chinese government
must
maintain
the
status
quo
in
the
electric-
ity
sector
to protect
the
twentieth
century's
largest
state
vanity
project
from
market
discipline
and
public
oversight.
While
rapid
technologi-
cal
advances
in
electricity
markets
around
the
world
will
deliver
cheap-
er,
cleaner,
and
more
readily
available
power,
Chinese
citizens
will
be
forced
to buy
dirty,
expensive,
and
unreliable
power.
As
a
source
of
electricity,
the
Three
Gorges
dam
cannot
compete
with
the alterna-
tives.
As
a
symbol,
the dam
sends
out
the
discouraging
signal
that
in
China
the
central
planners
are alive
and
well
and
at
the helm.
The Chi-
nese
economy
and
all
its
citizens
will
lose
if
the dam
is
completed.
Patricia
Adams,
an
economist,
is
Executive
Director
of
Probe
International
in
Toronto.
Grdinne
Ryder,
a
water
resources
engineer,
heads
Probe
International's
Mekongprogramme.
INTERNATIONAL
JOURNAL
Autumn
1998
Patricia
Adams
&
Grafnne
Ryder
THE
MAELSTROM
OF
THREE
GORGES
We
know
a
great
deal
about
the
Three
Gorges
dam,
now
under
con-
struction
on
China's
Yangtze
River
which
flows
past
the
major
cities
of
Chongqing
and Wuhan
to
the
East
China
Sea
at Shanghai.
It
would
be
the
largest
dam
in
the world,
with
an
installed
capacity
of
17,680
megawatts,
and
the
most
expensive,
costing
$28
billion
according
to
official
sources,
$34-36
billion
according
to
industry
sources,
and
$77
billion
according
to an
independent
Chinese banker
knowledgeable
about
the project.'
It
would
displace
more people
-
1.98
million
according
to
the
latest
figures2
-
than
any
dam
in
history
and
flood
13
cities,
140
towns,
over
a
thousand
villages,
factories,
farms,
temples,
and
archeological
treasures
dating
back to
50,000
BC.
3
With
27
sub-
merged
spillway
bays
(each
with
the
average
flow
of
the
Missouri
River)
that
are,
according
to
Canadian
engineers,
'well
beyond
proven
world
experience,'
4 it
would
be
daringly experimental.
Without
a
doubt,
it
would
be
the
most
challenging:
the
Yangtze
River has
the
fifth
highest
silt
load
of
any
river in
the
world,
and
the
dam's
engineers
will
be
pushed
to
find
a
way
to
flush
silt
through
the
reservoir,
something
that
has never
been
done
successfully
before.'
Outside
China,
the
problems besetting
the
project
are
well
known.
No
other
dam
in
history
has
received
more
ink.
Every
major
daily
newspaper from
the
Wall
StreetJournal
to
the
Guardian,
every
major
magazine
from
National
Geographic
to
Time,
and
every
major
TV
net-
work
has
dedicated
prime
space
and
time
to the
debate
and
to
the
costs
that
the
dam
will
inflict
on
the
Chinese people,
its
environment,
and
its
economy.
i
'Some
issues
regarding
the
preliminary
design
of
the
Three
Gorges
project,'
in
Dai
Qing,
Yangtze! Yangtze!
(London
and
Toronto:
Earthscan
1994),
282;
Jacob
P.
Alpren,
'China
cool
to
U.S.
turbine bids,'
Globe
and
Mail
(Toronto),
21
May
1996;
Joseph
Kahn,
'Dammed
Yangtze,'
Wall
Street
Journal,
18
April
1994; and
Chad Rade-
man,
'Three Gorges
befuddles financiers,'
Institutional
Investor,
June
1995.
All
fig-
ures
are
in
US
dollars
unless
otherwise
noted.
2
Qi
Ren,
'Discussing
population
resettlement
with
Li
Boning,'
in
Dai
Qing,
The
River
Dragon
Has
Come!
(New
York,
London:
M.E.
Sharpe
1998),
50-5.
3
Elizabeth
Childs-Johnson
and
Lawrence
R.
Sullivan,
'The Three
Gorges dam
and
the
fate
of
China's
southern
heritage,'
in
Dai
Qing,
The
River
Dragon,
200-10.
4
Canadian
International
Project Managers
Yangtze
Joint Venture,
Three
Gorges
Water
Control
Project
Feasibility
Study,
Volume
4,
March
1988,12-7.
5
Philip
B.
Williams, 'Sedimentation Analysis,'
in
Margaret
Barber
and
Grginne
Ryder,
eds,
Damming the
Three
Gorges:
What
Dam
Builders
Don't
Want
You
To
Know
(London
and
Toronto:
Earthscan
1993),
133-44.
688
INTERNATIONAL
JOURNAL
Autumn
1998
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