Climate and cohesion: The effects of droughts on intra-ethnic and inter-ethnic trust
| Author | Alexander De Juan,Niklas Hänze |
| Published date | 01 January 2021 |
| Date | 01 January 2021 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/0022343320974096 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
Climate and cohesion: The effects of droughts
on intra-ethnic and inter-ethnic trust
Alexander De Juan
School of Cultural Studies and Social Sciences, University of Osnabru
¨ck
Niklas Ha
¨nze
Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Konstanz
Abstract
While a large body of research has highlighted the conflict-inducing effects of climate change, we still know very little
about the mechanisms linking environmental conditions to violent conflict. This article investigates the plausibility
of a prominent channel according to which scarcity of natural resources can foster violent conflict through deterior-
ating intergroup relations. In addition to assessing the direct effects of adverse environmental conditions on intra-
ethnic and inter-ethnic trust, we suggest a conditional argument on the role of horizontal inequality of hazard
exposure. Environmental hazards are ‘unequal’ if they systematically affect ethnic groups differently. While inequal-
ity may reinforce intra-ethnic ties and out-group suspicion, equal hazard exposure may create a sense of unity among
diverse victims in their collective struggle to cope with harsh environmental conditions. We test these arguments in
the context of the severe drought periods that affected most East African countries in the years 2004 and 2005. The
empirical analysis combines gridded information on drought severity with geo-located survey data across six countries
in the region (Afrobarometer survey 2005/2006). Our main analyses find that exposure to drought hazards correlates
positively with self-reported trust within and across ethnic groups. The latter association, however, depends on the
degree of intergroup equality of hazard exposure and wanes as inequality increases. Taken together, these findings
indicate that if droughts increase the risk of violent conflict, they seem to do so through mechanisms other than
intergroup polarization and despite their positive association with ethnic trust. This is most likely the case in contexts
where there is pronounced horizontal inequality of drought hazards.
Keywords
Africa, Afrobarometer, drought, ethnic trust, violent conflict
Introduction
Recent accounts from northern Mali vividly describe
how inter-ethnic relations can deteriorate and lead to
massive outbursts of violence in the face of struggles over
scarce natural resources:
Mahamadou Souleymane, a Fulani herder, fled his
village last year when militiamen from the Dogon
ethnic group attacked. ‘They were our friends from
our great, great grandfathers,’ says Mr Souleymane.
But one day last year, they came with automatic rifles
and machetes. [ ...] They told the villagers that if
they did not leave, ‘no one will survive. We will kill
everyone.’ (Economist, 2019)
This incident reflects a prominent argument in the academic
literature on the effects of environmental scarcity: as envi-
ronmental conditions deteriorate, limited access to essential
common goods such as water and food triggers competition
among ethnic, religious or regional identity groups.
1
In the
Corresponding author:
Email: alexander.dejuan@uni-osnabrueck.de
1
In the following we use ‘environmental scarcity’, ‘scarcity’,
‘environmental stress’, and ‘adverse environmental conditions’ as
synonymous and we define it as a critical depletion or degradation
of renewable natural resources.
Journal of Peace Research
2021, Vol. 58(1) 151–167
ªThe Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343320974096
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face of existential threats, people rally around salient social
identities. These in-group processes often go along with
increased out-group polarization. Taken together, both pro-
cesses increase the likelihood that scarcity will trigger violent
conflict across distinct identity groups. However,case studies
demonstrate that environmental challenges can also
strengthen trust and cooperation (e.g. Aksoy & Palma,
2019). They lend empirical support to research that high-
lights that environmental hazards can reduce rather than
increase the risk of violence. More specifically, hazards may
contribute to creating ‘communities of fate’ that supersede
pre-existing differences.
Our article aims to make two contributions to this
ongoing debate on the effects of adverse environmen-
tal conditions. First, we investigate the underlying
mechanisms of the two arguments presented above.
We make use of individual-level survey data to assess
the effects of environmental scarcity on intragroup
and intergroup attitudes. How does scarcity affect
people’s perceptions of members of their own and
of other ethnic groups?
Second, we conduct an explorative analysis of a poten-
tial explanation of the heterogeneous effects of environ-
mental scarcity documented by previous studies cited
above: the effects may depend on the horizontal inequal-
ity of environmental hazards. Environmental scarcity
may contribute to improving intergroup attitudes if it
affects various ethnic groups to a similar extent. Conver-
sely, high levels of hazard inequality across ethnic,
religious or regional lines may trigger antagonizing
in-group/out-group processes, intergroup competition,
and ultimately violent conflict.
We investigate these hypotheses in the context of the
severe droughts
2
that hit many parts of the African con-
tinent in the years 2004 and 2005. The countries in the
southeastern region were affected particularly severely.
Especially low levels of precipitation during the 2004
and 2005 rainy and growing seasons had a massive
impact on agricultural production, compromising the
livelihoods and food security of approximately 11 to
12 million people across Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique,
Malawi, Zambia, and Uganda. Our analyses investigate
the effects of individual-level variation in drought expo-
sure within these severely affected countries. This
approach allows us to get a better understanding of the
micro-level dynamics taking place within countries that
are exposed to harsh environmental conditions.
Our empirical analyses rely on geo-coded survey data
provided by the Afrobarometer project. The third survey
round conducted in 2005 and early 2006 comprises
interviews with around 8,500 respondents across the six
countries under investigation. Importantly and contrary
to other rounds of the Afrobarometer, this survey wave
includes several items that allow us to gauge respondents’
trust in members of their own and other ethnic groups.
We spatially join these geo-referenced survey data with
high-resolution data on drought conditions in the 12
months-period prior to the survey data collection.
We proceed in three steps. First, in order to validate
our exogenous drought measure, we investigate correla-
tions between individual-level drought exposure and the
extent to which respondents judge food security and
famine to constitute the most pressing problem that the
government should address. We then proceed to an
analysis of associations between individual-level drought
exposure and self-reported intra-ethnic and inter-ethnic
trust.Finally,weconstructameasureofinter-ethnic
inequality of drought exposure to assess to what extent
the effects of individual-level exposure are conditional on
horizontal hazard-inequality.
Our primary results can be summarized as follows.
We find consistent and substantive correlations between
objective drought exposure and subjective measures of
food insecurity/famine, reinforcing our confidence in
our data and empirical design. In our main analysis,
we find that drought exposur e influences intra-ethnic
and inter-ethnic trust in a similar way and to a similar
extent: individuals who have been heavily exposed to
drought conditions have higher levels of self-reported
trust in members of their own and members of other
ethnic groups. The positive correlation with inter-ethnic
perceptions, however, appears to depend on horizontal
hazard-equality and to wane as intergroup inequality
increases.
While this article does not focus on the effects of
environmental scarcity on violent conflict, it nonetheless
contributes to our understanding of how environmental
conditions may or may not affect the risk of conflict. Our
first contribution consists of a systematic assessment of
the micro-foundations of a prominent argument on how
environmental scarcity can influence intergroup conflict.
We find no evidence that supports the assumption that
scarcity fosters intergroup polarization. Our results indi-
cate that if droughts increase the risk of violence, then
they seem to do so through other mechanisms and despite
their effect on ethnic trust.
Second, our findings also suggest that the degree of
intergroup equality of hazard exposure shapes the
2
As long periods of below average water supply, droughts are one
example of environmental scarcity.
152 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 58(1)
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