Climate change and international water conflict in Central Asia
| Published date | 01 January 2012 |
| Author | Tobias Siegfried,Thomas Bernauer |
| Date | 01 January 2012 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343311425843 |
| Subject Matter | Research Articles |
Climate change and international water
conflict in Central Asia
Thomas Bernauer
ETH Zu
¨rich, Center for Comparative and International Studies
& Institute for Environmental Decisions
Tobias Siegfried
hydrosolutions GmbH, Zu
¨rich
Abstract
We engage in a critical assessment of the neo-malthusian claim that climatic changes can be an important source of
international tensions, in the extreme even militarized interstate disputes. The most likely scenario is conflict over
water allocation in international catchments shared by poorer, less democratic, and politically less stable countries,
governed by weak international water management institutions, and exposed to severe climatic changes. The Syr
Darya corresponds quite well to all these characteristics. If the neo-malthusian specter of conflict over water is
empirically relevant, we should see signs of this in the Syr Darya. The riparian countries of the Aral Sea basin have
experienced international disputes over water allocation ever since the USSR collapsed and, with it, existing water
management institutions and funding. The worst such dispute concerns the Syr Darya, one of th e twol argest rivers
in Central Asia. Based on hydrological data and other information we find that the only existing international
water management institution in the Syr Darya has failed. Based on a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-
runoff model for the Syr Darya, we then examine whether, in the absence of an effective international water allo-
cation mechanism, climate change is likely to make existing international tensions over water allocation worse. We
find that climate change-induced shifts in river runoff, to which the Uzbek part of the Syr Darya catchment is
particularly vulnerable, and which could contribute to a deterioration of already strained Kyrgyz–Uzbek relations,
are likely to set in only in the medium to long term. This leaves some time for the riparian countries to set up
an effective international framework for water allocation and prevention of climate-induced geohazards. By impli-
cation, our findings suggest that a climate change-induced militarized interstate dispute over water resources in
Central Asia is unlikely.
Keywords
Central Asia, climate change, conflict, international river, Syr Darya, water
Introduction
Existing research shows that one of the most important
social and political risks associated with climate change
pertains to water availability. It also shows, in this con-
text, that the greatest risk of international disputes and
perhaps even militarized interstate conflict is likely to
materialize in international water systems located in poor
and politically unstable parts of the world (Bernauer &
Kalbhenn, 2010; Dinar & Dinar, 2003; Wolf, Yoffe
& Giordano, 2003).
In this article we focus on one of the potentially most
problematic cases in this respect, the Syr Darya river
basin in Central Asia. As noted by Smith: ‘Nowhere in
Corresponding author:
thbe0520@ethz.ch
Journal of Peace Research
49(1) 227–239
ªThe Author(s) 2012
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343311425843
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